outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

My tub is right by the toilet as well and was thinking, not so seriously but actually it would mean there were options if there was no paper. That would be TMI but it's only hypothetical.

bideting is totally fine.

i left a full kirkland package (30 rolls) at my apt when I moved and my friends moved in (2M). I came back to visit like 4 months later and went looking for toilet paper in the closet and noticed new charmin instead. I asked oh, did you not like that toilet paper brand or something." THEY HAD USED IT ALL ALREADY. I think some people just very much like to make an oven mitt whenever they wipe their butt.

Many of the squat toilets in much of Asia have spray hoses nearby. It all depends on one's standard of cleanliness.

bidet is better

i feel like squat toilets were really beneficial in having older asians maintain a lot more mobility than western counterparts. I am trying to look this up but it looks like no one has really been able to research it with a control group--- why certain ethnicities can hold deep squats longer/more easily.

it was only a matter of time before someone involved waffle stomping doctrine itt

xp crut:

I find that offensive. Rick Santelli here is perpetuating the lie that "it's just another flu". I've been pushing the opposite line here and elsewhere since epidemiology stats came out in early Feb. Given containment is no longer possible, if mitigation measures are successful, we can get US CFR under 0.6% (for 30% attack rate, ~ 600k dead), much lower if some effective antivirals prove effective). If everyone in the US got it now, all who require critical care, and most who require serious care, would die. 3% of the population (10 M dead). Santelli's call is one of the most irresponsible things I've seen from any broadcast journalist, ever. Santelli should lose his job over this.

There's been a run on toilet paper at a lot of Costco locations, apparently. But Costco also carries bidet attachments you can buy for a conventional toilet. Then again, if you are so paranoid you're also stocking up on bottled water, clearly you have no faith in our plumbing system, anyway, so bidet attachments are out. But what good is all that toilet paper if you don't think we're going to have running water?

I assume the people stocking up on bottled water don't drink tap water in the first place.

My figures above aren't that outlandish.

James Lawler, MD, MPH, U Nebraska
https://i.insider.com/5e62a449fee23d58c83a9e62?width=800&format=jpeg

It's not the flu.

why certain ethnicities can hold deep squats longer/more easily.

lol it has nothing to do with ethnicity, and it's not just for using the toilet in Asia, Russia, all over the world.

xpost It's definitely not the flu. But even if the flu is not as deadly, that doesn't discount the thousands of people who die from the flu every year without dominating the headlines the same way. If there is one good thing that comes out of this it will be reaffirming for the millionth time the importance of washing your hands.

ohhhh, what do you think it is. I was trying to figure out if it was some physiology thing. This was the first article that popped up for me. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2018/03/can-you-do-the-asian-squat/555716/

xpost

I was out last night, and I'm stuck in a mall for a while right now, and I have yet to see anybody who seemed even the bit concerned. I don't know if that in and of itself should be concerning.

It's not the flu.

The world's public health officials only freak out about the flu when especially uncommon and virulent strains appear. Their universally high levels of public warnings and unusually drastic interventions should be an excellent clue to people that this is not "just like the flu".

like the article says, it's practice. in some cultures it's just done a lot more.

I'm too lazy to find and embed but GIS yourself some Slav Squat

xxp

xpost Point being, even if it were "just like the flu," the flu is pretty deadly!

oh yeah, that is kind of what I was trying to say, obviously not successfully.

I am always very cautious about drawing conclusions based even on a significant number of reader reports. But having reviewed numerous accounts and combined those with many more from other published accounts, the following is clear: a substantial number of people are seeking medical care for respiratory illnesses (usually not severe) and being presumptively diagnosed with COVID-19 but sent home to take care of themselves and not being recorded in any registry or being contact-traced in any way.

When I say presumptively diagnosed let me be clear what I mean: patient presents with COVID-19 type symptoms, tests negative for the flu and other possible infections and may or may not have travel or contact histories that indicate a risk. Certainly many of these will be other things beside COVID-19. These are by definition not confirmed. But they aren’t just ‘seems sick and isn’t the flu.’ In many of these cases I’m talking to frontline clinicians who say based on experience, differential diagnoses, etc that they think these are likely COVID-19 cases. The issue is there are no tests. Where there are tests they’re being (understandably) rationed for people at high risk, presenting with severe disease, coming up in contact trace investigations etc.

In most cases these people are being told they might have it, how to self-treat at home and to self-isolate. In cases that appear to be mild that is likely the best medical and public health advice. But many of these people are not able to skip work. And again, critically, these presumptive diagnoses are not being reported on any registries.

Again, to be clear, they can’t and shouldn’t be reported as COVID-19 cases since they’re not confirmed. They haven’t been tested. My point is that there’s a significant population of these people and probably a substantial number of them have the disease. At least a non-trivial number do not have the financial ability to miss work, especially without proof that they have the illness.

It’s a really bad situation when the illness seems to be spreading over a broad geographic scope within the country. The continuing lack of testing capacity is a huge, huge problem.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/the-unreported-cases

The most significant difference I see between COVID19 and 'the flu' is that the more common strains of influenza must spread within populations where a good percentage has acquired some immunity to it, either through previous exposure or vaccination, slowing its transmission and limiting the number of people who are violently ill at any one time. The medical system sees influenza every year and it is well-adapted to it through long experience and systems that have been in place for decades.

This stuff has no barriers to transmission. Verified cases have now appeared in 99 countries. It is only getting started. We're going to be coping with this outbreak for many months to come. When the CDC recommended everyone be prepared for "disruptions" they were thinking not just about those who will become ill, but also the widespread repercussions of quarantines, school closures, whole industries (travel, entertainment) being gutted as people stop congregating - the sorts of stuff that's already happening.

This will only intensify in March. I'm hoping it stabilizes somewhat by mid-April and people get a handle on what daily life will look like while the world rides this out.

Apologies if I've missed upthread but has anyone here tested for it or know anyone who's tested for it?

Two of my colleagues went down heavy with something on Friday (different office) and are getting tested next week

xpost And despite all those immunities, and all that medical care, and all of everything, thousands of people die of the flu each year and multiples of that are hospitalized. Always a good reminder to always be vigilant about this stuff, since taking care of yourself annually to prevent the boring old flu is also a big step toward preventing the kind of things we are dealing with now.

To that end I just witnessed a bunch of above average hand washing at the mall. So: baby steps!

you seem really determined to make coronavirus equivalent to the flu

That's not what I'm saying or trying to say at all. I'm just hoping this sparks some self-care consistency on the part of people.

you keep doing that! (sorry, it's just irking me) you keep bringing up the flu, and then diverting to advocacy for hygiene consistency in general. like a cycle of "you know, the flu also kills lots of people and it's not a huge deal every year, just saying. but as long as it leads to more people washing their hands in general, flu or coronavirus, that's a good thing. i'm not saying it's like the flu!"

ok. sorry to irk.

it's ok, i'm sorry to be especially irkable. i think i'm sensitive to deja vu/loop feelings, recently, feeling locked into things. there's definitely a weird psychological effect of outbreak scares like this, quarantines, self-quarantines, unknown rates of infection, lack of testing, uncertainty, dystopia political administration and media, internet. internet. internet...so i'm just being weird. sorry josh.

np!

to balance things out, here's yet another quote from TPM, but this time a view from someone is listening to ITEOTWAWKI(AIFF) on headphones:

I found the updates on the perspectives, risks and the “Eerie Silence” from Covid19 to be very interesting to follow. As a TPM prime subscriber of an American living in Singapore I thought I could share a few perspectives of how we have been dealing being a top 5 Covid19 country for the past month. Singapore is a small city state that on a per capita basis has been at the top of the list of countries dealing with Covid19. In early February, I think the fear around Covid19 was really sinking in. Flights from China were cancelled, grocery stores were emptied by people stocking up for the apocalypse, shopping malls were empty, restaurants were empty and companies were implementing travel bans and splitting up working teams. By the end of February, the Covid19 outbreak continues – we still get new cases every day. But the fear has subsided. I think everyone is still afraid of it, but it is perceived a bit more as a flu plus plus. It has become one of those risks in life we just have to live with. Grocery stores are back to normal, shopping malls are full, restaurants are full again. Another anecdote – on the MRT (our Subway), at the start of Feb, it was typical to see the train cars only half full and more than 50% of those people were wearing face mask. Now, even though we get new cases every day, I look around and in a full train car of 100s of people, I only see 2 or 3 masks.

I think you received some blowback when you published some statistics to put things in perspective. It’s a tricky balance, but I think those perspectives are realistic and will sink in over time. It is not that Covid19 isn’t dangerous – it is a terrible development. But the flu data is pretty astounding if you really wanted to focus on it. Every year 300k to 600k people around the world die of the seasonal flu. The US CDC reports that there are over 20mn cases of flue this season alone (season starts in October) with 19 thousand deaths. I just read on the CDC website that 20 infants died last week from the seasonal flu. If Covid19 killed 20 babies last week we would all be horrified, but there are some risks in life we just get used to. I’m sure if we looked up traffic accidents and other stats that it would be pretty obvious that even if the Covid19 outbreak becomes as large as what happened in China, the average American is still more at risk of dying from driving home from work than from Covid19. If Singapore is anything to go by, the acceptance happened surprisingly quickly and within a month we are getting back to normal even though the outbreak continues.

I'm constantly furious about drivers who kill people with their cars and think cars should be banned, we don't have to get used to preventable death

we can't ban infectious disease but we could devote more resources to preventing its spread

One of the effects of not having any vaccine for COVID19, as there is each year for flu, is that medical professionals universally get vaccinated for flu and thus do not require extraordinary protection measures when treating most flu patients in order no to become infected themselves. Properly treating COVID19 patients includes much more protective gear to isolate the caregivers from the patients. Not only is testing woefully inadequate so far, but the stockpiles of protective gear may not be adequate to the need, exposing doctors, nurses and other workers to infection, so they may become vectors themselves. The emerging shortage of gear is also starting to be felt locally and showing up in news accounts.

This sort of situation is why the CDC is desperate to slow down transmission via social measures, like urging more hand washing and voluntarily limiting one's exposure to other people, especially in crowds. These measures alone will only slow the spread somewhat, but it buys time to start ramping up the response to levels more nearly able to cope once the infection really gets rolling.

I hope other ilxors are talking to their family and friends about taking this seriously. Not in a panic, but with extreme respect for the amount of social wreckage it could do in a very short time frame.

given the absolute horror of the outbreak at the nursing facility in Kirkland, I'd strongly recommend ilxors with loved ones in elder care facilities (1) call up and ask detailed questions about their preparedness to screen visitors or outright stop visits and to prevent transmission from staff to residents (2) purchase a two-way telepresence device of some kind for them (if they're with-it enough to tolerate it) so you can maintain your visit schedule without going in, if you're satisfied with their answers to the first question (3) figure out a way to quarantine them in your own home, if you aren't satisfied.

Italy set to make it illegal to enter or leave Lombardy.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/07/italy-set-to

Yup.

This is a serious development and would, as far as this draft suggests, mean an effective quarantine of over 10 million people https://t.co/OYVxC5FNTo

— Jamie Mackay (@JacMackay) March 7, 2020

can we do this with slack

In locked down Wuhan, teachers use an app called DingTalk to set homework. Kids realised if it got enough one-star reviews it would be removed from App Store. Thousands of reviews flooded in, and DingTalk’s rating fell from 4.9 to 1.4 overnight. Legends. https://t.co/HGjZhVfgUa

— Mike Bird (@Birdyword) March 7, 2020

if sports events start turning into televised empty crowd events, the surreality will jump up a notch

STEELE: ...And in just about every league, they're really following these developments closely. Late last night, the NBA sent a memo to teams to be prepared to play games with just their essential staff, so no fans. It doesn't mean that they'll do it, but just to be ready. What I'm hearing is that the next two weeks are going to be really critical.

SIMON: Will the NCAA consider canceling March Madness or making the kind of accommodation that we mentioned? I mean, no fans means no or limited income, doesn't it?

STEELE: Of course. Yeah, ticket sales are really important. But, of course, the TV deal dwarfs whatever they're going to do on the ticket side.

Finally an explanation for the CDC testing fiasco:

Quillette: Don’t Test, Don’t Tell: The Bureaucratic Bungling of COVID-19 Tests

Now that doesn’t mean that you can’t screw up the coronavirus test if you really set your mind to it. And in fact, that’s exactly what the CDC did in January, when they rejected the World Health Organization’s proposed test panel for SARS-CoV-2 (the official name for this particular novel coronavirus which causes the disease COVID-19) in favor of a gold-plated test panel of the CDC’s own design. After all, why just test for SARS-CoV-2 when you could also test for other SARS and MERS viruses? Unfortunately, with complexity came error, and these initial CDC triple-test kits had a flaw in one of the multiple tests, ruining the entire test. Now the CDC is producing a solo test for the SARS-CoV-2 virus, but this fiasco set us back weeks in test-kit supply.

Don’t link to fucking Quilette you credulous boob

Jesus

Really taking the mask of your wannabe ecofascism lately dude

I don't know a single thing about Quillette. I'd never heard of them prior to 10 minutes ago. I just know that this is a plausible reason for the issues with the testing, and it was posted by Chris Martinson, who I've followed for 13 years. He's also been on top of Covid19 since late January.

As for ecofascism, I've been following collapse related issues for around 22 years or so. Is Jared Diamond an ecofascist? Greta Thunberg?

is there a magazine

collapse monthly

What’s COVID’s VORP?

Idk is a guy who has a website called “peak prosperity” a disaster capitalist hmmmm hmmmmmmmmmmm hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Christ dude you’re the one who weeks ago was nodding approvingly at the Xi regime for having the required authority to lock up a whole province get a fucking grip

Am going to put the phone down and read a book instead of possibly libelling Jared Diamond

In a Daily Beast article, Alex Leo described Quillette as "a site that fancies itself intellectually contrarian but mostly publishes right-wing talking points couched in grievance politics".

Venice has been collapsing for centuries now. Then again, sometimes sinkhole opens in Florida and swallows four houses in as many hours. Collapse is a land of many contrasts.

While Martenson calls himself a scientist in the video’s titles, his claim to the label is, according to him, based on a 1994 PhD from Duke’s Department of Pathology where he specialized in toxicology. While he published scientific research in the ’90s, for at least the last decade Martenson has focused on predicting stagflation and other large shifts in financial markets.

lol

Sanpaku if you had more than a one track mind you might be aware of anything at all on the planet of earth other than your own pitiful survival.