END TO END BERNERS: The Official Bernie Sanders 2020 Crew thread

I give the yglesias and co credit for coming around on Bernie -- my theory is that they recognize that he's the likely nominee and they think the right thing to do is get behind him as much as possible now rather than try to hobble him heading into the general.

don't think pete's a spook but out of the candidates he strikes me as most likely to just do whatever the CIA tells him to do so what's the difference really

― ℺ ☽ ⋠ ⏎ (✖), Tuesday, February 11, 2020 11:20 AM (thirty-two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

webinar-ing in 80 minutes for textbanking let's go https://berniesanders.com/en/text/webinars/

― ℺ ☽ ⋠ ⏎ (✖), Tuesday, February 11, 2020 1:09 AM (nineteen hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

my man!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

- I like Bernie but he ended up endorsing Hillary in 2016, so I won't vote for him.
- I like Bernie but I hate the Democratic party more, so since he's running as a Democrat I won't vote for him.

collect 'em all

― Dan I., Tuesday, February 11, 2020 1:57 PM (seven hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

god both these positions are so deeply brainwormed

Before and after voting for Bernie Sanders pic.twitter.com/xBRtwSC3y6

— honest jabe (@jaynooch) February 11, 2020

xp haven't been able to actually do any texts because there's so many volunteers right now!

kinda want to be a volunteer slack helper but sounds like they want you to have a solid amount of experience first

do phone banking! I'm doing it now and I'm total introvert.

re: brainwormed wrecker people

Every time pic.twitter.com/nRNuSsgaDB

— Logic and Joyner Lucas explaining BDS (@LateNightNelly) February 11, 2020

all i see there is someone getting trolled

do phone banking! I'm doing it now and I'm total introvert.

― dsb, Tuesday, February 11, 2020 5:16 PM (forty-five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

did the training for it, gonna buy a cheapo headset tomorrow i think

weirdly the phone bank training is way less intensive than text bank training, you can be ready to go in 10 minutes https://berniesanders.com/call/

If Dems go on to nominate Sanders, the Russians will have to reconsider who to work for to best screw up the US. Sanders is just as polarizing as Trump AND he’ll ruin our economy and doesn’t care about our military. If I’m Russian, I go with Sanders this time around.

— Lloyd Blankfein (@lloydblankfein) February 12, 2020

Lloyd says he is a "Former CEO on a gap year". Right-o me bucko. CEO of what?

Bernie didn't do as well as he should have. He underperformed, just like in Iowa. RCP had him +7 day of for both and it ended up really tight. Reverse situation from last time.

Winning was a huge blow to Sanders tonight. Buttigieg lost, which is clearly a win for him, especially losing to Sanders, to whom he's lost twice now, making Sanders' win even more disappointing. Team Sanders needs a big loss to win next time

— Brendan James (@deep_beige) February 12, 2020

Sanders' drop in support since '16 has been observable in every piece of data published about this primary for over two years, including NH polls. It's an unremarkable fact about a different race with a larger field. Folks bringing it up now are spinning, not having epiphanies.

— Osita Nwanevu (@OsitaNwanevu) February 12, 2020

Ratio:

Pete Buttigieg finishes second in New Hampshire primary, Amy Klobuchar third - Edison Research. Live updates: https://t.co/pySqBsgaOW #NHprimary2020 pic.twitter.com/jzNxBwMjmT

— Reuters (@Reuters) February 12, 2020

CNN says turn out is up 20 percent from 2016. Vindication for the Sanders approach. When broken down by age, it's likely that youth turnout will prove to be much higher than that.

— Alex Sammon (@alex_sammon) February 12, 2020

I saw elsewhere he got 60% of the vote last time (to HRC's 37%), so I would have thought him "bringing out the vote" would leave him much higher in the results.

Martin O'Malley pulled out after Iowa last time, getting 0.26% of the vote on the day, ahead of fourth-place winner Vermin Love Supreme.

disastrous victory for sanders, im hearing

My Butteigeig bro last night:
“Unless warren drops out soon, it looks like the race will be buttigieg’s to lose - who thought he’d be placing so well in the primaries?”

Me:????

Him: “Who’s left then? Does Biden turn any of this around as he moves west?”

🙃🙃🙃🙃🙃

A moral victory, perhaps? It was a tie in the delegate count, in the state where Sanders was expected to have the easiest time.xp

I would go with "victory" victory. Since he won and everything.

I think what just threw me was that he literally did not even consider sanders as viable. Not in an an anti agonistic sense per se. more just “huh, Bernie. Yeah curious”

He’s a cable news/ vaguely liberal MSM Facebook newsfeed junkie, and just can’t fathom Bernie being a legitimate contender.

i never thought id see the thread crossover to the tottenham thread so beautifully xp

and he’s a “Buttigieg-bro” insofar as he’s got permanent West Wing/ Obama brain, not that he thinks Pete is the Way the Truth and the Light

Xpost

I'm very pro-Sanders but he didn't actually win either state except in terms of the popular vote afaict? Or does that somehow get factored in at the end. 3xp

I've totally talked to someone like that too, will.

xxxp three points is three points

sanders didnt run up the score like i hoped, but his biggest challenger (biden) for the rest of the campaign has finished 4th and 5th respectively and another moderate is entering the fray on super tuesday to pick at biden's corpse. as biden's (and sanders' i guess) most formidable challenger, buttigieg has really awful numbers with voters of color who will play a much larger role in future states and it remains to be seen how much a bloomberg media blitz can convince a large enough number of voters to show up that would actually pull enough delegates to mount a serious run. klobuchar's sudden competitiveness only hastens warren's demise which in theory shd benefit sanders, too, given how many warren voters in NH are ideologically progressive.

basically, sanders can consolidate his base while the moderate 4 continue to pull in different directions until march when a ton of delegates are decided upon.

it's gonna be weird at the convention when they can't release the balloons because he didn't cover the spread

Buttigieg is polling awfully in the south, and it's really showing up the bias of the 'electability' people, that when a candidate - Buttigieg - is so distasteful to the black base as to be unelectable in the primary, they just ignore it.

Another interesting thing I keep seeing from my fb feed (which is probably mostly Warren and Pete supporters) is... “yeah, wait til we get to the states where not everyone’s white and old!”

yes. yes let’s.

A moral victory, perhaps? It was a tie in the delegate count, in the state where Sanders was expected to have the easiest time.xp

― With considerable charm, you still have made a choice (Sund4r), Wednesday, February 12, 2020 7:23 AM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

It's also a state that should've had perfect demographics for butti and klob, more so than for bernie

Can't believe I'm saying it but let's see how SC goes

Mayor Pete is probably the least pragmatic choice ever supported by people thinking themselves to be pragmatists. I truly cannot fathom the blindness of some of the people I know who support him (here in NYC, which is one of his strongholds). "America will never back a leftist candidate! That's why I'm donating to a 38-year-old white gay college town mayor who speaks Norwegian and always looks like he's doing a romantic monologue in the high school musical."

He's the Ralph Bellamy in the musical

"'Merica, I just met a girl called 'Merica..."

Bernie DID underperform last night. Conservative projections had him up 4 points, generous predictions had a 8-12 point margin. Less than 1.5 is alarming. Yes I know math.

But nevertheless large segments of the Bernie haters are in full meltdown already. At the Clintonite Homo Centrist blog, some are kvelling "I don't know HOW I'd ever vote for him..." Pure ecstasy.

yea its awesome

anyone know what bidens xG was

wow maybe the Blue No Matter Who folks weren’t as Blue as we’d been led to believe

Seems like Bernie has a solid lock on 25% of Democratic voters but hasn't managed to expand on that because of the crowded field. I think he stands to pick up some Yang supporters, though that's probably not enough to make much of a difference. The bigger question is to what extent he is able to peel off Biden and Warren supporters who have come to believe that their candidate is non-viable.

Depends what proportion of Biden's support is 'whoever looks like winning' and what proportion of Warren's support is vaguely 'progressive'. Pretty open to interpretation!

xpost we'll see. it's still very early, and a lot depends on how long pete/klob/biden/bloomberg keep splitting votes, and how consistently those splits break down from primary to primary.

I keep going back to the latest Quinnipiac poll.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EQi5wnnXUAIVEt5?format=jpg&name=medium

2nd choice for Biden supporters: Bloomberg 21, Sanders 19, Buttigieg 17, Warren 13, Klobuchar 10
2nd choice for Warren supporters: Sanders 33, Buttigieg 25, Biden 8, Klobuchar 7

If both Biden and Warren dropped out tomorrow, it seems like Sanders would be in the best position to benefit?

But I don't think either of them is going to drop out tomorrow. What's unpredictable is whether voters stick with them or begin to look elsewhere.

Two good articles today on media bias against Bernie:

Alex Shepard: https://newrepublic.com/article/156545/bernie-sanders-msnbc-problem

Margaret Sullivan: https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/the-media-keep-falling-in-love--with-anybody-but-bernie-sanders/2020/02/12/0f55cc12-4d9c-11ea-bf44-f5043eb3918a_story.html

Pretty open to interpretation!

That's why some polls inquire about voters' second choice. But even that is subject to revisions as campaigns progress and voters shift themselves about. It's not worth trying to interpret this stuff in advance. It does make sense to contribute time and/or money to one's first choice now, because campaigns are fluid and they run on a mixture of money and volunteers, so that waiting to participate can only reduce the odds that your first choice will prevail.

If Dems go on to nominate Sanders, the Russians will have to reconsider who to work for to best screw up the US. Sanders is just as polarizing as Trump AND he’ll ruin our economy and doesn’t care about our military. If I’m Russian, I go with Sanders this time around.

— Lloyd Blankfein (@lloydblankfein) February 12, 2020

this should be a Bernie flyer