outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

my instinct seeing mortality rates over 2% is 'those are the countries that aren't testing'

a bit of a plug here but i'm finding the 5-minute World Service daily coronavirus update very good:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w13xtv39/episodes/downloads

Moldova has banned all foreign visitors arriving via plane from one of the countries currently affected.

Russian thrall president/colonialist-in-chief Igor Dodon made some comment to the effect of 'betcha lots of Romanians living in Italy will fly into Chișinău to circumvent their own ban, we should be careful about those snakes'.

I reckon the NHS over here will be reluctant to test. Sadly that 1% will soon start to look silly too.

Struggling to understand this from the UK's Deputy Chief Medical Officer.

Dr Harries said cancelling big outdoor events like football matches would not necessarily be a decision supported by science.

"The virus will not survive very long outside," she said. "Many outdoor events, particularly, are relatively safe."

I mean, if you've got thousands and thousands of people attending a concert or match, even if it only survives a minute it's still going to spread fairly easily. (And from the WHO site "Studies suggest that coronaviruses (including preliminary information on the COVID-19 virus) may persist on surfaces for a few hours or up to several days. This may vary under different conditions (e.g. type of surface, temperature or humidity of the environment)."

They’ve done over 26k tests!

And I can promise ye the trains are busy as usual, albeit with fewer people coughing with their mouths open. Commuters are disgusting. Also noticed a decline in people deciding to have dinner on the way home. Long may that continue.

Sorry what I meant is that as this goes on I wonder if the NHS will be too stretched in its capacity to carry on with the level of testing required.

I mean, maybe? But it’s just a swab.

Maybe. It's the waiting time at A and E, whether doctors at GP surgeries will be stretched or able to see you.

Funnily enough I've just seen a couple of these.

Unfortunately I have a cough + a fever. Turns out I can't get a test because I haven't been to any affected countries or come into contact with a known case. Even though I have been through an airport + to a concert. This seems a major flaw in the testing system to say the least

— Sam Freedman (@Samfr) March 10, 2020

Communism...is happening:

Crikey!

ITALY'S DEPUTY ECONOMY MINISTER CASTELLI SAYS PAYMENTS ON MORTGAGES TO INDIVIDUALS AND HOUSEHOLDS WILL BE SUSPENDED ACROSS WHOLE OF ITALY AFTER CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK

— Andy Bruce (@BruceReuters) March 10, 2020

I’m not overly concerned about the health of Gove’s guy tbh. But I’d guess it’s risk assessment and those tests have been prioritising people at risk and people who are close contacts of someone who’s a confirmed case. They’re not going to test anyone who turns up asking for one, and that’s against the advice the NHS is giving atm.

Cool (I know who that poster is btw, I was engaging with the substance of that post). Seen a couple from random ppl. idk, if I exhibited symptoms I would call the helpline at first and follow but I would also feel like if I was ill and I couldn't go to the GP that I could be tested at an A and E?

But A&Es have been asking people not to go there? If you have it and you go to an A&E to be tested, you could be risking it spreading to someone there for something that could make them very sick.

a colleague of mine stayed at home last week displaying v COVID like symptoms. She's back in now, though still somewhat under the weather. As we're an operational hub, we've done quite a lot of scenario planning from mild to severe, with non-essential production and other staff staying at home in even the mild scenario (someone tests positive for COVID who has been in the relevant operational hub).

I asked my colleague if she'd been tested and she said she phoned 111 and they said they wouldn't test unless she'd been to any of the at-risk countries. Given the likely stage of the virus with 'in-community' transmission extremely likely (if it hasn't already happened), this does seem short-sighted on the part of the DHSC. I would have thought anyone with relevant symptoms should be able to be tested.

I know that some boroughs of London are trialling drive through and home visit testing, but not all.

All loan repayments, including household and business loans, should probably be suspended for a couple of months right now, seems the most straightforward way of preventing a sudden economic crunch point. We'll probably find out that a couple of banks aren't as well-capitalised as they're supposed to be.

The rumour - no confirmation - doing the rounds at home is that the government is thinking about closing all schools for a month. Idk why Coveney felt the need to @ the virus though.

In light of internal developments in Italy my department is upgrading travel advice to Irish citizens, recommending against travel to whole of Italy.
The Taoiseach will today raise the issue of flights & further EU-wide responses at a meeting of the European Council. @COVID19

— Simon Coveney (@simoncoveney) March 10, 2020

a colleague of mine stayed at home last week displaying v COVID like symptoms.

Do you know what they were by chance? Just wondering what (if anything) flagged it for her as potentially more than a cold or flu.

Days ago I posted a couple of things that claimed (for example) that a runny nose is typically *not* a symptom, but lately I've seen both runny and stuffy noses as (among many) possible symptoms. But the one consistent symptom I've seen lately is that 90% of cases come with a fever.

Assuming he meant to hashtag it.

Unless the fucking thing is now so widespread it has its own Twitter account xp

xp the fever is the most common symptom iirc? I can’t remember the last time I’ve had one, it’s def not normal for me to get one during cold or flu.

Snitch tagging has so far proved ineffective against the virus

xps

Royal Bank of Scotland defers mortgage payments for customers hit by coronavirus.

https://t.co/dkcJ1tKKtR

— James Melville (@JamesMelville) March 10, 2020

If the virus mutates into sentience we'll all doomed.

Not that having a Twitter account is a surefire way of passing the Turing test.

Maybe the virus has become self-aware.

Just checked again, and looks like most reliable symptoms are fever and dry cough 2-14 days after exposure. Right now I have a stuffed up nose ... but that's it, and considering it's exactly what one of my kids had a week ago, I find my stuffy nose reassuring. But I still get paranoid. The other day I woke up sore and thought oh no, here it comes! But then I remembered I spent a couple of hours the previous day delivering heavy food pantry bags to homebound seniors and I thought, oh yeah, that's why.

xp the fever is the most common symptom iirc?

Legit misread this as 'the fear'.

Snitch tagging has so far proved ineffective against the virus

I was being bad at maths above too... S Korea have tested around 0.4% of their population (not ten times that, as I wrote). USA have ticked up from 0.0006% to 0.0026% now. UK at 0.032%.

The known symptoms for influenza and covid-19 are nearly identical: fever, cough, body aches, fatigue and at times vomiting and diarrhea. Both illnesses can manifest in mild or severe ways or even cause death, according to Lisa Lockerd Maragakis, senior director of infection prevention at Johns Hopkins Health System.

As of now, there are “no unique clinical signatures” that distinguish the onset of covid-19 from influenza, Nolan said. Research on the known cases so far suggests that the vast majority, some 80 percent, are mild. Health officials have urged those experiencing mild symptoms to self-manage from home with over-the-counter cold and flu aids, rather than crowding hospital emergency and waiting rooms.

Those experiencing more severe symptoms, such as trouble breathing, lethargy or a fever that won’t break, should call a doctor. Both the coronavirus and influenza can cause pneumonia, an infection of the lungs that can be life-threatening in infants, children and people over 65.

The definition of "mild" seems to be wildly varying from "what the average person would call mild" right up to "hellishly sick but doesn't need hospitalisation"

Idk why Coveney felt the need to @ the virus though

COVID-19 is the disease, not the virus

CHRIST

It also includes people who are asymptomatic, like the old British pair who spread it through Vietnam and are now being quarantined there.

Greatly enjoying the video produced by the HSE about covid-19 (coronavirus):

Really important public health information about steps you can take to protect yourself and your family from #coronavirus #COVID19. Please retweet. We can all play a part in this national and global effort pic.twitter.com/o8tg9jqk6m

— Simon Harris TD (@SimonHarrisTD) March 10, 2020

The definition of "mild" seems to be wildly varying from "what the average person would call mild" right up to "hellishly sick but doesn't need hospitalisation"

Yeah, I've been wondering about this. There is/was one case on Oahu, the Japanese guy who was on a cruise ship. He apparently showed no symptoms at the time, but later developed a cold and went to the doctor. I asked myself, what would it take for what seems like a mere cold to send me to the doctor? As I related about my one experience with pneumonia, I only went to the doctor when I had a 100+ degree fever and horrible cough that was not going away after a few days, but I assume some people go to the ER for headaches. In fact, I know they do.

I need to be shitting blood (or have my brain metaphorically shitting its blood) to see a doctor tbh

I once sliced my ankle open on a piece of broken glass. A nice, clean slice. I put pressure and bandages on it until it stopped bleeding, then went to a clinic the next day to have it looked at. They asked me whey I didn't go to an emergency room, and I told them because it wasn't an emergency. Duh

three weeks ago I took a really bad flu - I had the full fever sweats, couldn't sleep properly, felt cold, didn't want to eat, nausea and migraine. I've had colds that last a few weeks, and I've had bad headaches and flu-like illnesses that last a couple of days, but this was still hanging on badly a week later. I took some time off work but only the minimum as we operate on the leanest core staffing possible and things would literally disintegrate if I hadn't been able to go in, and I think not being able to take proper bedrest etc contributed to the symptoms lingering. I still have a really dry cough and stuffed nose. I don't believe it was anything other than a particularly bad flu. But my phone beeps every hour with breaking news updates about coronavirus and it's so hard not to get paranoid. I haven't even been out of the UK in two years.

I had a very bad flu around age 13-14, that I still remember vividly as the sickest I've ever been. My family was vacationing in a wilderness area so they couldn't get me to an ER quickly or easily and so for better or worse, I guess, they just let me sweat it out in bed? Idk, I had a fever of like 103+ for days. Hours and hours of my body aching unrelievedly. I crawled to a nearby bathroom to vomit and crawled back to bed. After 4-5 days it broke but I couldn't sit up or wash myself, I was that weak. Luckily, I guess, no one else in my family got it but me?

That's p much what I'm anticipating, PLUS the risk of pneumonia? GOOD TIMES.

My ex and I each had a lovely bout of mono, one after the other. Some of the symptoms were too gross to recount here. That's the worst I can recall ever feeling.

I can't remember any bout of the flu and I've never had pneumonia or mono. But I feel like if I sneeze more than twice I get bronchitis (fun asthma). I thought I had an enterovirus like 5 years ago when that was going around but I was fine after one day of antibiotics that teledoc prescribed me.

testimony from an Irish patient here

https://www.thejournal.ie/irish-coronavirus-patient-5039299-Mar2020

summary: it was grand

What does "a little bit of fever" mean? 99? 102?

I find the tales of Italian quarantine to be pretty amusing. The entire country is on travel lockdown ... except for work and other exceptions. And everything is closed ... after 6pm.

That is the single most reassuring link I've read, Number None. I'll now convince myself that the bug that had me in bed for two days (despite no real fever) was it. I'm safe now!

(this post will look terrible on my obit thread)

"I'm Safe Now!"
1975-2020

Airlines are running empty flights so they don't lose runway slots. Ridiculous.

I now have a sore throat and dry cough, working from home until further notice and I'm going to minimise going outside significantly as a precaution.

I don't know where you're at, but do you have reason to believe you came in prolonged contact with someone that could have had it?

Airlines are running empty flights so they don't lose runway slots. Ridiculous.

are you fuckin serious

A little bit of fever in my life
A little bit of diarrhea by my side
A little bit of dry cough's what I need
A little bit of vomit is what I see

COVID number 19

It's real. A side of disaster capitalism I wasn't familiar with.

xp