outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

i have a suspicion that trump's manifest incompetence is hiding the fact that U.S. administrative capacity is really bad, and that even a supremely competent exec would have trouble containing or mitigating an outbreak given available institutions and tools

— Max Read (@max_read) March 9, 2020

Vanity Fair says that Trump’s definitely melting down every fucking week, I really wish people would stop believing their anonymously sourced center-cannot-hold bullshit.

Trump is freaking out he's going to have to tap in to the strategic TP reserve.

What are the chances that a severe public outbreak in the US could be used to delay the election?

About as good as Trump getting it and dying.

re: max's tweet, the thing is, when ebola hit during the obama administration that is very much what they found - very bad/non-coordinated federal governance regarding outbreaks. so the administration built a much more capable response and backed it up with funding and staff and governnance.

then trump came in and saw that it was something obama liked, and obliterated it for no reason (https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/31/coronavirus-china-trump-united-states-public-health-emergency-response/).

that said, not saying the obama admin would have been able to "contain" coronavirus. but mitigation-wise, there's a direct line between trump's incompetence and the lives that are stake

What are the chances that a severe public outbreak in the US could be used to delay the election?

― Matt DC, Monday, March 9, 2020 2:27 PM (six minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

discussed on the US politics thread IIRC. would require the cooperation of the states, who would be unlikely to give it.

the only way a germophobe like him could shake hands like that is if he was wearing normal human hand sized gloves over his tiny hands imo

vanity fair voice: it's a dumpster fire and i'm living for it *cough*

xpost FWIW he's also a death cultist, so

Age breakdown of Italian fatalities

463 have died (97 today)

Of these:

1% 29-50yrs
10% 60-69yrs
31% 70-79yrs
44% 80-89yrs
14% over 90yrs

— James Longman (@JamesAALongman) March 9, 2020

I mean, even under ordinary circumstances, he doesn't exactly live like he cares about continuing to live.

xp I was interested to read that Italy’s population is like 25% people over 65? We have less than half that % in Ireland, but the Italian proportion is incredible.

about 15% in US (~ 50M out of ~~327M)

Isn't Italy one of the countries always listed as suffering from a population bust? It was either them or maybe France that actually had a Pr push to get people to have more kids,

BTW, I don't know where this "Trump is a germaphobe" stuff comes from. It seems as much BS as anything he's claimed. No doubt he doesn't even know what it means and just trots it out as an excuse.

"Show us your taxes!"
"Sorry, can't, I'm a germaphobe. Meanwhile, watch me feast on fast food and have unprotected sex with porn stars."

I was interested to read that Italy’s population is like 25% people over 65?

... and falling.

i only know about italy's population problems because of all those "move to this village and buy a house for a euro" things.

Trump's germophobia has been widely chronicled

why is that i, a person who would consider moving to this village and buying a house for a euro, never see these things

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/07/donald-trump-germaphobe-1399258

https://1eurohouses.com/

new villages have campaigns every so often. xpost

xpost Yeah, I know, but he's hardly Howard Hughes.

xps Not France, could be Spain or Italy. France’s population is growing.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/37/Europe_population_over_65.png/800px-Europe_population_over_65.png

I think it was Italy.

https://www.npr.org/2016/09/01/492288842/italian-fertility-campaign-to-boost-national-birth-rate-backfires

Making lakes N/A was useful.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?width=880&height=440&id=SPDYNTFRTINITA

uuuuuuuuuuuuugh, please don't call it the #trumpcrash, uuuuuuuuuuugh

https://i.imgur.com/n02c8ob.png

Doesn't TrumpSlump work better?

drumpf harrumph

it would, that's true. but the point is to tie it trump (even though the crash of global markets is not directly attributable to trump - it's one of the few times we can ever say that). so if that's the point, crash is worse than slump, more permanent sounding, gotta go for that dogmatic slogan

Per that World War Z comment upthread:
BBC: Israel to bring in 14-day quarantine for all arrivals

On the bright side (sort of) the current mortality rate in France appears to be around 0.02%. Quality of healthcare and ease of access are key factors, unsurprisingly.

hmm in france i see 1,209 confirmed cases, 19 deaths, which is about 1.5%

johns hopkins tracker

19/1209 = 0.0157, which i could see someone rounding up to 0.02 and confusing with 0.02%. but the percentage would be 1.57%

pomenitul is cancelled (down)

This is why I never do math. Why is it 1.57% instead of 0.0157%?

Btw it's now 30/1412.

because 100% = 1

50% is easier to parse than "0.5" I guess

lol yes that makes sense.

Cancel away.

Btw it's now 30/1412.

up to 2.12% now

😱

shoot, better adjust my dn now. because gosh darn it, i DO give a toot

i was hoping pom would double down and we'd get one of these https://forum.bodybuilding.com/showthread.php?t=107926751

Wasn't the mortality rate ultimately calculated in South Korea a lot lower than people have been claiming?

Anyway, the obvious conclusion is that quality of healthcare and ease of access are ultimately irrelevant. I stand with President Trump.

Reading about the life or death struggle of Italy's Patient 1, a 38 year old who runs marathons, has freaked me out a bit

link?

it's not very nice to freak out on your own and leave us hanging