I think I saw reporting that Federal guess is peak (here) will fall between one month and three months from now. Three months away might be the better case scenario, because it means less strain will be placed on hospitals all at once.
― Josh in Chicago, Monday, 16 March 2020 17:19 (four years ago) link
We need to teach online so are taking every other day and half of Friday shifts with the five year old - today is day one of the attempted schedule and I’ve played a lot of uno and drawn ninja turtles and gone for a long walk so far. Anything to keep him from watching bts and lego build videos on YouTube all day. This felt hard til we talked to someone with an 18 month old whose husband is deployed and she is incredibly unstoked to play baby games all day
― joygoat, Monday, 16 March 2020 17:33 (four years ago) link
My friend is volunteering in Tanzania - she got the word this morning that they are bring pulled out, first covid-19 case was confirmed in Arusha (not far from where they are based)
― terminators of endearment (VegemiteGrrl), Monday, 16 March 2020 17:41 (four years ago) link
*being
― Josh in Chicago, Monday, March 16, 2020 12:19 PM (twenty-one minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink
wouldn't the ideal peak be in one month, with decreasing number of cases afterward? a peak in three months just indicates a MASSIVE peak
― ooga booga-ing for the bourgeoisie (voodoo chili), Monday, 16 March 2020 17:41 (four years ago) link
Depends how steep the curve is
― Mario Meatwagon (Moodles), Monday, 16 March 2020 17:43 (four years ago) link
With our current trajectory, peaking sooner would be better. If we manage to flatten it, 3 months could be better.
― Mario Meatwagon (Moodles), Monday, 16 March 2020 17:46 (four years ago) link
Yeah, I don't know, it was confusing. The saw it reported as the earlier peak being the optimistic prediction, actually, but logically (to my bad brain) that seems worse. The peak coming earlier means more cases sooner and faster, vs. spread out over a couple of months. But I'm not good with this stuff.
― Josh in Chicago, Monday, 16 March 2020 17:47 (four years ago) link
so does that mean we'd be in our houses for 3 months
― frogbs, Monday, 16 March 2020 17:49 (four years ago) link
The peak coming earlier means more cases sooner and faster
this seems almost guaranteed, tbh. but the numbers are gonna be delayed because of lack of testing.
― ooga booga-ing for the bourgeoisie (voodoo chili), Monday, 16 March 2020 18:00 (four years ago) link
Currently the earliest I might go back to the office is April 24 and I fully expect that to be pushed back weeks longer.
― silby, Monday, 16 March 2020 18:00 (four years ago) link
I assume we will all be in our houses for weeks, but as people do a better and better job of socially isolating they can probably gradually, at some point, start widening that circle to include people who have also done a good job isolating with no symptoms etc. But even when this is done it won't be done. China, South Korea, they are on the upswing, but that doesn't mean no new cases.
― Josh in Chicago, Monday, 16 March 2020 18:19 (four years ago) link
This morning I tested positive for Covid 19. I feel ok, I have no symptoms so far but have been isolated since I found out about my possible exposure to the virus. Stay home people and be pragmatic. I will keep you updated on how I’m doing 👊🏾👊🏾 No panic. pic.twitter.com/Lg7HVMZglZ— Idris Elba (@idriselba) March 16, 2020
― Le Bateau Ivre, Monday, 16 March 2020 18:25 (four years ago) link
Even then, difficult to imagine those countries reopening borders when the virus is rampant elsewhere right now.
The strange thing is that at some point this is going to feel... almost normal? In the UK and US at least we're just tipping over the precipice but there's going to come a point where this is just the way we live now and we get on with it. Which doesn't mean it's going to feel better for people losing loved ones.
― Matt DC, Monday, 16 March 2020 18:27 (four years ago) link
good on idris for being calm and honest and kind
― Fuck the NRA (ulysses), Monday, 16 March 2020 18:29 (four years ago) link
yea I'm curious what the recommendation on this is gonna be. how long do you have to be self-quarantined with no symptoms to be considered 'safe'?
― frogbs, Monday, 16 March 2020 18:32 (four years ago) link
OK, so my girlfriend has been advised to self-isolate for 12 weeks - she's asthmatic - she lives on her own, by the way. Shit is getting real. Also the advice is if you show symptoms - not the actual virus because they will only be testing in the most extreme of cases - you should stay indoors for 14 days and not go out for even food and essentials, so it seems the panic buyers were right after all. People might physically survive this but mentally they are going to be wrecks.
― God gave toilets rolls to you, gave toilet rolls to you (Tom D.), Monday, 16 March 2020 18:38 (four years ago) link
:(
Good luck to you and your gf, Tom.
― romanesque architect (pomenitul), Monday, 16 March 2020 18:39 (four years ago) link
Wow that’s the advice for asthmatics?
― nephs and nieces spread diseases (wins), Monday, 16 March 2020 18:40 (four years ago) link
I don't know if that's for all asthmatics, or dependent on severity, her mother did die of it in her 30s though.
― God gave toilets rolls to you, gave toilet rolls to you (Tom D.), Monday, 16 March 2020 18:42 (four years ago) link
Oh man, hang tough Tom.
― Webcam Du Bois (Hadrian VIII), Monday, 16 March 2020 18:43 (four years ago) link
My wife is also asthmatic and this scares the living daylights out of me, even I don't think it's severe. Thankfully she still has a No Deal ventolin stockpile sitting there.
Best of luck to your gf and to you, Tom.
― Matt DC, Monday, 16 March 2020 18:44 (four years ago) link
i dropped an online query into my local health centre abt how asthmatics shd proceed earlier today, if i get a response i'll pass it on
i need to pick up a new ventolin tomorrow, i will also ask the pharmacist
be safe fellow asthmatics (also everyone else)!
― mark s, Monday, 16 March 2020 18:48 (four years ago) link
Bloody hell, yes all the best to you both. I really wish this sort of thing were communicated more widely, my mum has emphysema and I bet she has no idea she’s to do the same as over-70s (she is currently self-isolating anyway as her gf is sick with what looks like a chest infection)
― nephs and nieces spread diseases (wins), Monday, 16 March 2020 18:50 (four years ago) link
Christ Tom, that's tough. My wife is going to be stuck at home too but she will be going out to get exercise and she has got me and the boys to occupy her (unless one of us gets sick - not entirely sure what happens then). Think with a long stretch of time like that you just need to break it down into chunks, try not to think about the whole thing stretching out before you but just get through it day by day, week by week. Fucking awful though, good luck with everything to you both.
― ymo sumac (NickB), Monday, 16 March 2020 18:50 (four years ago) link
Phew. Best to all of you going through situations like that.
― Ned Raggett, Monday, 16 March 2020 18:51 (four years ago) link
lol not being able to go out for food is wildly untenable
― mellon collie and the infinite bradness (BradNelson), Monday, 16 March 2020 18:51 (four years ago) link
here's hoping it doesn't come to that for me, an asthmatic
― mellon collie and the infinite bradness (BradNelson), Monday, 16 March 2020 18:52 (four years ago) link
ok the health centre response is this: "There is a slightly increased risk of complications with pre-existing conditions. There are no special precautions to take other than those being advised of everyone"
(the pre-existing conditions i was asking about are mild asthma and atrial fibrillation)
― mark s, Monday, 16 March 2020 18:53 (four years ago) link
The comms situation is so fucked, the 12 weeks thing is advice that will be given but not for a few days
He said there would be specific advice soon for people with the most serious health conditions. He said:In a few days’ time – by this coming weekend – it will be necessary to go further and to ensure that those with the most serious health conditions are largely shielded from social contact for around 12 weeks.And again the reason for doing this in the next few days, rather than earlier or later, is that this is going to be very disruptive for people who have such conditions, and difficult for them, but, I believe, it’s now necessary
― nephs and nieces spread diseases (wins), Monday, 16 March 2020 18:56 (four years ago) link
Yeah, I was talking with someone yesterday whose daughter is asthmatic, and especially with allergy season about to kick in they are being more cautious than even usual, and especially making sure they have all medicine as needed.
This thread I thought was full of practical (if realistic, so be forewarned) recommendations:
I have a very close friend who’s a researcher studying public health at a major NGO, and he told me that this was THE week to practice as much social distancing as possible, even if you don’t have to go to work.I asked him to explain why. Sharing his answers w/ permission (1/x)— Tina Nguyen (@tina_nguyen) March 14, 2020
But within it was this exchange:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETFju7dXYAEyiy9?format=jpg&name=medium
― Josh in Chicago, Monday, 16 March 2020 18:56 (four years ago) link
that tweet has been making the rounds; ran it by a nurse who said it seemed "probably somewhat right" but that there isn't any accurate info or testing in place anywhere for reference yet so there is no clear "here's what to do"federal government is fucking this up royally.
― Fuck the NRA (ulysses), Monday, 16 March 2020 19:06 (four years ago) link
Ok, spoke to the g/f, she's somewhat jumping to conclusions. She's not definitively been told to self-isolate for 12 weeks yet - no-one's certain to be told to, unless they're over 70, there's no quibbling about being over 70 - but she is very definitely in an at-risk group. I suppose we'll find out for sure in the next few days. She's much calmer about this than I am btw!
― God gave toilets rolls to you, gave toilet rolls to you (Tom D.), Monday, 16 March 2020 19:15 (four years ago) link
She's much calmer about this than I am btw!
lol same here!
― ymo sumac (NickB), Monday, 16 March 2020 19:17 (four years ago) link
Bay Area to shelter in place
https://www.sfchronicle.com/local-politics/article/Bay-Area-must-shelter-in-place-Only-15135014.php
― Ned Raggett, Monday, 16 March 2020 19:17 (four years ago) link
Also there is no way I have enough food and essentials to last me 14 days. Out of my way, old folk, I'm here to panic buy.
― God gave toilets rolls to you, gave toilet rolls to you (Tom D.), Monday, 16 March 2020 19:17 (four years ago) link
you can still get food deliveries, just hope you don't need to book slots 15 days in advance
― ymo sumac (NickB), Monday, 16 March 2020 19:18 (four years ago) link
from the sf chronicle article:
"People who are homeless are exempt from the order but encouraged to find shelter."
uuuugh
― Karl Malone, Monday, 16 March 2020 19:20 (four years ago) link
The good news is I ordered a new dressing gown, picking it up tomorrow, think I'm going to be living in it for the next few months!
― God gave toilets rolls to you, gave toilet rolls to you (Tom D.), Monday, 16 March 2020 19:22 (four years ago) link
We literally do not have room to store two weeks of food. I have scheduled out deliveries of some staples in hope of having them arrive just in time. But I already know I have way too many pretzels and not nearly enough cat food.
― love will keep us apart (Ye Mad Puffin), Monday, 16 March 2020 19:23 (four years ago) link
ilx's answer to arthur dent - so that's what the d. in your name stands for xp
― ymo sumac (NickB), Monday, 16 March 2020 19:24 (four years ago) link
no-one's certain to be told to, unless they're over 70, there's no quibbling about being over 70
Talking of which, my good friend, who I do a pub quiz wiht and who is forever dragging me (willingly) to jazz gigs is over 70 and will be disappearing for 3 months - boo!
― God gave toilets rolls to you, gave toilet rolls to you (Tom D.), Monday, 16 March 2020 19:24 (four years ago) link
it seems very likely that the SF "shelter in place" will be coming to other major cities, soon. by the end of the week, i'd expect.
the bay area has 251 cases. right now, as of midnight last night, Chicago alone had 93 cases. the positives have been increasing about 30% a day, in chicago and also on macro levels around the world. at that rate, chicago will be above 200 positives by mid-week:
Sunday night (March 15): 93Monday night: 121 (at 30% growth rate)Tuesday: 157Wednesday: 204Thursday (March 19): 265 (more than SF bay area, right now)
― Karl Malone, Monday, 16 March 2020 19:34 (four years ago) link
The US president, Donald Trump, is announcing more radical White House recommendations; telling Americans to avoid any gatherings of more than 10 people over the next 15 days and advising all states with evidence of community transmission to close down bars, restaurants, gyms and other facilities.
― romanesque architect (pomenitul), Monday, 16 March 2020 19:35 (four years ago) link
and if SF is rolling this out on a monday afternoon and implementing 10 hours later, at midnight, i'm gonna guess they wish they would have put the order in place earlier.xp
― Karl Malone, Monday, 16 March 2020 19:35 (four years ago) link
xxp and nowhere in the US is doing cross-population testing
so chances are all those st. patrick's day revelers in chicago, with kids in their early 20s, have a bunch of people who will remain asymptomatic and will never be tested
argh
― mh, Monday, 16 March 2020 19:41 (four years ago) link
Tom D - good news re: gf. Def live it up! :)
― xyzzzz__, Monday, 16 March 2020 19:46 (four years ago) link
_The US president, Donald Trump, is announcing more radical White House recommendations; telling Americans to avoid any gatherings of more than 10 people over the next 15 days and advising all states with evidence of community transmission to close down bars, restaurants, gyms and other facilities._
― Lipstick Traces (on a Cigarette Alone) (James Redd and the Blecchs), Monday, 16 March 2020 20:01 (four years ago) link
We literally do not have room to store two weeks of food.
― love will keep us apart (Ye Mad Puffin), Monday, March 16, 2020 3:23 PM (thirty-five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink
same boat. I certainly didn't panic-buy but I bought roughly double what I usually do and now I'm desperately trying to eat whatever was previously in the fridge (just ate like 1/4 container of ricotta with a friggin' spoon) so I can make room for all this new stuff.
Pro-tip I just figured out: if you eat pre-cooked frozen microwave garbage like I do, get rid of the boxes and just store the meals in their plastic package thingies. Just don't forget to cut the heating instructions off the box before you toss it out (or live dangerously and guess! Make a fun game of it! What else are you gonna do for fun for the next 3months?!)
― Paul Ponzi, Monday, 16 March 2020 20:05 (four years ago) link
Just don't forget to cut the heating instructions off the box before you toss it out
take a photo!
― ymo sumac (NickB), Monday, 16 March 2020 20:12 (four years ago) link