outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

My best friend is coming to visit me next week and I am in a place throbbing with chinese and japanese tourists right now. We do not have a very good record of trips together. She got swine flu on our trip to Belize and Mexico like 10 years ago. And that was not even in the top 3 of worst things that has happened. I should probably get some kerosene and matches.

I would say hand sanitizer and face masks but maybe you’re going in the scorched bedding and body bag direction?

these are pragmatic times!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EPct4t5X0AAofxW?format=jpg&name=large

Just saw that the number of confirmed cases of the Wuhan coronavirus has overtaken the 2003 SARS outbreak inside of mainland China.

Also a reminder (via a doctor on the radio) that face masks help prevent you from transmitting stuff, but don't necessarily prevent you from contracting stuff. You need a much higher grade of mask for that, the kind doctors wear.

I'd imagine the form-fitting N95 masks I have do a respectable job of reducing inhaled bronchial aerosols. The main problem will be that not many people have the experience from infectious medicine health care to remove them, gloves, and other protective clothing in a way that doesn't contaminate their bodies or home. The closest experience I have is cancer cell culture in a lab (ambient microbes kill human cell lines in petri dishes), which took days to learn. I imagine if it comes to a lockdown, I could set up my apt entrance with a small table, waste bin, hand sanitizer, spray bottles of Everclear and bleach. Outer garments left outside, laundry bagged, everything sprayed down with bleach and then covered with a tarp and weights to prevent air circulation.

There are already runs on masks at home improvement stores through the US. Later today I plan on seeing the situation on hand-sanitizer. 190 proof grain neutral spirits in a spray bottle will do in a pinch, though, and are just a dilution away from vodka.

I'm filling a tub with bourbon, just to be safe.

that face masks help prevent you from transmitting stuff, but don't necessarily prevent you from contracting stuff.

can you explain? does not compute that virus can go one direction but not the other. i'm actually interning in san bernardino county EHS dept. and would ask, but they're all out preparing/taking care of the flight that is arriving @ a air force base

that was a xpost.

then there's also the fact that people are gonna feel protected with the mask, like gloves in a kitchen and wear them too long and wash hands too infrequently ime.
not to mention you only get a seal with fitted masks. i wonder how eyes being exposed adds to risk also.

it makes sense that your sneezes / moisture go straight into the cotton but air comes in through the sides of the mask where there are gaps.

xpost I'm not a doctor, but yeah, what I heard seemed to imply that while they can't hurt, their effectiveness is unclear, and because they are frequently loose fitting or worn (or disposed of) improperly, droplets and the like can indeed get in. The best way to avoid illness is (duh) to avoid being around sick people, and also to wash your hands a lot.

Not necessarily if the mask isn't fitted
Xpost
Asked a supervisor and the nurses on hand are wearing full face masks.
He also said the common over the ear type are pretty useless for this sort of thing

My understanding is that there are more vectors for the virii getting into your body than just the mouth. Your hands touch contaminated objects then you touch your eyes, nose, etc.

that face masks help prevent you from transmitting stuff, but don't necessarily prevent you from contracting stuff.

can you explain? does not compute that virus can go one direction but not the other.

Also you wear a mask for a bit, you have a nice little warm moist petri dish sitting in front of your mouth and nose to aspirate from.

frequent hand-washing and not touching eyes/nose/mouth are more important preventative measures than wearing a face mask

there are lots of current things online from doctors about the worthiness of facemasks (medical and N95).

anyway, one of my favorite videos from last year was Naomi Campbell's cleaning routine when she flies. It starts around 2:30. Puts on the gloves, sanitize wipes everything down, puts her personal clean blanket over the seat, hydration masks, face masks. I went through a phase where I was alcohol wiping everything down on planes when flying. It helped so much.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b-U_jT9qWvs

anyways, i saw a article that talked about a Chinese doctor a week or so ago that contracted the virus through his eyes. he confirmed it. those too, are a mucous membrane, mind.

starting to get a wee bit nervous about this one. nobody seems to have any idea wtf to do about it

A French patient is currently being treated with paracetamol in Bordeaux, so we're good.

Usually French doctors load you up with three prescriptions for various things just to be safe!

xxp I might not be paying enough attention here but isn’t it less deadly than both SARS and MERS? There’s nothing besides trying to stop the spread that can really be done, just try to take normal precautions. Obviously shit for anyone immunocompromised, but so is flu season.

If I understand correctly, it's less lethal than SARS but more so than the regular flu.

There is no regular flu. Some variants are worse than others and they can generally only vaccinate for a few strains anyway.

Sorry, I worded it wrong: more like 'average'.

I was flummoxed when the WHO called this an 'internal Chinese affair' just ten days ago. Anyone could see this would spread, and fast, in today's world. Not sure what to think of the French and Dutch sending planes to "bring back" citizens though.

Canada hesitated at first and will now be doing the same. On a purely emotional level, I'm glad they made this call as one of my ex-colleagues who married a guy from Wuhan is currently stuck there with their two children. None of them are exhibiting any symptoms (so far) but no matter what happens they're better off in a Canadian quarantine for the next few weeks than smack dab in the infection's middle, so to speak.

The shoddy handling of repatriations, the ridiculous assurances from the WHO, both bad, but the real trouble is from the Chinese government keeping it secret for weeks.

If anyone feels like watching it, here is a scary real-time map https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Not clicking on that lol.

Pom, I'm glad your ex-colleague is ok and will have the chance to return. Can she bring her husband and kids though? (there was a story about a Dutch man who had to choose between staying or going back but having to leave his wife there...)

Her husband and the kids are all Canadian citizens, so it thankfully won't be an issue. I did come across that story you mention – just awful.

As an aside, the Sinophobia that has predictably erupted to the surface in the West (and elsewhere) as a result of this ordeal is just as depressing.

…with France unsurprisingly at the forefront:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51294305

It's as predictable as it is ugly, indeed, but I've not seen it as awful as that. Ugh.

I tried to take my collleagues to a (very good) Hunan restaurant in Sydney and was overruled. Chinese restaurants appear very empty here and normally this would be a very busy time just after lunar new year. A mixture of a massive drop in incoming Chinese tourists and people being stupid and racist it seems.

bloke on the tv just now saying that we should be better at this and spend the time between outbreaks preparing antidotes for the next virus. isn't the point of these outbreaks that they are new and can't be predicted / prepared for? there's no universal antivirus that'll work against everything, is there?

(the guy was some american politician, responsible for some kinds of chemical attack preparedness)

(joe lieberman. from the Bipartisan Commission on Biodefense)

FYI we hate him, he is the worst

My friend in singapore just canceled his short trip to HK. I thought that was a bit much but I guess if you wouldn't feel comfortable moving about freely in HK then I guess? The price gouging of face masks online right now is ridiculous.

Officially a WHO global health emergency (well, yeah).

xp: Lieberman's an idiot. There is constant monitoring of emergent flu strains in order to identify which may pose the greatest risk in the following year, but creating, testing, and distributing each year's flu vaccine still takes the better part of a year.

For novel zoonotic diseases, there are no shortcuts. It still generally takes over six months to identify the pathogen, culture it in animals or cell lines, devise a way of attenuating it's virulence while maintaining its ability to provoke immunity, testing, upscaling production, and distributing a new vaccine.

I think a lot of countries are going to look at China's lockdown of Hubei, which went far beyond the WHO's recommendations, for insights on how to slow emergent epidemics. I suspect when this is over it will have saved thousands of lives. You can bet the US CDC, FEMA and military will be talking.

To prevent this in the first place, we'd need to convince entire nations to not fux with wild animals, which are the reservoirs for novel epidemic strains. Hemorrhagic fever outbreaks in Africa generally stem from the bushmeat trade. China shut down wet markets like the one in Wuhan for several years after the 2003 SARS outbreak. The WHO could push nations to inspect their CAFOs to ensure they're not being used by wild bats (source of both SARS and 2019 nCoV) as shelters, etc.

they sell bush meat all over the place in London. Brixton market definitely. i have to say i'm amazed something like this hasn't happened in London.

yeah I live a short walk away from the main bushmeat market in Paris (the marché Dejean)

I think the difference is in China the animals are often live. It’s the mixing of live animals that presents the biggest risk. Flu viruses tend to originate in southern China due to the close proximity of pigs, poultry and humans in a hot and humid climate.

I went to costco today to pick up contacts and I saw a white woman with a facemask on trying on multiple pairs of glasses. I was irritated but also couldn't settle on what part of it I was most irritated by.

Don't worry. Fashion will endure the apocalypse.

http://313ct818yszd3xd6xa2z47nm-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Vogmask-Faceslap-HKFW14-Show-026-1.jpg

First 2019-nCoV death outside of China (in the Phillipines), global toll hits 304. Only 328 recovered.
14,380 cases, with 19,544 suspected (there's a shortage of diagnostic kit and hence significant lag).

Coincidental that UK evacuees are travelling in four Horsemen buses.
https://i.imgur.com/K0afFK5.jpg

This is nuts

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/coronavirus-and-travel-to-china-foreign-secretarys-statement-4-february-2020

In light of the ongoing coronavirus outbreak, the Foreign & Commonwealth Office advises against ‘all but essential’ travel to mainland China and now recommends that British Nationals who are able to leave China do so.

On the one hand, I appreciate them taking this so seriously. On the other hand, they are taking this even more seriously than many of the news reports have indicated it merits, which makes me think that it's worse than they're letting on.

There has been some talk about why Xi has not appeared in public for over a week now, lots of different theories, all of them worrying in different ways.

First confirmed cases of local transmission in Singapore today - though affecting people who had direct contact with Chinese tourists.

There's a lot of stupid conspiracy theory crap going around, as usual, but this feels like it's kinda based on science, dunno?
The theory is: the virus was developed for developing vaccines but got out of a lab:

https://jameslyonsweiler.com/2020/01/30/on-the-origins-of-the-2019-ncov-virus-wuhan-china/