We Still Have a Government, Right?: Canadian Politics 2020

One thing I've been thinking, although I wouldn't mention it to the people I used to work with (and still do, occasionally--I'm sure many have reached this conclusion anyway), is that Ontario teachers will likely have to give in on anything pertaining to money in the current labour dispute. There just won't be any public support right now; sadly, the Ford government knows that, and they'll make sure to mention it at the first opportune moment.

Unfortunately I think you’re right. We have two kids in special ed (gifted) and it will be heartbreaking if their programming gets affected (because it’s been a night and day change for them) but obviously the circumstances are no longer ideal. Everyone is going to be hurting.

By money I meant salary-related; I'm kind of hoping they stand their ground on support- and class-size issues, but in the end they're money issues too, so you're probably right.

Nah, don't give in on support and class size issues after fighting it for this long. The semester is probably lost anyway.

Number of confirmed cases in Ottawa doubled since yesterday to 10.

All bars, swimming pools, spas, saunas, ski resorts, film theatres, arcades, gyms, zoos, libraries, museums, etc., about to close in Quebec.

Basically anything fun that would draw people out of isolation.

Trudeau tells CTV shutting the border isn't off the table and to LCN that it's out of the question.

Nah, don't give in on support and class size issues after fighting it for this long.

All things being equal, I'd agree. But as the economy crumbles, and parents lose jobs, I don't seem them being sympathetic to any kind of a holdout, no matter how negative the long-term effects or how directly concessions might impact their own kids. Even absent present circumstances, this was probably headed from 60/40 or 50/50 parental support to 100/0 parents being equally furious with both sides.

Two weeks ago, when I was at my old school picketing at recess, I said to another teacher that Ford would be wise to settle everything immediately, because very soon he'd have CD-19 to deal with on a large scale. As much of a lunkhead as he is, I think his natural political instincts were way ahead of me. Like the infamous Rahm Emanuel quote, "Never let a crisis go to waste"--unsettling, creepy, absolutely true--he (or people who advise him) was probably already looking down the road and seeing opportunity.

"don't see them"

Ha, I teach in schools on Thursdays and I would be more furious if it turns out that I lost days of work for nothing. If anything, I feel like this should emphasize the importance of manageable class sizes and student support? But, yeah, you may be right - disaster capitalism, etc.

Tim Hortons is closing in-store on Tuesday.

http://business.financialpost.com/news/retail-marketing/tim-hortons-to-close-dining-rooms-only-provide-take-out-drive-thru-and-delivery

As I told a friend yesterday (admittedly a function of my own daily routines), I have a feeling that the biggest vector in Canada wouldn't be kids or seniors or anybody or anything else--it would be Tim Hortons.

The thing that bothers me about not including the U.S. in the just-announced travel ban is not anti-American bias or panic or anything except that it's based on "daily consultation" with Trump. I hope, and assume, Trudeau remembers who he's dealing with.

not including the U.S.

I get that it's economically motivated but given how disastrous Trump's handling of the pandemic has been thus far, I wish Trudeau would grow a pair.

my initial thought on that was it was to prevent a panicked rush for the border from Canadians in the US, but I do share all your misgivings. I have family in four different US states and their situations all vary wildly, it is quite demoralizing

Canada has been holding at one death for weeks

Me, yesterday. BC has announced three more deaths at the care home where the first was.

http://globalnews.ca/news/6683559/bonnie-henry-health-adrian-dix-covid-update/?utm_source=site_banner

Knowing this was coming doesn't make it any less unsettling.

there’s no reason to not go straight to the most extreme measures now. follow Quebec on social distancing, close border except to residents returning home. we know we’re going to get there soon, and there’s exponential benefit to doing it sooner

Ford says don't close on St Paddy's Day; hours later, the Medical Officer of Health says "uh, please do":

https://nationalpost.com/news/ontario-government-moves-to-protect-workers-affected-by-covid-19

Headline probably better than article but: https://www.thebeaverton.com/2020/03/canada-announces-it-will-exclusively-import-covid-19-from-us/

Ford has declared a state of emergency in ON.

'Bout time. No St. Paddy's then, I assume.

This piece has a doctor hypothesizing a scenario where 30% of Ontario contracts the virus.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/health/corona-virus-covid-19-1.5499872

The Facebook group for my former school was talking about a family there that returned from Italy a couple of weeks ago. One teacher who was in touch with the mom said they were tested on Wednesday, Peel said they'd get back to them if there was a positive, and as of yesterday they hadn't heard anything. So the cautious feeling is that that's good news.

This is good, and the most obvious thing in the world (started reading online calls for it a few days ago):

http://barrie360.com/zehrs-in-barrie-orillia-offering-seniors-only-shopping-hours-during-covid-19-crisis/

Canada's had eight deaths now, and probably tomorrow we'll join the countries with more positive cases than the Diamond Princess (a completely artificial line it's hard not to notice when you check the worldometer page).

i wonder what Trump said to trudeau that made him leave the border open to americans... must've been an intense ultimatum

"if you close to US citizens, we shut off all trade"

is how i imagine it went

my school closed finally yesterday, moving to some half-baked online esl teaching along with every other school

Yeah, going to be a whole lot of badly ran bb collaborate sessions going on

Good guess at Trump's ultimatum. And if so, I'm not sure there's much Trudeau can do except (hope this doesn't sound naive) trust the screening process and hope that there aren't a whole lot of Americans wanting to come up here at this point anyway.

I'm happy whistler shut down, that was bringing in some insane washingtonians. idk, I can see why people are mad about trudeau's decisions, but it's all just shutting the barn door after the horse got out (in my extremely uninformed opinion)

I generally support him but do really wish Trudeau would stop the measured fair-speak and just fucking lead. Less suggesting, more telling. We know what he would rather do, but In an actual emergency it’s what people need.

Border's about to close after all. Not all commercial traffic will be affected, however.

Looks that way. Good.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-us-border-1.5501201

I’d expect a full nonessential retail closing comes next

Most obvious thing in the world:

http://www.macleans.ca/education/school-closures-due-to-coronavirus-may-last-longer-than-you-think/

They'll just move kids ahead a grade, not much choice. The long-term impact of that would be inversely proportional to grade level, I would think, with kids in K-3 affected the most. Once a kid can read, education can be more self-directed.

Should I stock up more wine? 🤔

Support measures for workers announced: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-trudeau-unveils-82-billion-in-aid-tax-deferrals-for-coronavirus/

I keep checking the numbers, wondering if we're about to explode or not. Math and other countries and common sense probably say yes. We passed that artificial Diamond Princess caseload today; our cases per million is 19, which is still low, as are our deaths. I don't know if the next two weeks will be a good indicator or not.

I think you live in the same area I do, clemenza? (Georgetown) we have our first confirmed local case today. Knowing how interconnected and habitual this place is, could be in for a nasty cluster. I am no longer going to the stores until there’s no choice.

Also read just now that they are four days behind in giving the results, so the numbers are old, and it appears they have not been testing a lot of people they probably should have been under ideal circumstances (like actually having tests and lab capacity ready and clear instructions to follow).

Wow--not anymore, but I grew up in Georgetown. I'm in St. Marys now, halfway between London and Stratford. Even more interconnected and habitual, probably--6,000 people, many seniors. We've got one reported case, a 64-year-old who returned from Mexico (not sure if there were underlying conditions), but I could see it racing through this town.

They don’t know where this guy might have caught it, the 10th case in Halton, the case in that list to be classified as unknown vs travel related, so looks like we’ve potentially had community transmission right here for at least half a week.

Second death in Ontario from Halton.

http://www.halton.ca/The-Region/News/2020/Halton-Region-Public-Health-confirms-second-COVID

Hadn't even thought about it till I just got this e-mail, but one of the things that makes the Ontario Teacher's Pension Fund so strong has been their investments (most famously in MLSE, owning about half at one point). I wasn't thinking about my pension and the market until reading the e-mail.

"Many of you will be wondering what impact recent market turmoil will have on your pension. It’s important to remember: long-term performance counts for pension plans, and your pension is part of a defined benefit plan. Unlike RRSPs or defined contribution plans, pensions paid under a defined benefit plan are based on a formula of service and salary, not on the fund’s value on the day a person retires. This means we’ll continue to pay pensions each month."

So that's good--not 100% reassuring ("long-term performance counts for pension plans" immediately makes me think about long-term implications), but close.

One of Canada's 12 deaths, a Milton man in his 50s; test results came in after he died.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/stay-home-urges-widow-of-51-year-old-ontario-man-who-died-of-covid-19-1.4860802

Yeah, why is our testing policy so stingy? We're still only afaik testing people who show symptoms AND have either travelled outside or were in contact with someone else who was diagnosed (acc to our stingy testing policy). Guy had an underlying condition. Seems like they could have tested when he came in the first time and possibly put him on oxygen or a drip then (idk not a doctor)? Do we just not have the testing capacity?

Posted today:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/health/covid-testing-shortages-1.5503926

"So, why are tests being rationed? One major problem is a shortage of laboratory supplies."

So it sounds like the ultimate vicious circle, being played out everywhere; they're rationing for when things get worse, simultaneously ensuring that things get worse. I'm not blaming medical people, obviously.

Is there even a strong basis at this point for the idea that we're handling this much better than the US? Why is it so much easier for South Korea to be testing people?

At this point in time? Not really, no, unless you count the fact that our swifter response is bound to make a difference in the long run. Differences between provinces (and states) need to be accounted for as well.

I'm treating this right now as a general thread for Canadian-related coronavirus posts.

I keep wondering if my town's going to explode. Just right now, with two cases in a town of 6,000, that'd be ~330 per million, somewhere between Germany and Spain's rate. Things I think about:

Up until five or six days ago, everything here seemed to be going along as normal. A tiny bit of hoarding was the only change I detected.

The local man in the Stratford hospital is now in critical condition, and his wife has tested positive.

http://globalnews.ca/news/6698900/st-marys-man-covid-19-critical-condition/

He seemed to spend five days out and about after returning.

This is a town that's older, probably very conservative, seemingly removed from everything, and--in the little I could glean a week or two ago--probably was inclined to debunk the seriousness. The only mention I heard of it was two cashiers at the grocery saying it was not a big deal.

Even the one consoling thought I had--that you don't get large gatherings here--was quickly dispelled when I thought of one place I never go: the three or four churches in town.

And I'm not at all exempt from the risk of community spread. I supplied in a school on March 6 and March 11 where, as I've mentioned, a) there was a family that had just returned from Italy, and b) teachers were telling me a large number of kids had been absent the previous week. I initially thought it was parents keeping kids home; I don't think that anymore.