END TO END BERNERS: The Official Bernie Sanders 2020 Crew thread

so wait what does the SDE number actually...mean? they're for delegates at a statewide convention, except, as I understand it, there is no statewide convention?

looool they really just dngaf about winning at the cost of possibly upsetting rich donors and consultant slime do they

Lol Majority Report had a caller who went to caucus for Bernie but only Pete and Amy were viable at his precinct. He ended up sticking around to help people navigate the reporting issues and since he knew more than anyone else they signed him up to be a delegate, but didn’t specify for whom. He was like is it cheating for me to vote for Bernie?

so wait what does the SDE number actually...mean? they're for delegates at a statewide convention, except, as I understand it, there is no statewide convention?

― bold caucasian eroticism (Simon H.), 5. februar 2020 14:36 (twenty-five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Sorry, it's long, but from the 538 explainer:

the final alignment is translated into something called state delegate equivalents, which is the third way that Iowa counts its vote. Until this year, in fact, this was the only way that Iowa counted its vote. It comes from a now archaic process where the caucuses technically served to elect delegates to county conventions, which in turn elected delegates to district conventions and the state convention, which in turn elected delegates to the Democratic National Convention.

This process is no longer used — delegates to the DNC will be elected based on caucus night results. However, state delegate equivalents are still used to determine essentially how much weight each precinct gets in determining DNC delegates.

The catch is that these weights are based on the number of votes that Hillary Clinton got in the general election in 2016 and that Democratic gubernatorial candidate Fred Hubbell got in the 2018 general election. And this can create some distortions. General election turnout is much higher than caucus turnout; 630,000 Iowans voted for Hubbell in 2018 and 650,000 did for Clinton in the general election in 2016. By comparison, 172,000 Democrats participated in the 2016 caucuses. Additionally, a higher share of caucus turnout tends to come from more liberal, upscale, urban and suburban counties and/or counties with colleges and universities, and proportionately less of it from rural counties.

Essentially, then, rural votes are likely to give candidates more bang for the buck in terms of state delegate equivalents. Candidates whose voters are mostly concentrated in liberal, highly populous counties are liable to underperform, conversely. There are various estimates out there as to who this is liable to help or hurt. But my read on the evidence is that Warren and to a lesser extent Sanders are likely to be hurt by it. Warren’s vote is mostly concentrated in upscale suburbs, and Sanders is hoping for big turnout surges in counties with a lot of young voters. Conversely, Klobuchar and Buttigieg have put a lot of emphasis on covering Iowa’s entire map and could benefit from this process. So could Biden, whose voters should be older, more working-class and more rural. To repeat, none of this is reflected in our model, which stops at the final alignment stage.

But despite being somewhat convoluted — and do Democrats really want to give more weight to rural areas given the party’s complaints about the non-representativeness of the U.S. Senate and the Electoral College? — state delegate equivalents are likely to get a fair amount of attention on election night. It’s the metric that the various networks and news agencies are used to using to declare winners. And it is technically the measure that is used to determine delegates to the Democratic National Convention, although the importance of Iowa comes from the momentum it produces rather than the number of delegates it has.

As you can probably infer, we personally don’t buy that state delegate equivalents is necessarily a superior measure to the other two.

To the extent Bernie candidacy is predicated on higher enthusiasm of supporters then lower turnout in Iowa is not a great indicator, regardless of how final vote count comes out.

in theory I agree but I'd like to know more about the demos that did and did not turn out, kif they ever feel like releasing full data on the goddamn race lol

Kind of feel like throwing a small donation to Bernie right now just as a fuck you to Iowa

Be prepared to weather a barrage of texts if you do.

Kind of feel like throwing a small donation to Bernie right now just as a fuck you to Iowa

― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Wednesday, February 5, 2020 1:03 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

^^^
Fuck this cornfed state whose entire political purpose is to post "first" on a thread every four years.

Ha, I won't get to listen till later but that appears to be very much the opening premise of the new episode.

fuck will saletan (again)

what a shitshow. i think pete engaged in some monkey business.

bernie sanders

sad to say, if pete actually managed to pull off a small coup by cleverly fucking with the iowa caucus results, without getting caught at it, then he is demonstrating more aptitude to be president than I gave him credit for.

sorry for ch*po-posting on the wrong thread. would donate for my penance if I could

Yep.

Xpost

Helps to have the CIA in yr corner

that Kornacki clip is INSANE

I watched it live and needed several drinks myself.

hey, looks like you accidentally swapped deval patrick's (left) and bernie's (right) columns in the rows between WL 3-4 and WL 4-2. you also switched tom steyer and elizabeth warren's results for the same rows. looking forward to a speedy fix. pic.twitter.com/SCJo84LIlu

— phil (@PhilJamesson) February 5, 2020

just want to chime in and say i'm one more person who finds your incessant tweet embeds extremely annoying

Been thinking of joining the canvasses in WA state just across the river. Their primary is like 2.5 months before Oregon’s is

WA also is worth more delegates than OR.

been thinking about taking a week off work, driving down to SC

Alright alright. I had some misinformation around Bernie and atheism. He has publicly said he isn’t an atheist. I am sorry for spreading misinformation. Posting this new podcast here for those who care about these matters. Deleting the original thread. https://t.co/LnVKKNJ2eL

— Brittney Cooper (@ProfessorCrunk) February 6, 2020

Whoa pic.twitter.com/aBIqwsSGWP

— absolute angel (@InternetHippo) February 6, 2020

apparently Bernie is making a statement on Iowa at 1pm ET

This is for everyone who has ever been an intern. pic.twitter.com/3XxBUPfF7E

— Anand Something (@AnandWrites) February 6, 2020

lol guys showing up at Bernie rally in deer blood-soaked camo

https://t.co/kT5UHIMf7E pic.twitter.com/zM4enfsAvq

— Osita Nwanevu (@OsitaNwanevu) February 6, 2020

already being discussed on the primary thread, do keep up

I saw it. I am using this thread for the joke tweets.

not a shot at you here xyz but it really does amaze me that a war criminal committed suicide on live feed and now its just another meme

just part of the culture's process of metabolism now

Kissinger did what now?

your mom

I guess power really is the ultimate aphrodisiac

‘Οὖτις’s mom has got it goin’ on’

https://static.politifact.com/politifact/photos/AP_18312324592700.jpg

not a shot at you here xyz but it really does amaze me that a war criminal committed suicide on live feed and now its just another meme

― BIG HOOS aka the steendriver, Thursday, 6 February 2020 bookmarkflaglink

It was quite a day when I saw news of the suicide to twitter wide meme in a few hours, and then found myself laughing through it all.

He was a fascist though so good not bad.

we have had to move pretty quickly to find ways to make all of the available things happening on the internet processable and balance the "real"/"not necessarily relevant to me" mental load

part of the manifestation of this is fascist-war-criminal-suicide meme cycles shortening, most of the rest is less good

I'm sorry, which fascist committed suicide? idgi

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/02/democratic-primary-biden-bernie-sanders-buttigieg-klobuchar-bloomberg-liberal.html

Chait thinks Bernie is doomed in the general

I think he’d be right if the average millennial was a homeowner or otherwise felt like a stakeholder in american capitalism. But alas

fucks sake i thought kissinger was dead for a second you cunts

Trump just committed suicide on air. Whoa.

xp to outic:

https://t.co/kT5UHIMf7E pic.twitter.com/zM4enfsAvq

— Osita Nwanevu (@OsitaNwanevu) February 6, 2020

xp frís i considered that but

mostly i was bracing for the ensuing tidal wave from people bouncing up and down and laughing

I can't see embedded tweets on politics threads for some reason so can someone just type a fucking sentence already

slobodan praljak

where's the verb in that?!?!?!?!

some of y'all need to go back to schoolhouse rock

just gave another $27 to the campaign. feels good.