outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

xpost That's not really what I said or meant re: going out to become immune. What I've said repeatedly is that there are high risk people and low risk people, and most people by far are low risk and therefore outright quarantine is an extreme position to take. You should go about your business unless you really feel like you can't or shouldn't. Obviously that is up to you, but unless you ("you") are advocating/advising/suggesting that literally everybody shuts themselves in for two weeks, then there's at least some chance you're going to be exposed. And if you are exposed, most likely you will then become immune. Speaking of spreading possible bullshit:

there are multiple reports of people recovering and being re-infected.

Here's an article I just found about why you may be seeing those scattered reports: https://fortune.com/2020/03/06/coronavirus-recover-test-positive-twice/

Being reinfected with COVID-19 is possible, said Sharon Lewin, director of the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity in Melbourne, but such an instance would be "surprising." It's possible that patients are not actually being reinfected, but that other factors—misdiagnosis, human error, or faulty tests—are giving that appearance.

Testing done with animal models for SARS, a similar coronavirus, indicates that patients who recover from the disease will have immunity from it. "From what we know of other coronaviruses, you recover, you make an antibody response, and you clear the virus, and then if you rechallenge the animal with the same virus they're protected," Lewin said.

Lewin put stocks in explanations other than reinfection, but she emphasized that the virus still has too many unknowns and there are too few reported twice-positive cases to conduct a study or draw a definitive conclusion.

Regardless, for those locking themselves away, which is your prerogative, that's a surefire way to limit your exposure, to this and all sorts of other stuff, but it will still likely be out there should you ever decide to emerge.

I’m not trying to limit my exposure for myself I’m trying to limit it for public health while my city is on the upward trajectory of an epidemic outbreak. And that means I’m working from home for at least three weeks and so are tens of thousands of other people.

And you should, or it's not a bad idea, because as you said, your city is on the upward trajectory of an epidemic outbreak.

And I would do the same here if and when it happens here.

...but other cities are also likely on the same trajectory. remember that thing where the US is completely failing to provide testing kits?

xp

it's amazing that you can know so much about this whole coronavirus thing and not think that it's already here, in chicago

basically this, 100x over and over again, for a total of 100,000 times

I’m not trying to limit my exposure for myself I’m trying to limit it for public health while my city is on the upward trajectory of an epidemic outbreak. And that means I’m working from home for at least three weeks and so are tens of thousands of other people.

― college bong rip guy (silby),

There have been five cases (so far) in the state of IL.

I mean, I'm just reading up on this the same way other people are, in real time.

nice. how many tests have there been in IL?

i mean, you got tested, right?

i definitely got tested.

everyone you know got tested, right?

xps ffs dude 5 KNOWN cases

and after you get sick, how long does it take before the symptoms show up?

and how long has it really been spreading, anyway, in Illinois? well, to know that we just have to refer back to the test results. you know, the ones we all took a week ago or so

Again, and again: does that mean literally everybody should isolate because literally everybody could have it?

I mean, that's a logical position to take, isn't it?

the point is - let's be cautious because no one knows what's going on because there aren't enough tests here, and i don't really care to accidentally spread it around (as an asymptomatic carrier) more than i need to, especially as i know people old, middle-aged, and young who have very delicate immune systems, friends and family

no, that's not a logical position.

OK. What does "need to" mean? Are you staying home? If not, why not?

a logical position is to take precautions and not be massive eyerolling when people are taking measures to limit their exposure in large public gatherings.

I'm not eye-rolling. I'm not saying people should limit their exposure. People should be cautious. But if you leave the house, you run the risk of catching it. And if you catch it, you run the risk of passing it on. You don't need to be in a large public gathering for that to happen.

i take a bus to a train to work, then a train and bus back to work. i'm going to an event tomorrow where there will be dozens of people packed into a tight space

What precautions can you take besides washing your hands (a given), avoiding sick people (a given), and not leaving the house?

Follow the WHO guidelines for one. There's a start.

fwiw I don’t think anyone without symptoms should sequester themselves unless advised to, I was just loling at the logic of contracting the disease—>immunity—>not passing it to others—>profit because it leaves out the rather important stage of... being contagious and passing it to others

I am still leaving the house

also the misleading comparisons to H1N1 and SARS

(and last night, HIV (!?!)

(the HIV comparison was from news.au or some shit, not josh)

What I do recommend you all do is get your orders in now for better desk chairs for working from home if you don’t have anything good. I imagine Knoll, Steelcase, and Herman Miller will get somewhat backlogged

xpost But you don't know if and when you ever even have it! Without a test, at least. But there's no way they are going to test everyone, and you can still get it after yoou get tested. So if you leave the house, you may be passing it on. If you have it and have no reason to believe you have it, you may be passing it on. But of course if you think you have it, or think you've been exposed, stay home!

I'm staying home because I'm in Seattle, and the public health authorities here are desperately trying to slow down the spread of an outbreak that is threatening to overwhelm the hospitals, and social distancing is the least I can do to help. Plus it sounds like this virus is pretty horrible and I'm not guaranteed a mild case, so for my own sake as well as that of others, I'd rather not get it. Since I don't have a job right now, I can realistically stay home, which makes it safer for the people who can't. I'm still leaving the house, but mainly to do outdoor things, not to take buses or go to bars or whatever.

I suspect people in many other cities are going to wish they had done more social distancing earlier, once those cities start testing properly.

fwiw I don’t think anyone without symptoms should sequester themselves unless advised to, I was just loling at the logic of contracting the disease—>immunity—>not passing it to others—>profit because it leaves out the rather important stage of... being contagious and passing it to others

Otm. Everyone i know who is calling this overblown keeps justifying it by saying "so what, I'll get sick, I'll get better!"

Yay!!

I have a feeling my attitude may have something to do with living in a country with an actual functioning health care system

“ the problem, as has been noted repeatedly itt, is that the person sitting next to you who seems fine could have it, and easily transmit it”

Right, so I guess what I’m saying is, how could anyone ever know how much they’re at risk? Unless there’s some actual data, like, someone you work with has it? If somebody I worked with had it then I’d hunker down for sure. But until that, or something like that happens, I am gonna live my life. I think??

Whoops the “ yay” was an xpost soz

xp KM:

That comparison was by a Chinese physician dealing with critical cases, who has to deal with patients with depleted CD4+ T cell counts (also a key element of AIDS pathology). Covid19 serious cases are immunocompromised, at least for a while...

You should stay home and not go to large gatherings probably slightly before there is evidence of community transmission in your city, imo. But certainly after.

Sanpaku shut the fuck up about that asinine and misleading comparison

Nobody's saying if you leave the house you're a war criminal.

Hell nobody is saying if you get the disease that you're a monster cos it'll probably happen.

Just like follow sanitation protocols, WHO guidelines, stop rimming for a bit etc

this is not a binary choice between total sequestration or going into crowds and kissing everyone though. everyone can make the choice to do normal stuff but not get on a bus or go to the movies, which can reduce risk by a lot.

Well, yeah. Btw, how large is a large gathering?

It’s like comparing falling off a ladder to osteoporosis because they can both break your bones or something.

10 or more people according to local guidelines

How in the world did they pick that number?

The movies sent me an email reading “please still come to the movies!” and idk man

fire marshall

marshal

If you give it to 10 people, and they give it to 10 people, and so on ... I'm bad at math, but I've seen "The Thing" a bunch, and that computer model was dire.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3qSbYEbtfoY

yeah, and if you give it to 11 people it gets bigger much much faster!