outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

similar to my department, which has been a mess for the past week - went from mandatory weekend work saturday to everyone being told "go home and don't come in next week, even if you're not set up for wfh" (almost no one is set up yet)

also spent last night trying to convince my 66 year old dad to not go in to work at his retail job, where he's the only employee over the age of like 35, he eventually agreed not to but it was like pulling teeth

the rumors going around on WhatsApp today

Relevant:

https://www.lemonde.fr/pixels/article/2020/03/16/c-est-la-mere-de-ma-femme-qui-me-l-a-dit-sa-meilleure-amie-travaille-a-l-institut-pasteur_6033265_4408996.html

Seriously what is that company going to do if its entire workforce gets sick at once?

He had a form of leukaemia. What’s the UK plan for immunocompromised younger people, many of whom will be living in house shares with people whose work is very likely to bring them into contact with the virus? https://t.co/7lOOE40BTh

— Abi Wilkinson (@AbiWilks) March 16, 2020

In Chile they are closing the borders to all foreign people for 14 days.

the most difficult part of this is that we've got a 5 and 3 year old at home and still have 40-hour a week jobs we have to work from home. so while everyone else is fretting about what Netflix series they're gonna watch or whether or not to get Animal Crossing our entire lives are gonna be keeping these kids entertained while also (I assume) working our full time jobs from home

https://scontent-ort2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/90193132_10158468935531614_668423256310546432_o.jpg?_nc_cat=105&_nc_sid=8024bb&_nc_ohc=z5Lae37_VeAAX-KkKQb&_nc_ht=scontent-ort2-1.xx&oh=7e8cafe1fb157756f80a9648c7cf09d8&oe=5E95D1CD

same for the EU, for those who are “non-essential” (i.e. who aren't health workers) for 30 days and then it can be renewed. xp to yerac

frogbs - sympathies!

we also have littles (including one who needs pretty much constant supervision). A tween or teen can more or less coast, but toddlers do not have an autopilot setting. It's hard to maintain the fiction that our "work from home" time is going to be of the same quality as it would be normally - I assume I'm going to be doing most of my concentrative work in the evening. We're used to being exhausted as a baseline state. This will stretch us yet more, but we understand there are lots of ways things could be worse.

kids are too young for Minecraft but the 5 year old is playing Super Mario 3D land and has gone from purposely jumping off the cliff and laughing his ass off 40 times in a row to actually beating World 1-1, I'm proud of him

frogbb otm

It's not optimistic about when the weather turns warm things will get better. It's been around 85F/30C and the numbers just doubled overnight.

Josh's daily schedule is what I expected from my kids, however they have surprised me and set up a pretend school.

Iirc cold and flu get worse in winter not because of the weather, but because people spend more time cooped up indoors.

Guess what people are doing more of this spring (relative to the last 10,000 springs)

Hello from Knoxville.

https://compassknox.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/IMG_4331.jpg

It was snowing a little here this morning.

My kids are doing much better today, the first day of "school," than they did over the weekend, which in normal times would have just been the weekend.

purposely jumping off the cliff and laughing his ass off 40 times in a row

love when kids do this, although it can be irritating if you have to deal with it regularly

Iirc cold and flu get worse in winter not because of the weather, but because people spend more time cooped up indoors.

Guess what people are doing more of this spring (relative to the last 10,000 springs)

indoor heating tends to be v dry though

but idk what i'm talking about, ever, so take that into account

lol same

It's plenty hot and humid in Australia, Jamaica, Philippines, etc. and the virus is currently spreading in those places just fine.

Just being out and about means less time spent in close contained quarters with other people, period. Just makes it that less easy to spread, though of course going to school, pubs etc. remains as potentially problematic.

New board description.

2xp

Speaking of, I turned my heating off last night as the milder weather has made it unnecessary all of a sudden and Liam Gallagher-style convincing me a fever is coming on

Today was a gorgeous day, it was very nice to get a good long walk along the river. A relief after months of storms

apparently we know someone who's got a 14 year old daughter who's willing to babysit while we work from home

obviously this would be very helpful but I feel like it's maybe not a good idea to let anyone in? I honestly have no clue what we ought and ought not to be doing right now

If this 14yo is otherwise staying at home as much as you are the net expected impact on public health of them spending x hours a day at your house is likely minimal, I would hazard

I've been thankful for the nice weather the past week. Getting out for a walk and fresh air for an hour has been a balm.

yes

Dude basically laughed at me for turning down his offer to play me 1on1 at the local basketball courts and saying "sorry, but not a good idea with the virus going around". Oookay. Yeah I know there's been no cases by us dude, but is it really laughable for me to want to limit unnecessary close contact with strangers???

I think I saw reporting that Federal guess is peak (here) will fall between one month and three months from now. Three months away might be the better case scenario, because it means less strain will be placed on hospitals all at once.

We need to teach online so are taking every other day and half of Friday shifts with the five year old - today is day one of the attempted schedule and I’ve played a lot of uno and drawn ninja turtles and gone for a long walk so far. Anything to keep him from watching bts and lego build videos on YouTube all day.

This felt hard til we talked to someone with an 18 month old whose husband is deployed and she is incredibly unstoked to play baby games all day

My friend is volunteering in Tanzania - she got the word this morning that they are bring pulled out, first covid-19 case was confirmed in Arusha (not far from where they are based)

*being

I think I saw reporting that Federal guess is peak (here) will fall between one month and three months from now. Three months away might be the better case scenario, because it means less strain will be placed on hospitals all at once.

― Josh in Chicago, Monday, March 16, 2020 12:19 PM (twenty-one minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

wouldn't the ideal peak be in one month, with decreasing number of cases afterward? a peak in three months just indicates a MASSIVE peak

Depends how steep the curve is

With our current trajectory, peaking sooner would be better. If we manage to flatten it, 3 months could be better.

Yeah, I don't know, it was confusing. The saw it reported as the earlier peak being the optimistic prediction, actually, but logically (to my bad brain) that seems worse. The peak coming earlier means more cases sooner and faster, vs. spread out over a couple of months. But I'm not good with this stuff.

so does that mean we'd be in our houses for 3 months

The peak coming earlier means more cases sooner and faster

this seems almost guaranteed, tbh. but the numbers are gonna be delayed because of lack of testing.

Currently the earliest I might go back to the office is April 24 and I fully expect that to be pushed back weeks longer.

I assume we will all be in our houses for weeks, but as people do a better and better job of socially isolating they can probably gradually, at some point, start widening that circle to include people who have also done a good job isolating with no symptoms etc. But even when this is done it won't be done. China, South Korea, they are on the upswing, but that doesn't mean no new cases.

This morning I tested positive for Covid 19. I feel ok, I have no symptoms so far but have been isolated since I found out about my possible exposure to the virus. Stay home people and be pragmatic. I will keep you updated on how I’m doing 👊🏾👊🏾 No panic. pic.twitter.com/Lg7HVMZglZ

— Idris Elba (@idriselba) March 16, 2020

Even then, difficult to imagine those countries reopening borders when the virus is rampant elsewhere right now.

The strange thing is that at some point this is going to feel... almost normal? In the UK and US at least we're just tipping over the precipice but there's going to come a point where this is just the way we live now and we get on with it. Which doesn't mean it's going to feel better for people losing loved ones.

good on idris for being calm and honest and kind

I assume we will all be in our houses for weeks, but as people do a better and better job of socially isolating they can probably gradually, at some point, start widening that circle to include people who have also done a good job isolating with no symptoms etc. But even when this is done it won't be done. China, South Korea, they are on the upswing, but that doesn't mean no new cases.

yea I'm curious what the recommendation on this is gonna be. how long do you have to be self-quarantined with no symptoms to be considered 'safe'?

OK, so my girlfriend has been advised to self-isolate for 12 weeks - she's asthmatic - she lives on her own, by the way. Shit is getting real. Also the advice is if you show symptoms - not the actual virus because they will only be testing in the most extreme of cases - you should stay indoors for 14 days and not go out for even food and essentials, so it seems the panic buyers were right after all. People might physically survive this but mentally they are going to be wrecks.

:(

Good luck to you and your gf, Tom.

Wow that’s the advice for asthmatics?

I don't know if that's for all asthmatics, or dependent on severity, her mother did die of it in her 30s though.