outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

xp:
South Korea has the best health surveillance with a large outbreak: by testing, and testing of known contacts, and free drive through testing of any who may be anxious. They hence are capturing pretty much every mild and assymptomatic case and I trust their statistics more than any other nation with a big outbreak. Their case fatality rate is 0.7%, and I've been watching this inch up for weeks as more critical cases resolve (to recovery or death) and more cases enter the critical category. So 0.7% is a bottom bound for case fatality rate in a country with a modern healthcare system that hasn't been overwhelmed, with South Korea's age demographics.

He's out of ICU, basically.

xp

Gaetz has it!

xp:
Should add here, the Shincheonji Church of Jesus at the center of the Korean outbreak has younger demographics than the country as a whole, so this may lower case fatality rate further than might be expected from Korea's age pyramid.

xpost Does he have it or was he just tested?

Anyway, the CPAC patient zero must be a name, right? Because how else did he have personal contact with all these idiots, and how did all these idiots know who it was who might have infected them?

South Korea appear to have tested 3.8% of their entire population. The US... 6 tests per million.

cool country we got here

italy extending restriction zone throughout the country

yeah, how many billionaires does South Korea have, though? that's where we invest all our national wealth, our billionaires. it's gonna pay off down the road when they create so many jobs

Meanwhile, Gaetz was riding with Trump today or yesterday. And now Gaetz is self quarantined, so ...

All of Italy to be locked down now.

People who show "even minor" signs of respiratory tract infections or a fever will soon be told to self-isolate in an effort to tackle the coronavirus outbreak.

The UK government's chief medical adviser said the change in advice could happen within the next 10 to 14 days.

Five people have now died from coronavirus in the UK.

London mayoral candidate Rory Stewart called the government's measures "half-hearted".
There were 319 confirmed cases as of 09:00 GMT on Monday, a rise of 46 since the same time on Sunday.

People will be asked to self-isolate for seven days after showing mild symptoms under the new approach, the UK government's chief medical adviser Prof Chris Whitty said.

It would be incredible (albeit belated) cosmic justice if Trump died of coronavirus.

Or if we all died and he was the only one that survived, but I prefer the former outcome.

Eh, he didn’t go blind after staring at the eclipse that time, he’s probably immune to everything.

from tomorrow morning...worried there will be serious panic-buying (or indeed not actually buying) across Italy in the next few hours

how far out is the UK from an italy type situation

Surely the priority in Italy from their perspective is to stop it spreading south to the same degree?

3 days? xp

I think at this point there is no "stop it spreading" and most of Europe is Italy minus a week or so.

Yeah, Whitty made the point today that there is no stopping it spreading — and even if we could there would be no point as we would just shift the problem until next winter when it we resurge. The only way out is through, the job is to keep the cases at a level the NHS can cope with.

Which also means not starting the lockdown too early, according to their modelling. The 1-2 weeks he talks about feels right compared to Italy.

how do the number of cases, fatality rate, infection rate etc compare to ordinary old flu

Singapore seems to have contained it fairly well, idk. One of the first places it hit outside China and only 160 cases so far.

Remarkably few cases in Hong Kong as well?

italy issues 'stay home' decree including the south

Xp

Yes, maybe even fewer.

Shutting stuff down seems to work.

HK had SARS-era precautions when we were there, like signs saying escalator rails and the like were either coated with disinfectant or regularly clean. They presumably just dusted off their measures last time and people with the memory of it fell in line?

xp what works for IT, works for ITaly

xp that is how an immune system works lol

hopefully this will be the end of handshakes as a form of greeting in the western world

I like handshakes

how long before right-wing conspiracy theorists/Trumpists claim coronavirus fatalities are being faked/esaggerated/"all those corpses are crisis actors" etc.

Sorry I mangled my paraphrasing. His point appeared to be in effect, “there is little point attempting to suppress the spread entirely because it’s here — instead we need to work to even out the rate of spread so the NHS can cope”.

So they’d take similar actions as others to prevent the spread, but with the knowledge that this isn’t intended to somehow stop CV in its tracks, merely to manage it.

His other point was “there is no point moving to lockdown now because when we start we can’t stop again for a long time and we don’t want you idiots going “see? Big nothing” after two weeks and wandering about again.”

He pressed home the point that timing of the lockdown start matters, even if it feels intuitively wrong.

Australian seems to be somewhat blasé about this. The Grand Prix* is still going ahead this weekend as is the footy next week. Maybe this is some cunning plan to get Victoria sick before winter hits.

NB I would like the Grand Prix cancelled at the best of times.

And then there's cheek kissing.

xps

Could do a study on comparative infection rates between regions doing one, two or three kisses.

i am thrilled we can get rid of the kiss and the kiss kiss and the kiss kiss kiss.

xpost ha

xxxpost which cheeks we mean

Usually one on each cheek in Romania.

(Right buccal cheek first, then left butt cheek.)

norovirus thread is >>>>>>>>>>>>>

The virus is usually spread by the fecal–oral route.

looks like trump is set to do this presser that was originally supposed to be Pence. Can't let a good ratings opportunity pass I guess.

adult film industry on lockdown xpost

as a foreigner I don’t get dragged into much cheek kissing / brushing thankfully

Van Morrison is playing here tomorrow night, and to keep under the 1000 person restriction he’s agreed to play two sets instead, with each capped at a 1000 rather than the 2000 regular capacity.

I thought it was 5,000! clever solution though by Van

1000 as of yesterday.

can't argue with the logic behind it

That's why he's The Man.