outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

indoor heating tends to be v dry though

but idk what i'm talking about, ever, so take that into account

lol same

It's plenty hot and humid in Australia, Jamaica, Philippines, etc. and the virus is currently spreading in those places just fine.

Just being out and about means less time spent in close contained quarters with other people, period. Just makes it that less easy to spread, though of course going to school, pubs etc. remains as potentially problematic.

New board description.

2xp

Speaking of, I turned my heating off last night as the milder weather has made it unnecessary all of a sudden and Liam Gallagher-style convincing me a fever is coming on

Today was a gorgeous day, it was very nice to get a good long walk along the river. A relief after months of storms

apparently we know someone who's got a 14 year old daughter who's willing to babysit while we work from home

obviously this would be very helpful but I feel like it's maybe not a good idea to let anyone in? I honestly have no clue what we ought and ought not to be doing right now

If this 14yo is otherwise staying at home as much as you are the net expected impact on public health of them spending x hours a day at your house is likely minimal, I would hazard

I've been thankful for the nice weather the past week. Getting out for a walk and fresh air for an hour has been a balm.

yes

Dude basically laughed at me for turning down his offer to play me 1on1 at the local basketball courts and saying "sorry, but not a good idea with the virus going around". Oookay. Yeah I know there's been no cases by us dude, but is it really laughable for me to want to limit unnecessary close contact with strangers???

I think I saw reporting that Federal guess is peak (here) will fall between one month and three months from now. Three months away might be the better case scenario, because it means less strain will be placed on hospitals all at once.

We need to teach online so are taking every other day and half of Friday shifts with the five year old - today is day one of the attempted schedule and I’ve played a lot of uno and drawn ninja turtles and gone for a long walk so far. Anything to keep him from watching bts and lego build videos on YouTube all day.

This felt hard til we talked to someone with an 18 month old whose husband is deployed and she is incredibly unstoked to play baby games all day

My friend is volunteering in Tanzania - she got the word this morning that they are bring pulled out, first covid-19 case was confirmed in Arusha (not far from where they are based)

*being

I think I saw reporting that Federal guess is peak (here) will fall between one month and three months from now. Three months away might be the better case scenario, because it means less strain will be placed on hospitals all at once.

― Josh in Chicago, Monday, March 16, 2020 12:19 PM (twenty-one minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

wouldn't the ideal peak be in one month, with decreasing number of cases afterward? a peak in three months just indicates a MASSIVE peak

Depends how steep the curve is

With our current trajectory, peaking sooner would be better. If we manage to flatten it, 3 months could be better.

Yeah, I don't know, it was confusing. The saw it reported as the earlier peak being the optimistic prediction, actually, but logically (to my bad brain) that seems worse. The peak coming earlier means more cases sooner and faster, vs. spread out over a couple of months. But I'm not good with this stuff.

so does that mean we'd be in our houses for 3 months

The peak coming earlier means more cases sooner and faster

this seems almost guaranteed, tbh. but the numbers are gonna be delayed because of lack of testing.

Currently the earliest I might go back to the office is April 24 and I fully expect that to be pushed back weeks longer.

I assume we will all be in our houses for weeks, but as people do a better and better job of socially isolating they can probably gradually, at some point, start widening that circle to include people who have also done a good job isolating with no symptoms etc. But even when this is done it won't be done. China, South Korea, they are on the upswing, but that doesn't mean no new cases.

This morning I tested positive for Covid 19. I feel ok, I have no symptoms so far but have been isolated since I found out about my possible exposure to the virus. Stay home people and be pragmatic. I will keep you updated on how I’m doing 👊🏾👊🏾 No panic. pic.twitter.com/Lg7HVMZglZ

— Idris Elba (@idriselba) March 16, 2020

Even then, difficult to imagine those countries reopening borders when the virus is rampant elsewhere right now.

The strange thing is that at some point this is going to feel... almost normal? In the UK and US at least we're just tipping over the precipice but there's going to come a point where this is just the way we live now and we get on with it. Which doesn't mean it's going to feel better for people losing loved ones.

good on idris for being calm and honest and kind

I assume we will all be in our houses for weeks, but as people do a better and better job of socially isolating they can probably gradually, at some point, start widening that circle to include people who have also done a good job isolating with no symptoms etc. But even when this is done it won't be done. China, South Korea, they are on the upswing, but that doesn't mean no new cases.

yea I'm curious what the recommendation on this is gonna be. how long do you have to be self-quarantined with no symptoms to be considered 'safe'?

OK, so my girlfriend has been advised to self-isolate for 12 weeks - she's asthmatic - she lives on her own, by the way. Shit is getting real. Also the advice is if you show symptoms - not the actual virus because they will only be testing in the most extreme of cases - you should stay indoors for 14 days and not go out for even food and essentials, so it seems the panic buyers were right after all. People might physically survive this but mentally they are going to be wrecks.

:(

Good luck to you and your gf, Tom.

Wow that’s the advice for asthmatics?

I don't know if that's for all asthmatics, or dependent on severity, her mother did die of it in her 30s though.

Oh man, hang tough Tom.

My wife is also asthmatic and this scares the living daylights out of me, even I don't think it's severe. Thankfully she still has a No Deal ventolin stockpile sitting there.

Best of luck to your gf and to you, Tom.

i dropped an online query into my local health centre abt how asthmatics shd proceed earlier today, if i get a response i'll pass it on

i need to pick up a new ventolin tomorrow, i will also ask the pharmacist

be safe fellow asthmatics (also everyone else)!

Bloody hell, yes all the best to you both. I really wish this sort of thing were communicated more widely, my mum has emphysema and I bet she has no idea she’s to do the same as over-70s (she is currently self-isolating anyway as her gf is sick with what looks like a chest infection)

Christ Tom, that's tough. My wife is going to be stuck at home too but she will be going out to get exercise and she has got me and the boys to occupy her (unless one of us gets sick - not entirely sure what happens then). Think with a long stretch of time like that you just need to break it down into chunks, try not to think about the whole thing stretching out before you but just get through it day by day, week by week. Fucking awful though, good luck with everything to you both.

Phew. Best to all of you going through situations like that.

lol not being able to go out for food is wildly untenable

here's hoping it doesn't come to that for me, an asthmatic

ok the health centre response is this: "There is a slightly increased risk of complications with pre-existing conditions. There are no special precautions to take other than those being advised of everyone"

(the pre-existing conditions i was asking about are mild asthma and atrial fibrillation)

The comms situation is so fucked, the 12 weeks thing is advice that will be given but not for a few days

He said there would be specific advice soon for people with the most serious health conditions. He said:
In a few days’ time – by this coming weekend – it will be necessary to go further and to ensure that those with the most serious health conditions are largely shielded from social contact for around 12 weeks.

And again the reason for doing this in the next few days, rather than earlier or later, is that this is going to be very disruptive for people who have such conditions, and difficult for them, but, I believe, it’s now necessary

Yeah, I was talking with someone yesterday whose daughter is asthmatic, and especially with allergy season about to kick in they are being more cautious than even usual, and especially making sure they have all medicine as needed.

This thread I thought was full of practical (if realistic, so be forewarned) recommendations:

I have a very close friend who’s a researcher studying public health at a major NGO, and he told me that this was THE week to practice as much social distancing as possible, even if you don’t have to go to work.

I asked him to explain why. Sharing his answers w/ permission (1/x)

— Tina Nguyen (@tina_nguyen) March 14, 2020

But within it was this exchange:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETFju7dXYAEyiy9?format=jpg&name=medium

that tweet has been making the rounds; ran it by a nurse who said it seemed "probably somewhat right" but that there isn't any accurate info or testing in place anywhere for reference yet so there is no clear "here's what to do"
federal government is fucking this up royally.

Ok, spoke to the g/f, she's somewhat jumping to conclusions. She's not definitively been told to self-isolate for 12 weeks yet - no-one's certain to be told to, unless they're over 70, there's no quibbling about being over 70 - but she is very definitely in an at-risk group. I suppose we'll find out for sure in the next few days. She's much calmer about this than I am btw!

She's much calmer about this than I am btw!

lol same here!

Bay Area to shelter in place

https://www.sfchronicle.com/local-politics/article/Bay-Area-must-shelter-in-place-Only-15135014.php

Also there is no way I have enough food and essentials to last me 14 days. Out of my way, old folk, I'm here to panic buy.

you can still get food deliveries, just hope you don't need to book slots 15 days in advance

from the sf chronicle article:

"People who are homeless are exempt from the order but encouraged to find shelter."

uuuugh

The good news is I ordered a new dressing gown, picking it up tomorrow, think I'm going to be living in it for the next few months!