Germany looks to be heading into recession and commentators are blaming trade issues. Seems the argument is that it’s a knock-on effect of China weakness.
― o. nate, Wednesday, 14 August 2019 14:58 (four years ago) link
If they hadn't happened in the first place I do think the market would be going better. The constant back and forth reversals on trade war moves has generated a lot of uncertainty and volatility that was completely unnecessary. They just haven't been enough to break things completely yet.
Trump has made a lot of foolish choices that have kept him from strengthening an already strong economy. But so far we haven't seen anything on the scale of the major cataclysms we had in the aughts: 9/11, multiple wars, the utter decimation of the mortgage industry.
xp
― Mario Meatwagon (Moodles), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 15:00 (four years ago) link
If you trade actively or semi-actively and are not buying big dips, you're crazy
― husserl gang (rip van wanko), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 15:04 (four years ago) link
tell me about these big dips.
― Yerac, Wednesday, 14 August 2019 15:08 (four years ago) link
xpost I guess that's what I'm getting at. If this is how well the economy is doing with all the volatility and uncertainties, what does "better" even look like?
― Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, 14 August 2019 15:09 (four years ago) link
Remember the "irrational exuberance" of the 90s?
Surely there are many ways things could be going better. The stock market could be moving in a straight line up. Employees could be getting real raises. Maybe we wouldn't be subsidizing all our farmers and taking on massive amounts of debt. IDK, just spitballing here...
― Mario Meatwagon (Moodles), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 15:16 (four years ago) link
Like, I think there's a pretty big difference between the economy hasn't tanked YET vs. there's no conceivable way things could possibly be any better.
― Mario Meatwagon (Moodles), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 15:18 (four years ago) link
^^^ it's all just whistling past the graveyard
― sleeve, Wednesday, 14 August 2019 15:19 (four years ago) link
"There isn't a single obvious problem area like the real estate market back in 2008"
I think this is probably right, but then again, it's a hindsight description. Until 2006 people didn't really sense the real estate market was a problem, and until 2007/08 people didn't realize just how many different ways and how badly the real estate market was poised to fuck the economy.
― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 15:20 (four years ago) link
iirc Americans actually spent a good deal of the interim paying down debt and saving.
― Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, 14 August 2019 15:24 (four years ago) link
But that trend may have long ago reversed, for all I know.
― Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, 14 August 2019 15:27 (four years ago) link
i think there are a lot of new investors who have been conditioned now to think the general market will keep going up/immediately bouncing back and won't know how to weather any real downturn. But then again they are willing to do whatever it takes so that corporations can hoard their money.
― Yerac, Wednesday, 14 August 2019 15:27 (four years ago) link
i think there are a lot of new investors who have been conditioned now to think the general market will keep going up/immediately bouncing back and won't know how to weather any real downturn.
i think this is true, and also it's interesting how if we zoom out a bit and look at the stock market over the last 50 years, almost everyone is conditioned to believe that the stock market can and will continue to grow indefinitely for the rest of our lives, even as global resource consumption exceeds the earth's resource capacity by around 4x per year and there's no way in hell that can continue
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 14 August 2019 15:30 (four years ago) link
and even as i think there is a strong likelihood that the whole thing will go to blazing hell in my life time, my entire retirement/live savings (down 2.16% today, fuck yeah!) is tied up in the system. it's cognitive dissonance on a global scale
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 14 August 2019 15:32 (four years ago) link
"the trend is your friend" the old adage goes, and we've never seen such a strong, enduring trend. betting on a real marketwide bearish reversal is surely a fool's errand rn
― husserl gang (rip van wanko), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 15:35 (four years ago) link
they are willing to do whatever it takes so that corporations can hoard their money.
if you take the viewpoint that the entire economy is basically a scam to funnel money into the offshore tax havens of the 1%, all of this makes sense. they're still sucking up wealth so they need the appearance of functionality.
― sleeve, Wednesday, 14 August 2019 15:35 (four years ago) link
oh yeah, you have to put money somewhere. But I had to work with the l3hman people for 2 years thougt, that distrust of everything doesn't go away.
― Yerac, Wednesday, 14 August 2019 15:36 (four years ago) link
xp to myself should probably add "while buying off the remnants of the middle and upper classes" after that comma
― sleeve, Wednesday, 14 August 2019 15:37 (four years ago) link
that was an xpost to karl.
― Yerac, Wednesday, 14 August 2019 15:38 (four years ago) link
betting on a real marketwide bearish reversal is surely a fool's errand rn
When you start hearing people on the bus saying this, it's time to sell, sell, sell.
― Mario Meatwagon (Moodles), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 15:43 (four years ago) link
yeah, i was about to say something similar - i hate it, but also i have nowhere else to put my money, so...emoticon shrug guy.
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 14 August 2019 15:44 (four years ago) link
xp to yerac
imo it's perfectly reasonable to invest (passively) in the financial markets b/c there's basically two possibilities for how things go, which is that either the markets continue on average to generate returns either through dividends or speculative growth, in which case you win, or the world financial system conclusively implodes due to global upheaval, which, prepper fantasies aside, is impossible to plan for.
― president of deluded fruitcakes anonymous (silby), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 16:00 (four years ago) link
Like I guess the in between scenario would be something like a global turn away from speculation and the concept of "shareholder value", which would probably have your invested principal taking a hit but potentially seeing some cash returned to you by such entities as are hoarding it.
― president of deluded fruitcakes anonymous (silby), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 16:02 (four years ago) link
doom is not hard to plan for, you just have to take all of your retirement savings out of the market and reserve a condo room in the doomsday hotel, 13 floors deep in South Dakota
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 14 August 2019 16:03 (four years ago) link
if you call that living!
― president of deluded fruitcakes anonymous (silby), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 16:03 (four years ago) link
i started a dumb thread about this recently, about how futile it seems to ever move away from our current system of corporation-driven capitalism, because the future and planning of so many people depends on it continuing (eg 401k plans)
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 14 August 2019 16:05 (four years ago) link
did you read the failing nyt's story on it yesterday? the doomsday hotel includes a pool! it is great there. some call it doomsdale
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 14 August 2019 16:06 (four years ago) link
no I try not to read articles
― president of deluded fruitcakes anonymous (silby), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 16:07 (four years ago) link
tbh i just looked at the pictures
:0
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 14 August 2019 16:07 (four years ago) link
that's the way to do it
― president of deluded fruitcakes anonymous (silby), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 16:10 (four years ago) link
it's insane that something like giving workers a raise that is still nowhere near a living wage is bad for shareholder value. xpost
― Yerac, Wednesday, 14 August 2019 16:10 (four years ago) link
It probably isn't actually bad for shareholder value and shareholders should value cash more than they do the problem is most of the shareholders are institutional investors that are just running up the score and have no material needs they actually need to address so fuck currency I guess? This is my guess.
― president of deluded fruitcakes anonymous (silby), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 16:14 (four years ago) link
One of the flaws built into the system is that, in fact, it would probably be good for shareholder value if EVERYONE got a raise (workers have more money to spend), yet it only harms your own corporation's share value to give your own workers a raise.
American capitalism is like an autoimmune disorder, is a thought that has been going through my head a lot lately.
― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 16:18 (four years ago) link
so the markets are definitely rebounding tomorrow is what I'm gathering from this
― frogbs, Wednesday, 14 August 2019 18:30 (four years ago) link
that all depends on what trump yells about china to a reporter tomorrow over the deafening roar of a nearby helicopter
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 14 August 2019 18:40 (four years ago) link
oh cool dow jones -775
― (•̪●) (carne asada), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 18:49 (four years ago) link
so much dependsupon
what trump yellsabout
china thismorrow
beside the 'cop-ter roar
― triple-washed (Sufjan Grafton), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 18:51 (four years ago) link
We are winning, big time, against China. Companies & jobs are fleeing. Prices to us have not gone up, and in some cases, have come down. China is not our problem, though Hong Kong is not helping. Our problem is with the Fed. Raised too much & too fast. Now too slow to cut....— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 14, 2019
..Spread is way too much as other countries say THANK YOU to clueless Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve. Germany, and many others, are playing the game! CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE! We should easily be reaping big Rewards & Gains, but the Fed is holding us back. We will Win!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 14, 2019
lol this man's grasp of world economics sure is something
― (•̪●) (carne asada), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 19:39 (four years ago) link
Powell was literally nominated by Trump lmao
― frogbs, Wednesday, 14 August 2019 19:41 (four years ago) link
germany playing the game by ... checks notes ... entering a recession.
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 19:51 (four years ago) link
yes, but have you considered CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE!
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 14 August 2019 20:01 (four years ago) link
Crazy Inverted World
― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 20:07 (four years ago) link
Companies & jobs are fleeing
Wait, this is... a good thing?
― Mario Meatwagon (Moodles), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 20:13 (four years ago) link
fleeing from China, I assume he means
this is a good thing for the US! those jobs are definitely coming right back into the US!
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 14 August 2019 20:16 (four years ago) link
Rewards & Gains definitly need to be reaped ! fuck those guys
― (•̪●) (carne asada), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 20:18 (four years ago) link
China has definitely taken more of a hit from the trade war than the US, however I think Trump underestimated the fact that China’s leadership doesn’t have to worry about being thrown out of office because of short term economic downturns but he does. I think China is content to wait until after the election.
― o. nate, Wednesday, 14 August 2019 20:39 (four years ago) link
i like to invert and i am crazy?
― triple-washed (Sufjan Grafton), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 20:46 (four years ago) link
When the curve inverts, it means we've opened the portal to bizarro world, and the only way to fix it is to do everything backwards.
― Mario Meatwagon (Moodles), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 20:49 (four years ago) link
I love this bond yield and its inverted curve. As a teenager, I was often teased by my friends for my attraction to bond markets on the inverted side, ones where the 2-year yield topped the 10-year, markets that the average (basic) bro might refer to as "indicating a recession"— Alex Yablon (@AlexYablon) August 14, 2019
― mookieproof, Wednesday, 14 August 2019 20:49 (four years ago) link