no I try not to read articles
― president of deluded fruitcakes anonymous (silby), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 16:07 (four years ago) link
tbh i just looked at the pictures
:0
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 14 August 2019 16:07 (four years ago) link
that's the way to do it
― president of deluded fruitcakes anonymous (silby), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 16:10 (four years ago) link
it's insane that something like giving workers a raise that is still nowhere near a living wage is bad for shareholder value. xpost
― Yerac, Wednesday, 14 August 2019 16:10 (four years ago) link
It probably isn't actually bad for shareholder value and shareholders should value cash more than they do the problem is most of the shareholders are institutional investors that are just running up the score and have no material needs they actually need to address so fuck currency I guess? This is my guess.
― president of deluded fruitcakes anonymous (silby), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 16:14 (four years ago) link
One of the flaws built into the system is that, in fact, it would probably be good for shareholder value if EVERYONE got a raise (workers have more money to spend), yet it only harms your own corporation's share value to give your own workers a raise.
American capitalism is like an autoimmune disorder, is a thought that has been going through my head a lot lately.
― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 16:18 (four years ago) link
so the markets are definitely rebounding tomorrow is what I'm gathering from this
― frogbs, Wednesday, 14 August 2019 18:30 (four years ago) link
that all depends on what trump yells about china to a reporter tomorrow over the deafening roar of a nearby helicopter
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 14 August 2019 18:40 (four years ago) link
oh cool dow jones -775
― (•̪●) (carne asada), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 18:49 (four years ago) link
so much dependsupon
what trump yellsabout
china thismorrow
beside the 'cop-ter roar
― triple-washed (Sufjan Grafton), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 18:51 (four years ago) link
We are winning, big time, against China. Companies & jobs are fleeing. Prices to us have not gone up, and in some cases, have come down. China is not our problem, though Hong Kong is not helping. Our problem is with the Fed. Raised too much & too fast. Now too slow to cut....— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 14, 2019
..Spread is way too much as other countries say THANK YOU to clueless Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve. Germany, and many others, are playing the game! CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE! We should easily be reaping big Rewards & Gains, but the Fed is holding us back. We will Win!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 14, 2019
lol this man's grasp of world economics sure is something
― (•̪●) (carne asada), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 19:39 (four years ago) link
Powell was literally nominated by Trump lmao
― frogbs, Wednesday, 14 August 2019 19:41 (four years ago) link
germany playing the game by ... checks notes ... entering a recession.
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 19:51 (four years ago) link
yes, but have you considered CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE!
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 14 August 2019 20:01 (four years ago) link
Crazy Inverted World
― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 20:07 (four years ago) link
Companies & jobs are fleeing
Wait, this is... a good thing?
― Mario Meatwagon (Moodles), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 20:13 (four years ago) link
fleeing from China, I assume he means
this is a good thing for the US! those jobs are definitely coming right back into the US!
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 14 August 2019 20:16 (four years ago) link
Rewards & Gains definitly need to be reaped ! fuck those guys
― (•̪●) (carne asada), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 20:18 (four years ago) link
China has definitely taken more of a hit from the trade war than the US, however I think Trump underestimated the fact that China’s leadership doesn’t have to worry about being thrown out of office because of short term economic downturns but he does. I think China is content to wait until after the election.
― o. nate, Wednesday, 14 August 2019 20:39 (four years ago) link
i like to invert and i am crazy?
― triple-washed (Sufjan Grafton), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 20:46 (four years ago) link
When the curve inverts, it means we've opened the portal to bizarro world, and the only way to fix it is to do everything backwards.
― Mario Meatwagon (Moodles), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 20:49 (four years ago) link
I love this bond yield and its inverted curve. As a teenager, I was often teased by my friends for my attraction to bond markets on the inverted side, ones where the 2-year yield topped the 10-year, markets that the average (basic) bro might refer to as "indicating a recession"— Alex Yablon (@AlexYablon) August 14, 2019
― mookieproof, Wednesday, 14 August 2019 20:49 (four years ago) link
these after hours seem calmer than last time
― triple-washed (Sufjan Grafton), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 20:56 (four years ago) link
i guess everyone just assumes it will bounce back tomorrow ?
― (•̪●) (carne asada), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 21:05 (four years ago) link
Why wouldn't it? Why wouldn't people assume that?
― Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, 14 August 2019 21:18 (four years ago) link
Many will, and they may be correct. The day will come where it doesn't bounce back, and it'll probably be sooner rather than later.
― Mario Meatwagon (Moodles), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 21:21 (four years ago) link
fwiw the single biggest trade today is someone betting that it will be back by october https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-14/someone-s-betting-big-on-an-s-p-500-rebound-as-sell-off-worsens?srnd=premium
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 21:22 (four years ago) link
the US tech industry is not big enough to cause a global recession, but wework's *insane* S-1 (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-14/wework-ipo-shows-it-s-the-most-magical-unicorn?srnd=opinion) and uber losing $20bn (with a b) a year do seem significant
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 22:38 (four years ago) link
the US tech industry is not big enough to cause a global recession
And yet the US tech industry (or at least Facebook, Apple, Google, Amazon) is the closest we have right now to Too Big to Fail. I think their total valuation is something like $3 trillion? That's, what, more than 10% of the US GDP?
― Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, 14 August 2019 23:15 (four years ago) link
Didn't it do just that in 2001?
― nickn, Thursday, 15 August 2019 00:37 (four years ago) link
Nothing like 2008. Less deep where it happened and less globalhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_2000s_recession
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Thursday, 15 August 2019 00:46 (four years ago) link
Think we may be in for more pain tomorrow, but there are certainly steps that can be taking to smooth things. This article sums up some of the available options. Just a question of whether the political will exists for any of it.
https://slate.com/business/2019/08/recession-economy-bond-market-yield-curve-trade-china-germany.html?via=homepage_taps_top
― Mario Meatwagon (Moodles), Thursday, 15 August 2019 02:18 (four years ago) link
“Sure, keeping borrowing costs down might encourage some bad lending or investment bubbles that could lead to problems down the line, but that concern should probably be outweighed by the near and present danger of an actual recession. ”
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Thursday, 15 August 2019 02:39 (four years ago) link
article asks for lowering rates from the fed (expansionary monetary policy), raising infrastructure spending (expansionary fiscal policy), and stopping trade war (trade policy). i only have faith that one of these (fed) will get done.
― Carisis LaVerted (m bison), Thursday, 15 August 2019 02:54 (four years ago) link
I could see Trump flinching on the trade war. There's nothing driving it except his pride. If someone tells him he'll be more popular if he drops it, he may well listen.
Infrastructure seems extremely unlikely despite the fact it's presumably a bipartisan goal.
― Mario Meatwagon (Moodles), Thursday, 15 August 2019 03:01 (four years ago) link
Infrastructure spending would require passing a budget, so that’s not happening
― El Tomboto, Thursday, 15 August 2019 03:11 (four years ago) link
China is content to wait until after the election.
They've been targeting their own tarriffs/cessation of purchases on swing states. They clearly are using the means at their disposal. I don't think the success of Russian active measures escaped their attention either.
― hedonic treadmill class action (Sanpaku), Thursday, 15 August 2019 04:48 (four years ago) link
Looks like we aren't getting day 2 of market tanking. Guess that's a good sign.
― Mario Meatwagon (Moodles), Thursday, 15 August 2019 13:58 (four years ago) link
― o. nate
oh haha there are still people who believe america is a "democracy"
― Abigail, Wife of Preserved Fish (rushomancy), Thursday, 15 August 2019 14:33 (four years ago) link
When was the last big stock drop that wasn't reversed within a few days?
― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 15 August 2019 14:46 (four years ago) link
the days after the brexit vote should've lasted longer. then there was 1Q 2016 when china's new circuit breaker kept going off at the beginning of the year and all of 2015 was bad for them.
― Yerac, Thursday, 15 August 2019 14:55 (four years ago) link
Yeah, but how about the US?
― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 15 August 2019 14:57 (four years ago) link
All that stuff affected the US. I guess last december it seemed like the market would really reverse but then it came back.
― Yerac, Thursday, 15 August 2019 14:58 (four years ago) link
That's the thing. It's one thing to affect the market, it's another thing to alter it or reverse it. If the market goes down, then goes right back up again, then it hasn't really been affected, especially if it keeps going up. There's definitely a high-dive precariousness to its ongoing ascent, all things considered, but it beats the alternative. It's like when Facebook dropped big last year or so, and there were all these sky-is-falling predictions (for 12 hours), but I have a good friend who does trading stuff, and he was all, well, yeah, it looked like a big drop, but Facebook is worth a bazillion dollars, so any drop is going to look huge.
― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 15 August 2019 15:04 (four years ago) link
I guess it depends on if you are talking about the general health of the market and economy or if you are talking about trading on a certain timeline. Like, you can trade the market in both directions and make money and everyone has a different timeline, expectation for what they are trading.
― Yerac, Thursday, 15 August 2019 15:06 (four years ago) link
This is why almost all 401ks only can hold preselected mutual funds, it's the expectation that a basket of stocks/indexes are a safety against one company going under and wiping out your entire account because the expectation is that companies will continue to grow in value.
― Yerac, Thursday, 15 August 2019 15:09 (four years ago) link
For sure. But day trading or whatever, frequent trading, it's risky but not because of broader trends so much as the challenge and timing of taking advantage of regular ups and downs. Trying to make a quick back and forth buck can be trouble no matter the state of the economy. But the bigger picture is that for all the instability, the market has been remarkably, inexplicably stable, and for all the uncertainty, it's still probably the best bet, in terms of investment. Keep your money invested and historically it will grow in value. Cashing out is a gamble no matter what is going on.
― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 15 August 2019 15:13 (four years ago) link
Someone else on this board is a daytrader (sanpaku?). I wouldn't call myself because I don't make multiple trades every single day but when I do my taxes it is ~500 trades a year. It really depends on the person and their risk appetite/management. But in general, if you have investments in the market and aren't right on the cusp of retirement, you shouldn't have much to worry about.
― Yerac, Thursday, 15 August 2019 15:18 (four years ago) link
Which is always the case, right? At least when the economy is fundamentally strong. If the US were on the cusp of some sort of collapse, like the housing market went through 10-ish years back, clearly that takes longer to bounce back from. But I suspect many, many more Americans have at least some relationship with real estate (rent to mortgage) than they do with the stock market.
― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 15 August 2019 15:25 (four years ago) link
A whistleblower who warned regulators about Bernie Madoff released a report alleging that General Electric is short on cash and hiding $38 billion in losses, calling it a "bigger fraud than Enron" https://t.co/CmTMZ1e7VK— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) August 15, 2019
this seems very bad!
― Simon H., Thursday, 15 August 2019 15:48 (four years ago) link