outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

just got back from Illinois
lock the front door, oh boy!
got to sit down, take a self-quarantine

Dinosaur coronas,
infectious like Buck Owens.

Comic con finally postponed till summer.

More like comic-off, right?

Oh whoops missed the earlier post about it. Sorry!

Bad time to be a Tool fan:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/06/man-with-coronavirus-went-to-packed-rock-concert-at-new-zealand-arena

not to be overly pessimistic, but i kind of imagine every large sports or music event on every continent is probably at risk of this right now? seems like you could imagine that headline reappearing again and again.

Yes. I mean the objective here public-health-wise is to slow the spread of disease as much as possible by limiting the raw volume of personal contact happening in areas with incipient outbreaks, but it doesn’t mean that everyone going to a concert with a sick person will get the 28 Days Later disease

Obviously if she were infected in Texas (that would be a great name for an album)

All the infectious live in Texas
And Texas is the place I'd dearly love to be
But all the infectious live in Texas
And that's why I hang my hat in Tennessee

Had a little sore throat, a little congestion this morning. Quarantining myself by virtue of not having a day job but I do wonder if it's irresponsible to go to the gym. My by thinks I'm being ridiculous but I can't figure out how much to worry/"worry" about getting this since neither of us nor my roommate have health insurance.

https://www.wcpo.com/news/state/state-indiana/indiana-confirms-first-case-of-covid-19

Since (again) the vast majority of people are not seriously at risk (that is, at risk of death, fwiw), I still see no reason to self-quarantine unless you know you've been exposed or truly feel like shit and/are coughing all over the place. On one hand, I've seen people make the argument that the nominally healthy should try to stay that way to help the people who might not be able to help themselves, if this becomes downright disastrous (which nothing like this in recent memory has really been; you never know but I doubt we'll see any great novels about the fabled, feared Covid Years, fingers crossed). On the other hand, getting out and about if you are nominally healthy is a bit like getting your vaccine. Exposure means *immunity*, which means you won't be passing it on to others in the future. This strain, at least.

The Times of Israel: Israel weighs barring Americans, quarantine for Israelis coming back from US

Author Max Brooks:

If the Israelis are on to anything, the movie shows it when they think that any danger, no matter how small, is quite possibly cataclysmic and demands our sharpest attention and dispassionate calculation. To put it bluntly, the only Jewish virtue trumpeted in this film is neuroticism.

Another disappointment. Looks like I wont be going to SXSW either. Sad. Deeply frustrated. But it’s the responsible thing to do. Social distancing is an important way to slow COVID-19 and if you’ve got an elderly or immunocompromised loved one, you know what I mean.

— Max Brooks (@maxbrooksauthor) March 3, 2020

wth

live your life until you get a diagnosis ffs

Or suspect you've been exposed.

Here in Seattle, public health is telling anyone who's sick to please please stay home just in case. I don't know where you are, but I think there's a good chance that what's happening in Seattle is happening elsewhere as well.

Doesn't apply here. There's evidence the non-symptomatic infected can be contagious, so you're not living your life for yourself, but also for everyone you might have contact with over the next couple weeks.

So should everyone just stay home then, indefinitely?

I think if you're in a high risk group, or have people in your immediate life in a high risk group, you should be more cautious than most people. Who all may have it already!

Our neighbors up here in the country are in their mid-70s and she's got heart health issues and I just hugged her a few days ago. Back in Brooklyn, most people I'm around are young(er) and mostly healthy but a lot of us smoke and many of us are uninsured. I was going to visit my parents soon, but they're ALSO in their 70's and my dad has a history of heart trouble. So yeah if you have at-risk people in your life, it could be a lot worse than me personally just having a bad cold for a week.

wth

live your life until you get a diagnosis ffs

― Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Friday, March 6, 2020 4:22 PM (five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

protect mel brooks at all costs imo

The question I haven't really seen answered - and maybe there is no answer yet, which increases anxiety - is how this is significantly different from H1N1, or SARS, or the flu or any similar outbreak from the past couple of decades. I mean, yeah, the virus itself is different, but the world survived those without melting down. What is different this time?

Nope. Wash hands as if you found religion, find alternatives to handshakes, disinfect shared surfaces like doorknobs, avoid mass events, and advocate for/get tested as soon as you suspect contact. Take extra precautions if you regularly interact with the elderly.

South Korea shows the path: drive-thru free testing for everyone. It tells infected when they should self-quarantine, and relieves others from anxiety and permits them to function in the economy. Ideally, every healthcare worker interacting with patients would be tested weekly.

Asymptomatic transition is the key deifference. With sars and h1n1 you got a fever before you could transmit the disease. With this one you can walk around for two weeks or never even know you have it and still be spreading it around.

At this point, if there's one case in your region, there's many.

Don't visit Seattle if there's no cases in your region.

If there's cases in your region, working from home and avoiding large gatherings of people indefinitely will help slow the spread of disease, which improves the ability of the health system to respond to serious cases.

Basically, large events here are being canceled for good reason, it's not to keep us from bleeding from the eyes because we were all at a concert, it's to protect our community as a whole and the most vulnerable and susceptible people in it.

I live in a city with millions of people in it. There are like 10 known cases here. I’m not self-quarantining if I get a cough!

basically, stay home because of this graph:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESas8tHVAAAhr_I?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

There are like 10 known cases here. I’m not self-quarantining if I get a cough!

― Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Friday, March 6, 2020 1:33 PM (sixteen seconds ago)

stay home if you get a cough anyway ffs

srsly

Yeah, I don't go to the gym if I'm sick, even if it's just a cold, because no one wants me there and I don't want to get anyone sick.

xp Josh:

SARS had a basic reproduction number in the range of 2-4. H1N1, and the seasonal flu have basic reproduction numbers (R0) around 1.5. Estimates for Covid19 hover around 2.3. Some estimates are higher, up to 4.7-6.6 in populations taking no precautions. Covid19 is probably more infectious than SARS, H1N1, or seasonal flu, but not as bad as the 1918 influenza.

SARS had a case fatality rate around 10%, but many mild or nonsymptomatic cases were missed, so the real CFR could be much lower. H1N1 has a CFR around 0.1-0.9%. Seasonal flu is about 0.1%. The best lower bound I've seen for Covid19 is the 0.67% seen in South Korea, which has by far the best medical surveillance of any nation with a large outbreak. Actual CFR seen in Korea will be higher, as there are more critical and serious cases that haven't resolved (to death or recovery), and many cases that may enter those categories. All of these are lower than the 1918 influenza.

In all this, its worth considering that Covid19 has outpaced the related SARS in both cases and deaths, despite far more effective containment efforts. My belief is that when this epidemic is over and statistics are better, Covid19 will be viewed as significantly more infectious than SARS (R0 around 2.5) but with a similar real case fatality rate (CFR around 0.7-1%, much higher in nations with limited or overwhelmed healthcare resources).

OK well I do stay home if I get a cough actually because I take any excuse to work from home that I can because working from home rules - but like - people can cough near me, I don't give a shit!

xp to my last post: that should read "more infectious than SARS (with Covid19's R0 being around 2.5, perhaps higher)"

On that graphic

1. A very short thread on the power of data graphics and scientific communication.

Roughly a week ago, some very smart person* sat down, drew this graph, and saved lives.

(*It's 2 AM. Without an economist subscription, I can't quickly discover whom. Maybe someone can help.) pic.twitter.com/eU71Eu60eS

— Carl T. Bergstrom (@CT_Bergstrom) March 6, 2020

xpost Interesting. Am I right then that even the mortality rate is pretty nebulous? Like SARS et al., obviously they are not testing and can't test everyone, so there is no way to know how many people have got it and were/are asymptomatic, or had very mild symptoms. They are only testing people suspected to be infected (another great album title!) or who were in contact with infected. So maybe the mortality rate is whatever it is *among those people* but it's unclear (right?) what it is or could be in the general population. My point being, whether this is better or worse than SARS, H1N1 et al. is moot, because SARS, H1N1 et al. were not good! And yet, they didn't cripple the world. As far as I remember.

And I still think the 1918 flu comparison is mostly academic, because of both 100 years of medical progress and the advent of antibiotics (which, yeah, won't do anything for this virus, but which are massively helpful in staving off ancillary, opportunistic illness which often does the actual killing).

austin declares emergency, sxsw cancelled

There it is!

13 cases in Portugal now, and flights being cancelled out of Lisbon (preumably due to reduced demand).

Are we being crippled? We’re just staying home.

https://img.taste.com.au/kwdDtrvw/w640-h640-cfill/taste/2020/03/fireshot-capture-1352-_il-grande-sconfitto-da-questo-virus-sono-le-penne-lisce_-lironia-_-www-huffingtonpost-it-159266-1.png
https://img.taste.com.au/CJTdso4y/w720-h480-cfill-q80/taste/2020/03/no-buying-pasta-159267-1.jpg

my Italian coworker told me about these pictures that are going around of the shelves in Italian supermarkets being completely bare except for many packs of penne lisce, the most bad and hated pasta lol

Berkeley has at least once potential case, someone who has self-quarantined (my wife saw her outside of whole foods last week in her mask, she realized later), and she lays out what it was like in South Korea vs what it's like in the US, and it's depressing:

https://www.berkeleyside.com/2020/03/05/opinion-after-seeing-what-south-korea-is-doing-to-stop-the-spread-of-covid-19-the-u-s-seems-unprepared-can-it-step-up

"The question I haven't really seen answered - and maybe there is no answer yet, which increases anxiety - is how this is significantly different from H1N1, or SARS, or the flu or any similar outbreak from the past couple of decades. I mean, yeah, the virus itself is different, but the world survived those without melting down. What is different this time?"

I went down some fucking FB tin hat rabbit hole that posited that this virus doesn't go away, like HIV; if you have it, you have it forever; and that it was likely an engineered virus. My gut reaction is "that's stupid" but you know, could be true.

That graphic was reproduced in reality in 1918, after Philadelphia held a Liberty Loan Drive parade on September 28.

https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/104/18/7582/F1.large.jpg

head of Philadelphia’s Naval Hospital told the Public Ledger in the days before the parade: “There is no cause for further alarm. We believe we have it well in hand.”

No that’s stupid

xp

Exposure means *immunity*

I'm hoping that no-one in this thread is taking advice from Josh (or Tracer, ffs Tracer!) but this is more than usually bad advice - there are multiple reports of people recovering and being re-infected.

I’m not handing out advice Andrew. I’m saying that I’m not worried if someone I work with or sit next to on the Tube has the sniffles.

“We should all run out and catch this ASAP cause then we’ll have immunity and stop it spreading” is galaxy brain stuff

xp runny nose isn't a symptom afaik, so "the sniffles" is nbd. the problem, as has been noted repeatedly itt, is that the person sitting next to you who seems fine could have it, and easily transmit it

i'm not worried for myself if i run across anyone who's sick, but more worried for others. my mom is coming to visit L.A. tomorrow for a couple weeks, just in time to be in possibly the next city on the west coast to get a marked increase in cases. while she's in "ok" health, she's also 72, and i'm likely going to try to do things with her that don't involve close quarters with others. just in case.

perhaps the people of LA could substitute the usual public transpo commute with single driver highway auto traffic to help prevent further spread