Rolling US Economy Into The Shitbin Thread

But that trend may have long ago reversed, for all I know.

i think there are a lot of new investors who have been conditioned now to think the general market will keep going up/immediately bouncing back and won't know how to weather any real downturn. But then again they are willing to do whatever it takes so that corporations can hoard their money.

i think there are a lot of new investors who have been conditioned now to think the general market will keep going up/immediately bouncing back and won't know how to weather any real downturn.

i think this is true, and also it's interesting how if we zoom out a bit and look at the stock market over the last 50 years, almost everyone is conditioned to believe that the stock market can and will continue to grow indefinitely for the rest of our lives, even as global resource consumption exceeds the earth's resource capacity by around 4x per year and there's no way in hell that can continue

and even as i think there is a strong likelihood that the whole thing will go to blazing hell in my life time, my entire retirement/live savings (down 2.16% today, fuck yeah!) is tied up in the system. it's cognitive dissonance on a global scale

"the trend is your friend" the old adage goes, and we've never seen such a strong, enduring trend. betting on a real marketwide bearish reversal is surely a fool's errand rn

they are willing to do whatever it takes so that corporations can hoard their money.

if you take the viewpoint that the entire economy is basically a scam to funnel money into the offshore tax havens of the 1%, all of this makes sense. they're still sucking up wealth so they need the appearance of functionality.

oh yeah, you have to put money somewhere. But I had to work with the l3hman people for 2 years thougt, that distrust of everything doesn't go away.

xp to myself should probably add "while buying off the remnants of the middle and upper classes" after that comma

that was an xpost to karl.

betting on a real marketwide bearish reversal is surely a fool's errand rn

When you start hearing people on the bus saying this, it's time to sell, sell, sell.

yeah, i was about to say something similar - i hate it, but also i have nowhere else to put my money, so...emoticon shrug guy.

xp to yerac

imo it's perfectly reasonable to invest (passively) in the financial markets b/c there's basically two possibilities for how things go, which is that either the markets continue on average to generate returns either through dividends or speculative growth, in which case you win, or the world financial system conclusively implodes due to global upheaval, which, prepper fantasies aside, is impossible to plan for.

Like I guess the in between scenario would be something like a global turn away from speculation and the concept of "shareholder value", which would probably have your invested principal taking a hit but potentially seeing some cash returned to you by such entities as are hoarding it.

doom is not hard to plan for, you just have to take all of your retirement savings out of the market and reserve a condo room in the doomsday hotel, 13 floors deep in South Dakota

if you call that living!

Like I guess the in between scenario would be something like a global turn away from speculation and the concept of "shareholder value", which would probably have your invested principal taking a hit but potentially seeing some cash returned to you by such entities as are hoarding it.

i started a dumb thread about this recently, about how futile it seems to ever move away from our current system of corporation-driven capitalism, because the future and planning of so many people depends on it continuing (eg 401k plans)

xp

did you read the failing nyt's story on it yesterday? the doomsday hotel includes a pool! it is great there. some call it doomsdale

no I try not to read articles

tbh i just looked at the pictures

:0

that's the way to do it

it's insane that something like giving workers a raise that is still nowhere near a living wage is bad for shareholder value. xpost

It probably isn't actually bad for shareholder value and shareholders should value cash more than they do the problem is most of the shareholders are institutional investors that are just running up the score and have no material needs they actually need to address so fuck currency I guess? This is my guess.

One of the flaws built into the system is that, in fact, it would probably be good for shareholder value if EVERYONE got a raise (workers have more money to spend), yet it only harms your own corporation's share value to give your own workers a raise.

American capitalism is like an autoimmune disorder, is a thought that has been going through my head a lot lately.

so the markets are definitely rebounding tomorrow is what I'm gathering from this

that all depends on what trump yells about china to a reporter tomorrow over the deafening roar of a nearby helicopter

oh cool dow jones -775

so much depends
upon

what trump yells
about

china this
morrow

beside the 'cop
-ter roar

We are winning, big time, against China. Companies & jobs are fleeing. Prices to us have not gone up, and in some cases, have come down. China is not our problem, though Hong Kong is not helping. Our problem is with the Fed. Raised too much & too fast. Now too slow to cut....

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 14, 2019

..Spread is way too much as other countries say THANK YOU to clueless Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve. Germany, and many others, are playing the game! CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE! We should easily be reaping big Rewards & Gains, but the Fed is holding us back. We will Win!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 14, 2019

lol this man's grasp of world economics sure is something

Powell was literally nominated by Trump lmao

germany playing the game by ... checks notes ... entering a recession.

yes, but have you considered CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE!

Crazy Inverted World

Companies & jobs are fleeing

Wait, this is... a good thing?

fleeing from China, I assume he means

this is a good thing for the US! those jobs are definitely coming right back into the US!

Rewards & Gains definitly need to be reaped ! fuck those guys

China has definitely taken more of a hit from the trade war than the US, however I think Trump underestimated the fact that China’s leadership doesn’t have to worry about being thrown out of office because of short term economic downturns but he does. I think China is content to wait until after the election.

i like to invert and i am crazy?

When the curve inverts, it means we've opened the portal to bizarro world, and the only way to fix it is to do everything backwards.

I love this bond yield and its inverted curve. As a teenager, I was often teased by my friends for my attraction to bond markets on the inverted side, ones where the 2-year yield topped the 10-year, markets that the average (basic) bro might refer to as "indicating a recession"

— Alex Yablon (@AlexYablon) August 14, 2019

these after hours seem calmer than last time

i guess everyone just assumes it will bounce back tomorrow ?

Why wouldn't it? Why wouldn't people assume that?

Many will, and they may be correct. The day will come where it doesn't bounce back, and it'll probably be sooner rather than later.

fwiw the single biggest trade today is someone betting that it will be back by october https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-14/someone-s-betting-big-on-an-s-p-500-rebound-as-sell-off-worsens?srnd=premium

the US tech industry is not big enough to cause a global recession, but wework's *insane* S-1 (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-14/wework-ipo-shows-it-s-the-most-magical-unicorn?srnd=opinion) and uber losing $20bn (with a b) a year do seem significant

the US tech industry is not big enough to cause a global recession

And yet the US tech industry (or at least Facebook, Apple, Google, Amazon) is the closest we have right now to Too Big to Fail. I think their total valuation is something like $3 trillion? That's, what, more than 10% of the US GDP?

Didn't it do just that in 2001?

Nothing like 2008. Less deep where it happened and less global

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_2000s_recession

Think we may be in for more pain tomorrow, but there are certainly steps that can be taking to smooth things. This article sums up some of the available options. Just a question of whether the political will exists for any of it.

https://slate.com/business/2019/08/recession-economy-bond-market-yield-curve-trade-china-germany.html?via=homepage_taps_top