outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

Karl has largely made my point for me, thanks Karl - my impression was that Josh skimmed the article with the informative graph, wanted to be told that it wasn't as serious, and picked up and rebroadcast 'graph wrong!'

(and my mother is recovering from double pneumonia, has poor function in at least one of her lungs, is on oxygen every night and probably will be permanently - if and when she catches this, that will almost certainly be it for her, so I'm a little twitchy about "oh yeah but it's low mortality")

Seriously, I don't see how it's practical to close am entire nation's schools for a month. If all those millions of kids are sent home, then someone has to stay with them, which means people not going to work, etc., which is tantamount to millions and millions of people home sick anyway.

it's about containment. school is a hotspot for contagious diseases.

sad lol I didn't even skim the article.

I think the Japan thing is huuuuuge. I know why they did it, although I thought reporting was that kids were the *least* affected so far.

i would guess it's not so much to directly protect the kids, it's that they can still carry the virus, and without visible symptoms (during the incubation period)

As an out-of-work teacher, this is the first time I've been glad about the out-of-work part. In the first year or two of teaching, you get everything that's going around, because you don't have immunity yet. No one has immunity to this, and kids apparently get very mild cases, so a lot of teachers and school staff are going to be infected.

Yeah I'm also not super afraid of the virus at this point -- maybe it's naive, but I'm pretty healthy and have a history of weathering illnesses pretty well. I'm slightly more concerned for my parents and inlaws. Agree however about being concerned about the panic, and also concerned that Trump admin will bungle the response. At least I live in NYC/NYState which seem to have slightly more competent govts than the US right now.

Perhaps anyone without kids hasn't considered how massively disruptive it would be to, say, close all of America's schools for a month.

t/s: closing schools to help contain a pandemic vs keeping schools open and hastening a pandemic

Where are those kids going to go, and are they not going to spread the virus there?

See, this is my thing with the "but I must fly" - convenience is maybe not the only consideration?

Along those lines, why close schools, but not, say, banks, or movie theaters, or airports or concert venues or anything else that has high traffic or large collections of people? Maybe they will.

The French government has begun preparations for having all schooling done remotely during an epidemic period.

Just generally? Or with this virus in mind?

for this in particular, yes

a 60 year old middle school teacher from a village north of Paris died of this yesterday, so people are worried that what's happened in Italy is now going to be here.

China, HK and Vietnam have all closed most schools and universities for extended periods, HK and VN likely until at least April.

Japan didn't say anything about universities, right? Just grade schools?

confused why France and Japan haven't adopted Mike Pence's clearly superior 'Indiana model' (??) for combatting this disease

I guess the ‘why school, not banks?’ is partly explained by how unhygienic kids are.

Not sure about Japanese universities.

anyway this is a good thread for getting me to compulsively reapply purell every nine seconds

I wish I was confident that adults were significantly more hygienic than kids.

South Korea paused the restart of university after the holiday break in January, but they're still going.

I've a trip to Japan and South Korea in April, paid by the CNRS (French research center), and I got a note from the CNRS today saying that no trips to South Korea are going to be permitted. So assuming they don't bar travel to Japan, I'll have a few more days in Japan instead.

Japanese universities have not closed yet en masse, though for instance Ochanomizu University in Tokyo has decided to close until April as well.

My aunt and uncle were going to take cruise (!) in China (!!) this May, but ... I suspect this may not be happening.

Speaking of Japan (and continuing something brought up a while back):

A woman working as a tour bus guide in Japan has tested positive for coronavirus for a second time, in what authorities have said is the first such case.

The woman, who is in her 40s and a resident of Osaka in western Japan, tested positive on Wednesday after developing a sore throat and chest pains, the prefectural government said. She first tested positive on 29 January and was discharged from hospital after recovering on 1 February, before testing negative on 6 February.

Where are those kids going to go, and are they not going to spread the virus there?

which would be better for containment: the kids staying at home and only being in close contact with immediate family, or the kids going to school every day and effectively being in close contact with all of the other kids + their immediate families?

we should just infect everybody, it'll strengthen their immune systems!

I gather what Josh is asking is, how will parents be able to stay home with their kids?

staying at home

The story didn't say anything about quarantine.

which is an understandable problem, since there are a lot of employers who reply to that with "that sounds like a 'you' problem" or might threaten to fire them if they take off of too much work, esp in states like mine which are 'right to work'.

given how many people live paycheck to paycheck or worse, it's a valid concern. but Karl's point is also otm, kids at school are a much more potent vector to spread the disease.

xpost

hah, well, that's what's expected! not strictly, but it's not like the parks are suddenly going to be full of school-aged kids. xp

I wish I was confident that adults were significantly more hygienic than kids.

Kids will put anything in their mouths.
Adults will put anyone...

xpost Yeah, those people at home are people not at work, or going out as much, etc., for weeks. I mean, we live in a culture where it's been calculated how much productivity is lost when people skip work to see a new Star Wars movie.

Yeah, if this was a serious threat, it'd be affecting the Dow!

Good thing the economy is stronger than ever, etc.

maybe we can convince the President and his Cabinet to get the virus to own the libs

which would be better for containment: the kids staying at home and only being in close contact with immediate family, or the kids going to school every day and effectively being in close contact with all of the other kids + their immediate families?

Exactly. Leaving aside the risk to teachers, the risk is that you'll start with a few families having the virus, the kids will take it to school where it will circulate, and then a lot of families will have the virus. Kids have to get the virus to spread it; if they're not at school, the risk that they'll get it in the first place is lower.

I take Josh's point, though; there are a lot of jobs that can be done from home if employers cooperate, but a lot more jobs that can't. And remember that study about how many people don't have an extra $400 to cover emergencies? You can't, practically speaking, tell everyone to just stay home and not earn money.

Pay people to stay home tbh

As someone hinted at upthread, there are also quite a few jobs where the technology easily exists for the work to be done remotely, but the managers, often out of some misguided belief in "team unity" or "productivity", flat out refuse to allow it.

the pence task force, i mean, the task force led by pence but actually chaired by azar, who is leading it in conjunction with pence, is what i heard, or something - is off to a good coordinated start

Who’s in charge of the Trump administration’s coronavirus response? During the White House press briefing Wednesday night, it was difficult to tell.

President Donald Trump had announced minutes into the press briefing that Vice President Mike Pence would lead the administration’s response to the outbreak. “I’m going to be announcing exactly right now” that Pence would lead the administration on the matter, Trump said. “Mike will report back to me.”

That “blindsided” the man who had been leading the government’s response, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar, The Washington Post reported Wednesday citing five unnamed people familiar with the situation. Politico reported, citing four unnamed people familiar with the matter, that Pence’s appointment was a “shock” to Azar and his team.

“That doesn’t speak well to a joined-up process,” Joshua Busby, an associate professor of public affairs at the University of Texas at Austin, told TPM.

Azar chairs the White House task force on coronavirus, which was announced in late January. But Pence is expected to lead the task force’s meeting Thursday, the Post and Politico reported. At a congressional hearing Thursday morning, Azar described himself as “chairman of the President’s coronavirus task force and working in conjunction with the administration’s lead for the virus, Vice President Pence.”

Wednesday night, after the President had stopped taking questions on his administration’s approach to the outbreak — clashing with public health officials but acknowledging the White House would spend more than initially planned to fight the virus — the health secretary appeared to be digesting the news in real time.

“Mr. President, do you still have confidence in Sec. Azar, given the Pence move?” a reporter asked the President. Azar’s eyebrows arched dramatically.

“I have great confidence,” Trump said before Azar interjected.

“If I could just clarify, I think you’re not getting the point here of this. I’m still chairman of the task force,” he said. Pence’s involvement, Azar said, “gives me the biggest stick one could have in the government on this whole-of-government approach.”

“When the President — when this was mentioned to me, I was delighted that I get to have the vice president helping in this way,” Azar said, as Trump slipped out the door to the briefing room.

lol

don't worry, azar - you'll suddenly be in charge again when it comes time to fire someone over this

pence is now taking time out of his busy coordination schedule to address cpac

have we decided whether or not this is being overblown by a callous and cynical media or is in fact a good deal more serious than is being suppressed or handwaved away by the new world order yet

or is it just a reason to be snappy at each other either way like

Seems likeliest to me that school closures will happen, so as to slow down the spread. It will spread regardless, but a slower spread would reduce the strain on the medical system in treating those with the most severe symptoms, who may only be a limited subset of those who are infected, but who will require urgent care.

What health authorities are hoping to accomplish is to lower the height of the local spike in symptomatic (sick) people and spread it out over a longer time so it will not overstrain facilities and lessen the immediate disruption to society. They have no hope of preventing everyone from getting exposed to it. They just want to slow it down and spread it out as the best-case scenario.

Ugh

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/484942-japan-confirms-first-case-of-person-reinfected

This poor fellow tells journalists he doesn't have coronavirus, and then... pic.twitter.com/pxn3EGlZbc

— Peter Liakhov (@peterliakhov) February 27, 2020

(Can't vouch for accuracy, but it's disturbingly amusing.)

http://www.welovetheiraqiinformationminister.com/images/07-minister.jpg

Government health officials and scientists will have to clear statements about the coronavirus outbreak with the office of Vice President Mike Pence, in an effort to tighten the White House’s control of messaging about the virushttps://t.co/gD393dnJ50

— The New York Times (@nytimes) February 27, 2020

https://www.cygnus-x1.net/links/rush/images/books/prog-02.2016/prog-02.2016-2-s.jpg