outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

based on what?

history of viruses

People in the UK:

With the number of UK coronavirus cases set to rise, NHS England says it is scaling up its capacity for testing people for the infection.
It means 10,000 tests a day can be done - 8,000 more than the 1,500 being carried out currently.

Confirmation of any positive test results will be accelerated, helping people take the right action to recover or quickly get treatment.
Most of the people tested should get a result back within 24 hours.

Denmark is shutting down. All schools, all non-essential public institutions. I sing in a church, honestly don't know if I just got two weeks paid holiday. The film festival that begins next week is probably cancelled.

Not sure, but apparently Denmark is the place with most new cases these last few days?

On reinfection:

"There is some evidence that people can be reinfected with the four coronaviruses and that there is no long-lasting immunity," Dr. Susan Kline, an infectious disease specialist at of the University of Minnesota. "Like rhinoviruses [which cause the common cold], you could be infected multiple times over your life. You can mount an antibody response, but it wanes, so on subsequent exposure you don't have protection." Subsequent infections often produce milder illness, however.

I think the same sort of thing is true for the flu. That's why, when the year's vaccine isn't that effective, you still typically have much milder symptoms.

Buncha fucking wusses:

Like hundreds of thousands of people across the world the super-rich are preparing to self-isolate in the face of an escalation in the coronavirus crisis. But their plans extend far beyond stocking up on hand sanitiser and TV boxsets.

The world’s richest people are chartering private jets to set off for holiday homes or specially-prepared disaster bunkers in countries that, so far, appear to have avoided the worst of the Covid-19 outbreak.

Many are understood to be taking along, on their flights, personal doctors or nurses for treatment for themselves and their families if they become infected. The wealthy are also besieging doctors in private clinics in Harley Street, London, and across the world demanding private coronavirus tests.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/11/disease-dodging-worried-wealthy-jet-off-to-disaster-bunkers

this is bleak but sounded hypothetical...

The Italian College of Anesthesia, Analgesia, Resuscitation and Intensive Care just published the most extraordinary medical document I’ve ever seen.

To help people from Germany to America understand what we’re about to face, I am publishing translated extracts here.

[Thread.]

— Yascha Mounk (@Yascha_Mounk) March 11, 2020

3)

"It may become necessary to establish an age limit for access to intensive care.

This is not a value judgments but a way to provide extremely scarce resources to those who have the highest likelihood of survival and could enjoy the largest number of life-years saved."

— Yascha Mounk (@Yascha_Mounk) March 11, 2020

but https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-11/italy-doctors-coronavirus-covid-19-quarantine-milan-health/

"A lot of patients need help with breathing but there are not enough ventilators.

"They've told us that starting from now we'll have to choose who to intubate - priority will go to the young or those without comorbidities.

"It may become necessary to establish an age limit for access to intensive care." haven't countries with socialized care been making decisions like this for quite a while in terms of apportioning treatment based on prognosis, age, etc?

yeah it's like this normally in europe

i see this

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/02/130227183456.htm

― Webcam Du Bois (Hadrian VIII),

and raise you
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-06/uops-ah060418.php

The results, published in today's issue of the Journal of Infectious Diseases, refute long-standing studies that indicated the influenza virus degrades and is inactivated sooner as the humidity increases.

aha!

The death panels we were promised by Obama

the #1 source of disinformation on coronavirus is addressing the United States at 9pm EST

Sanpaku?

lol

The university I work at cancelled face-to-face classes today and want everything moved online. It's the first week back from spring break, I taught once and won't see any of them again until April 20th at the earliest.

Shit's going to get really weird with 50,000 stressed out college kids hanging around with no official class time for the next five weeks; somebody is going to at least set a couch on fire at some point in the next week.

sanpaku is the #1 source of worst case scenario information, so fresh that it hasn't been peer reviewed. it's nice to know the outside bounds of how bad it can get.

trump is the #1 source of best case scenario information for himself

Xp the students are all still going to be on campus?

Can't wait for our daily briefing on how the consumer is faring. I've been so worried that his zeal for consuming might be on the wane.

BE CALM. IT'S REALLY WORKING OUT. A LOT OF GOOD THINGS ARE GOING TO HAPPEN.

THE CONSUMER IS SO POWERFUL IN OUR COUNTRY

Students are encouraged to go back to their regular homes but dorms and dining halls are still open but I imagine a lot of them can’t or won’t be able to go home. And there’s just so many of them.

march madness officially occurring without crowds

i'm just so livid right now. I know this isn't the first time any kind of epidemic has been politicized in the history of the United States, but it's ridiculous that it's being politicized to the point where people are outright acting like Corona Denialists and just refusing to alter their behavior.

people continuing to spread the lie that "the seasonal flu kills more people" when comparing completed past flu season data with incomplete data from a pandemic still in the early stages. it's like fucking saying LOL YOU ALARMISTS, ROB DEER ISN'T GOING TO SET THE STRIKEOUT RECORD THIS SEASON, HE'S NOWHERE NEAR IT, HE ONLY HAS STRUCK OUT TWENTY TIMES when you're two weeks into the baseball season.

just got in a semi-heated argument with this Libertarian friend-of-friend blowhard who insists it's pointless to take any measures because "we've all been exposed to the virus already" (which is completely false) and basically saying his MD says it's no big deal so he agrees. (Can doctors PLEASE STOP FUCKING SAYING THINGS LIKE THIS?)

Trump's White House locking key resources out of meetings for over a month because they classified the discussions, which required security clearances. Seriously, can we impeach him again over that? It's not a crime but it's clearly a sign he's not fit to lead.

I don't think we're likely to hit the 75 million to 150 million number now that I'm starting to see evidence that local and state governments are taking this a lot more serious than our federal government, but I'm really terrified at the financial impact of all of this. My company just completed a round of layoffs. Am I next?

I'm probably a little overexcited because I'm hungover and that is amplifying my anxiety.

I'm going to reduce the amount of time I go out. it'll save me money so there's that.

boy is there going to be a lot of masturbating going on across America.

xpost a move that makes sense, but crazy to imagine

ime there are a lot of ppl who only have two modes: no concern, way too much concern. i have a sibling who fits this category. when talking about philly sports we either have the best team in the league or the worst. when talking about coronavirus he modulates between "this is very scared i am very afraid" to trying to demonstrate how low the %'s of infected and dead are and really it's very similar to the flu etc etc. i tried to explain to him that it can be a serious situation worth taking measures to address and still not be cause for panic but it seems like he just doesn't operate on that wavelength. it's either cataclysmic or nothing.

I have a fundraiser at the end of the month, an annual thing that my friend, the sponsor, insists will go on regardless. Now, this is lower risk as attendance is going to be small and spreading out possible. so I'm not saying it's irresponsible for her to do that, but she also shared a link lamenting the "hysteria" around the virus so I'm not convinced she'll cancel it even if things get significantly worse by then (and...they probably will!).

poor planning on one part of society always unfortunately becomes an emergency for every one else. It sucks, but it's the way it is. in january/feb I thought we were causing undue stress to everyone else by posting repeatedly on the ebola thread but I didn't see it as panicking as opposed to just being practical/reasonable.

i've definitely gone a full 180 from 'pffft whatever' to like, wiping my entire face with purell wipes every time i talk so i can relate to your sibling Mordy

oh this is the ebola thread. ha.

one of the NPs in my office is demonstratively unconcerned about it, it's annoying

I'm also frustrated by the binary thinking people exhibit about large-scale issues.

The best case scenario is that the reasonable precautions being taken are successful in flattening out the rate of infection, hospitals aren't too overwhelmed, and we get back to a somewhat normal state pretty soon. At which point, the people who are absolutely incapable of abstract thought start complaining about how everyone made a huge deal about nothing, which will drive me up the wall

i've definitely gone a full 180 from 'pffft whatever' to like, wiping my entire face with purell wipes every time I talk

I feel like this thread is partly to blame.

It definitely is but it’s also my own fault for reading and contributing to it.

We'll be fine all gonna die.

xxxpost
I don't think you have much to worry about. I doubt the rate of inflection will get flattened out enough to prevent major inundation of hospitals and widespread death.

I feel like this thread is partly to blame.

As if...

Also infuriating how just about everybody's minds-eye timeline for this disruption of normalcy seems to be 3 weeks at most. Given probably 2000 cases in the US now, and doubling every six days, hospitals don't start to get saturated until early to mid May. If we succeed at flattening out the rate of infection, that pushes it even later. It will be seriously fucked up if we start returning to "normalcy" in three weeks.
One bright spot is that at least by early April, we'll have a definite read on the rate at which hospital admissions are growing, and we'll have a much better handle on whether we're flattening the curve and we'll be able to pinpoint the week in May (or later) that hospitalization will reach its max level
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-covid-19/

via the white house daily eblast, here's a profile in heroism for you
http://i.imgur.com/RhwjUlw.png

My filmfestival got cancelled, and I was kinda relying on that boost in work to create a buffer for me through the summer. My situation might be genuinely fucked up here. I also make money singing at funerals, and I've been darkly joking that I'll get to cash in there, but honestly at this point I might genuinely struggle to pay rent unless a lot of people die soon

Teen girls in the back of a supercrew truck offering to give passerby coronavirus, laughing and coughing in the grocery parking lot. While loading my bottles and tortillas, I listed the top symptoms, encouraged them to wash their hands, and to stay away from older loved ones if they got sick. Couldn't help myself. With a smile, but god this is making me a humorless fuck.

at which point they beat you up?

People are nicer in the real world.

not where I live they aren't

if I approached people doing that in FL, they would probably stab me, then write MAGA in my own blood on my forehead, then send a picture to teh local paper, who would inexplicably print it

fred have you considered singing for sick people as well as dead ones. like a sort of hospital entertainer

sorry about your film festival obv

I do that as well some times, but they are not letting singers into hospitals right now :)