outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

I've been meaning to start a rolling 'Real Romania' thread for a while now. I don't think I will in the end, but this – relevant – video goes some way towards compensating for that lack:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AiM5ZUs9s68

The graph isn't making any claims about it killing more people though, just that it has of late an amazing speed of spreading.

Never mind, that video is from a year ago. I'm not sure that makes it better.

Why am I dumb as a post ... ? I mean, generally, sure, but specifically in this case?

Now is the time in our mid-pandemic meltdown when we ad hominem!

https://media.giphy.com/media/3ShY14S0XDhQI/giphy.gif

The graph isn't making any claims about it killing more people though, just that it has of late an amazing speed of spreading.

Hang on, I have to brush some puppy off my shoes (sorry Josh, that was cranky even by my standards)

No prob! I didn't know if I missed something, because I had just time enough in a parking lot to glance at the post, pop over to twitter and skim the responses, many of which implied the original post was irresponsible because it/the graph/video was taken out of context.

this thread is going to give me a heart attack

what is wrong with the graph, again? that it shows coronavirus spreading rapidly? and that's misleading or fearmongering? incomplete or decontextualized information?

the graph shows the number of deaths for each virus, clearly, with the % of deaths per case. the graph is showing, correctly, that coronavirus spreads much more rapidly than the previous epidemics, while, also having a lower mortality rate. it's the perfect complement to all of the hundreds of articles from recent days explaining that the long incubation period (~2 weeks before showing symptoms), combined with the relatively low mortality rate (~2%), means that it's in the sweet spot where it can spread quickly without people knowing, and without mass deaths (a la ebola) to serve as an indicator.

we're about 2 seconds away from someone in itt doing the "but it's no more dangerous than the common cold!" argument

fine i'll make that extremely stupid argument

I know I'd rather catch coronavirus than ebola!

xp the it's no more dangerous than the common cold one?

please don't make that argument

i'm not being serious!!!!!

my position is that the panic scares me more than the virus

otm

It’s gonna be 9/11 all over again but with an emerging infectious disease instead of terrorism and China instead of the middle east

9/11 was not that big of a deal and yet we lost our shit over it

Wow, Japan is literally closing all of its schools until April?!

my position is that the panic scares me more than the virus

― american bradass (BradNelson), Thursday, February 27, 2020 11:07 AM (fourteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

yeah that's where i'm at too

Seriously, I don't see how it's practical to close am entire nation's schools for a month. If all those millions of kids are sent home, then someone has to stay with them, which means people not going to work, etc., which is tantamount to millions and millions of people home sick anyway.

just ftr, i am not afraid of dying of coronavirus or something. and i totally get worrying or just being annoyed about the panic, the indirect effects, and not the thing itself.

i think i am just oversensitive to this kind of thing because of the fine lines between good and bad faith arguments. basically, the great climate change internet comment section wars of 2007-2010 destroyed my ability to differentiate between the two

Karl has largely made my point for me, thanks Karl - my impression was that Josh skimmed the article with the informative graph, wanted to be told that it wasn't as serious, and picked up and rebroadcast 'graph wrong!'

(and my mother is recovering from double pneumonia, has poor function in at least one of her lungs, is on oxygen every night and probably will be permanently - if and when she catches this, that will almost certainly be it for her, so I'm a little twitchy about "oh yeah but it's low mortality")

Seriously, I don't see how it's practical to close am entire nation's schools for a month. If all those millions of kids are sent home, then someone has to stay with them, which means people not going to work, etc., which is tantamount to millions and millions of people home sick anyway.

it's about containment. school is a hotspot for contagious diseases.

sad lol I didn't even skim the article.

I think the Japan thing is huuuuuge. I know why they did it, although I thought reporting was that kids were the *least* affected so far.

i would guess it's not so much to directly protect the kids, it's that they can still carry the virus, and without visible symptoms (during the incubation period)

As an out-of-work teacher, this is the first time I've been glad about the out-of-work part. In the first year or two of teaching, you get everything that's going around, because you don't have immunity yet. No one has immunity to this, and kids apparently get very mild cases, so a lot of teachers and school staff are going to be infected.

Yeah I'm also not super afraid of the virus at this point -- maybe it's naive, but I'm pretty healthy and have a history of weathering illnesses pretty well. I'm slightly more concerned for my parents and inlaws. Agree however about being concerned about the panic, and also concerned that Trump admin will bungle the response. At least I live in NYC/NYState which seem to have slightly more competent govts than the US right now.

Perhaps anyone without kids hasn't considered how massively disruptive it would be to, say, close all of America's schools for a month.

t/s: closing schools to help contain a pandemic vs keeping schools open and hastening a pandemic

Where are those kids going to go, and are they not going to spread the virus there?

See, this is my thing with the "but I must fly" - convenience is maybe not the only consideration?

Along those lines, why close schools, but not, say, banks, or movie theaters, or airports or concert venues or anything else that has high traffic or large collections of people? Maybe they will.

The French government has begun preparations for having all schooling done remotely during an epidemic period.

Just generally? Or with this virus in mind?

for this in particular, yes

a 60 year old middle school teacher from a village north of Paris died of this yesterday, so people are worried that what's happened in Italy is now going to be here.

China, HK and Vietnam have all closed most schools and universities for extended periods, HK and VN likely until at least April.

Japan didn't say anything about universities, right? Just grade schools?

confused why France and Japan haven't adopted Mike Pence's clearly superior 'Indiana model' (??) for combatting this disease

I guess the ‘why school, not banks?’ is partly explained by how unhygienic kids are.

Not sure about Japanese universities.

anyway this is a good thread for getting me to compulsively reapply purell every nine seconds

I wish I was confident that adults were significantly more hygienic than kids.

South Korea paused the restart of university after the holiday break in January, but they're still going.

I've a trip to Japan and South Korea in April, paid by the CNRS (French research center), and I got a note from the CNRS today saying that no trips to South Korea are going to be permitted. So assuming they don't bar travel to Japan, I'll have a few more days in Japan instead.

Japanese universities have not closed yet en masse, though for instance Ochanomizu University in Tokyo has decided to close until April as well.

My aunt and uncle were going to take cruise (!) in China (!!) this May, but ... I suspect this may not be happening.

Speaking of Japan (and continuing something brought up a while back):

A woman working as a tour bus guide in Japan has tested positive for coronavirus for a second time, in what authorities have said is the first such case.

The woman, who is in her 40s and a resident of Osaka in western Japan, tested positive on Wednesday after developing a sore throat and chest pains, the prefectural government said. She first tested positive on 29 January and was discharged from hospital after recovering on 1 February, before testing negative on 6 February.

Where are those kids going to go, and are they not going to spread the virus there?

which would be better for containment: the kids staying at home and only being in close contact with immediate family, or the kids going to school every day and effectively being in close contact with all of the other kids + their immediate families?

we should just infect everybody, it'll strengthen their immune systems!