xxxp I think that indicates that the right have the party have very little to do other than to chat shit, tbh.
― Andrew Farrell, Thursday, 27 February 2020 10:18 (four years ago) link
*of the party
― Andrew Farrell, Thursday, 27 February 2020 10:19 (four years ago) link
well they are just chatting shit, but nobody is laughing at them now.
― calzino, Thursday, 27 February 2020 10:22 (four years ago) link
i have to assume that even his terrible advisers aren't stupid enough to revisit the EU in the next 5 years.
I'm not 100% sure what you mean here, but I'm pretty sure the EU will be a rock in Labour's shoe whatever happens (and whatever the party's position on it is).
― Andrew Farrell, Thursday, 27 February 2020 11:30 (four years ago) link
Starmer had said the Brexit policy was fine (it may have been right but it's not something you say given the way that turned out) so I expect more mistakes to be made.
― xyzzzz__, Thursday, 27 February 2020 11:35 (four years ago) link
Because as a matter of policy Labour's best move for the next five years is not to mention the EU except in the context of our post-Brexit relationship Andrew. That may not be the right action but it's the only sane one at the moment.
― Dunty Reggae party 🎉 (Noodle Vague), Thursday, 27 February 2020 11:40 (four years ago) link
He's probably going to be fucked in the north/midlands even if he doesn't mention the EU, if he does he might as well just stand down because the job will be fucked. I've heard quite a few gammony Labour voters saying they didn't vote in the last election because of his Brexit policy and wont vote for him as leader. Even if the economy is knackered I don't think this brexit divide is just going to disappear in one electoral cycle, studies show the UK electorate aren't the most rational bunch!
― calzino, Thursday, 27 February 2020 11:52 (four years ago) link
Starmer's presumably smart enough to realise that undiluted Milibandism won't work either with the party base or the electorate. I'm pretty sure Miliband also understands this now.
'Milibandism' was never really a thing, was it? I like Ed M quite a lot but he always gave the impression of being blown around by forces further to the right than him - both within the party and outside it. The manner of his victory - both the narrow margin over his brother and the reliance on union votes - meant he never really had the political capital to stamp his authority or give a clear sense of direction, he was always at the mercy of the press and bad advisors.
Corbyn lacked political capital for different reasons but at least he had a big mandate from the membership. Starmer will be in a different situation yet again because if that poll is accurate he'll be the first leader since Blair (!!!) to have a strong mandate from both MPs and members.
― Matt DC, Thursday, 27 February 2020 11:55 (four years ago) link
Worth pointing out the membership was also heavily in favour of a second referendum, in a democratic party they'd have arrived at that Brexit policy regardless and may indeed have settled on something even more Remainy.
― Matt DC, Thursday, 27 February 2020 11:56 (four years ago) link
yes that's true and i don't think the policy was down to Starmer alone, but ffs learn the lesson, move on, give the demographics a few years to possibly shift, if rejoining is going to seem desirable that's going to have to come from the ground up. i feel like given British (English) exceptionalism, that desire might never come but let's be optimistic.
― Dunty Reggae party 🎉 (Noodle Vague), Thursday, 27 February 2020 11:59 (four years ago) link
I'm talking about the perception of Starmer out there* of him as a Remain poster boy. The pressure from membership was there yes but, he was the one stanning for a policy that was a complete failure.
*in this case a couple of pubs and a park!
― calzino, Thursday, 27 February 2020 11:59 (four years ago) link
If he starts banging on about rejoining the EU immediately then he's a complete idiot, but he's clearly not going to do that.
― Matt DC, Thursday, 27 February 2020 12:05 (four years ago) link
(some xps)
The context of our post-Brexit relationship is going to grow and grow though, particularly if (as threatened today) Boris might take his ball back as early as June. I'm definitely not suggesting that the next Labour leader do anything to try and stop Brexit, but "what are you proposing to do if you get in?" will be a pretty divisive question.
For the record, I don't think "rejoin! rejoin!" is a good answer, because I can't imagine the EU accepting the UK back when the policy of the other party is going to be "leave again as soon as possible". But it not being a good idea won't stop the loud voices pointing out that it's still a very popular option with voters, let alone the membership.
From a very cynical point of view, and on this specific issue, the drubbing at the election will be good because there really is fuck all that any Labour leader can do on this, and the higher the chance of the shitshow being owned by the Tories, the better.
― Andrew Farrell, Thursday, 27 February 2020 12:09 (four years ago) link
Yeah he won't do that except he will be seen as one of the chief architects of the Brexit policy and will be painted as such...just sends a signal that after a period of reflection Lab has returned someone like that, except with a nice suit and haircut xp
― xyzzzz__, Thursday, 27 February 2020 12:13 (four years ago) link
"nice"
― Dunty Reggae party 🎉 (Noodle Vague), Thursday, 27 February 2020 12:20 (four years ago) link
there won't be no grime4starmer campaign that much is sure. When you are a cop (IN A NICE SUIT) who has publicly given your blessing to a foul tory publicity stunt like the night courts during the 2011 riots that is your goose cooked there - a fucking stain on your rep that never washes off. Corbyn was very popular with BAME voters even if labour's law and order stance was a bit rocky under his leadership - he got a lot of younger BAME voters onto the electoral register as well.
― calzino, Thursday, 27 February 2020 12:53 (four years ago) link
the RW narrative on the crash/austerity was v weak so they basically replaced politics with brexit and I think the extreme amt of attention on labour atm is bc it fills the brexit void in the discourse and they haven't worked out what else they can talk about.
reading reams of polling data was part of my post-election coping mechanism and my best guess is that keeping the 2017 policy would have swapped a bunch of seats but wouldn't have made much difference in overall numbers. it might have seen labour return marginally more seats but probably slightly fewer overall votes. my reasoning is that a lot of labour's losses were quite marginal defeats in leave voting seats, with the brexit party-tory pact being effective (and weirdly under-discussed?). overall it looks like labour lost well over a million 2017 voters to lib dems, snp, and greens, which helped flip some leave voting seats, and maybe 700k-1 million pro brexit 2017 labour voters to tories and bxp (with another few hundred k of them sitting out entirely). tories lost over a million remain voters but gained very slightly more leave voters, and helped by the v late surge of bxp voters. 2017 policy would have saved a few seats in the north (for one election at least!) and lost a few in the south, basically.
obv impossible to truly know but despite the dismal result it may well have been the least bad policy, esp given that ime a lot of the lexit types that ppl say don't exist but I somehow keep meeting in the labour party and unions do not actually care that much abt brexit, and that a no-remain policy wld have hurt labour with young & minority voters and party members, which cld have a nasty electoral legacy w/ what is now a huge part of the labour base
― ogmor, Thursday, 27 February 2020 12:58 (four years ago) link
I’m thinking the ‘red wall’ seats fell Conservative because the Brexit Party pulled out of every single race where the Tories won and those voters plus disaffected Labour pro-Brexit voters who had no alternative to Lab other than Tories did the dirty deed.
― santa clause four (suzy), Thursday, 27 February 2020 13:11 (four years ago) link
The people I've talked won't cop for that, they told me didn't bother voting. But you just never know what goes on in that ballot booth despite what people say.
― calzino, Thursday, 27 February 2020 13:17 (four years ago) link
voting booth! lol ballot booth wtf!
― calzino, Thursday, 27 February 2020 13:18 (four years ago) link
seen some estimates of 200k ppl who voted leave and lab 2017 switching to lib dems/green/SNP in 2019, including a significant chunk in the red wall. but yes more didn't vote. only half of voters have voted the same way in the last 4 general elections which is an all time low
― ogmor, Thursday, 27 February 2020 13:19 (four years ago) link
I think it was only around half the seats Labour lost that they would've held, at least for another electoral term, had BXP not run alongside Tories - assuming the bulk of the BXP vote were 'former Labour never - at least still not yet - Tory'
― nashwan, Thursday, 27 February 2020 13:20 (four years ago) link
There’s also the possibility that some of the wc Tory vote was originally Brexit/UKIP.
― santa clause four (suzy), Thursday, 27 February 2020 13:23 (four years ago) link
Stoke on Trent North had a particularly bad turnout drop of around 10% but most other places Labour lost seemed to be down more like 5% or less
― nashwan, Thursday, 27 February 2020 13:24 (four years ago) link
lab the beneficiaries of lots of doomed tactical voting too ofc
― ogmor, Thursday, 27 February 2020 13:27 (four years ago) link
Think it’s probably Labour voters staying home in the end, and actual levels of switching Lab-Con being relatively low, but we’ll have to wait for the BES report to confirm. Having said all that, the people voting Lib Dem in Kensington, Green in Stroud will forever be cunts of the highest order.
― median punt (gyac), Thursday, 27 February 2020 13:29 (four years ago) link
Wait, Labour Leave to the Lib Dems? Jaysis.
― Andrew Farrell, Thursday, 27 February 2020 13:38 (four years ago) link
Somethib something.. the hated grey squirrel coming over here and taking all our jobs...
― calzino, Thursday, 27 February 2020 13:42 (four years ago) link
Prob at least 3x as many labour remain voters to lib dems but yeah. everyone massively underrates how unusually chaotic and turbulent the electorate has been lately, within constituencies, wards and households even more than between regions or groups.
lab leave > con must have been a big thing unless the issue which has split the Tory party and seen off their leaders for 30 years suddenly stopped mattering to tories bc there wldnt be enough voters to make up the shortfall in tory remain voters otherwise
Datapraxis did the best GE report by miles imo, altho the demographic tribal groupings are p questionable it at least beats the idea that there is any sort of explanatory narrative that features less than abt 20 different things going on simultaneously
― ogmor, Thursday, 27 February 2020 13:53 (four years ago) link
Lots of Tory marketing (nearly 4x as well funded as labour sez the electoral commission today) was v much aimed at labour leave voters, Get Brexit Done came up in a focus group meeting in bury iirc and they ran with it
― ogmor, Thursday, 27 February 2020 13:56 (four years ago) link
my reasoning is that a lot of labour's losses were quite marginal defeats in leave voting seats, with the brexit party-tory pact being effective (and weirdly under-discussed?).
This was written up fairly quickly, really the main reason for Labour's loss and under-discussed even by Labour in the post-mortem, which suits a lot of people.
https://theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/13/brexit-party-nigel-farage-boris-johnson-labour-leavers
xxp
― xyzzzz__, Thursday, 27 February 2020 14:00 (four years ago) link
xxp idk, I’m sure if you look at the actual vote counts the Tories weren’t much different from 17 whereas Lab fell off? And 17 was a high water mark for both cos May got ~80% of the UKIP votes. Even the 19 Lab vote was more comparable to their votes in 15 & 10 and it was 17 that was the outlier.
― median punt (gyac), Thursday, 27 February 2020 14:24 (four years ago) link
yeah tories were slightly up overall despite losing their remainers. lab lost voters a bit in all directions
― ogmor, Thursday, 27 February 2020 14:28 (four years ago) link
Just got an actual phone call from KS campaign, told them I was voting for RLB.
― Wuhan!! Got You All in Check (Camaraderie at Arms Length), Thursday, 27 February 2020 14:41 (four years ago) link
At this point they have also sent me 2 text messages and one letter and countless FB ads
― Wuhan!! Got You All in Check (Camaraderie at Arms Length), Thursday, 27 February 2020 14:42 (four years ago) link
give him his due, the lad really wants it
― Dunty Reggae party 🎉 (Noodle Vague), Thursday, 27 February 2020 14:43 (four years ago) link
he's covering every blade of grass is this lad!
― calzino, Thursday, 27 February 2020 15:08 (four years ago) link
Hardest working ventiloquist's dummy in showbiz.
― Load up your rubber wallets (Tom D.), Thursday, 27 February 2020 15:09 (four years ago) link
shane long-bailey runs about a lot and works very hard for the team as well.. but is that enough?
― calzino, Thursday, 27 February 2020 15:11 (four years ago) link
Same people funding Starmer’s leadership bid probably https://t.co/hKUluFESzU— Rosewood Shoehorn (@apiarism) February 27, 2020
the net closes in on Starmer's mystery campaign donors and lol at the LibDems!
― calzino, Thursday, 27 February 2020 19:38 (four years ago) link
Monbiot backing Nandy (?????)
― ogmor, Friday, 28 February 2020 13:37 (four years ago) link
I thought it was widely agreed RLB is the greenest candidate with the bonus of not working with former fucking UKIP honchos?
― calzino, Friday, 28 February 2020 13:40 (four years ago) link
Nandy also got a ringing endorsement from the good ppl of dewsbury last night despite paying lip service to neoliberalism and drip down economics. I think some folk just like her!
― calzino, Friday, 28 February 2020 13:42 (four years ago) link
"she’s got a lovely touch, she gets the collaborative nature of what politics now needs to be”
lol all she ever does is legit concerns, predictions of doom or random jukebox hour.. what the fuck is he smoking?
― calzino, Friday, 28 February 2020 14:47 (four years ago) link
you dirty .. dirty dirty old man.
― calzino, Friday, 28 February 2020 15:02 (four years ago) link
just got an email from doreen lawrence backing starmer
― Generous Grant for Stepladder Creamery (bizarro gazzara), Friday, 28 February 2020 15:48 (four years ago) link
maybe they swapped bending to royals tips at some point?
― calzino, Friday, 28 February 2020 15:51 (four years ago) link
non-politics ppl I know are complaining abt starmer's voice. "I never want to listen to him again". I wonder if his offputting nasal southernness is why ppl up here are backing nandy
― ogmor, Friday, 28 February 2020 16:29 (four years ago) link
Nandy’s support is majority men, complete opposite of the other two.
― median punt (gyac), Friday, 28 February 2020 16:34 (four years ago) link
ppl who like her sincere raised eyebrows expression
― ogmor, Friday, 28 February 2020 17:08 (four years ago) link