outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

(xp) I was wondering about that every thing.

my sister works at tate britain and stayed home in hastings today -- she's not public-facing and routinely wfh a couple of days a week anyway but i gathered from her yesterday that BJ's announcement was creating decision cascades in the correct direction within management

presumably there is a way of testing if someone has had this and recovered, though seeing as they're not intending to test people who have symptoms if they don't also need hospitalisation there's not much chance of testing actually being done on the recovered. would certainly seem like a useful thing to know tho.

xxp

Yes, there are antibody tests which tell you if you're believed to be safe – they're being ramped now (in the UK at least)

Yeah the antibody tests should show this.

I may have overdone it. I have liquid handsoap, next to bar soap, next to clorox wipes at the main sink by the door.

next to my slingshot.

thx stet and gyac. i was expecting to have picked up this virus over the last few weeks working at gatwick but had zero symptoms but now apparently that doesn't necessarily mean anything which is a bit worrying as i have been in contact with my elderly mum.

thanks mini mike, very cool!

Bloomberg Philanthropies, the multibillionaire Michael Bloomberg’s charitable foundation, has announced it is to fund a $40m global initiative to fight the spread of coronavirus in low- and middle-income countries.

Announcing the plan, Bloomberg, who recently spent about 26 times that amount in an abortive bid for the Democrat presidential nomination, said:

I know it's Amazon, but short-term, anyway, any kind of hiring has to be good news.

http://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/tech/amazon-shipping-coronavirus/index.html

ideal time for amazon to perfect their stranglehold on the market as their competitors all tank, great job lex luthor jeff bezos

I know. But I'm trying to think of people who'll need money to get through this.

yeah, and i can't disagree - there are very few correct answers available right now afaict

Meanwhile:

AUSTIN — Thousands of asylum seekers crammed in border towns near the Texas-Mexico border awaiting U.S. immigration hearings are at risk of dying from coronavirus because of poor health access and unsafe conditions, advocates say.

In Matamoros, where around 2,000 migrants live in a sprawling outdoor camp where they sleep in tents and share portable bathrooms and sinks, health advocates warned the coronavirus could spread rampantly. The camp is located across the Rio Grande from Brownsville, Texas.

Last week, Global Response Management, the nonprofit that operates the only health clinic in the camp, launched plans to erect a two-tent, 20-bed field hospital in the camp to house coronavirus patients if and when the virus arrives, said Helen Perry, the group's executive director.

"We are very concerned," she said. "You have a vulnerable, displaced community in poor living conditions without access to health care, where food is communal and housing is communal. It's a recipe for explosive infection and transmission

Can't help thinking about how the English are going to react when the story shifts to "hospitals overwhelmed, cannot take more patients" because yeah it's not going to be good.

― Wuhan!! Got You All in Check (Camaraderie at Arms Length), Tuesday, 17 March 2020 12:00 (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

We've had that for a decade and the English overwhelmingly voted for more of the same. It doesn't take a million COVID-19 sufferers to fill the hospitals, there was barely a spare bed before.

Sure it has been severely overstretched for the last decade, this is of an entirely different degree though, we are talking about middle class mail-reading white people being left to die rather than be admitted.

I'm not saying the reaction will be a good one, or that it will make anything better, that would be a massive stretch, but there will be a shitshow for sure.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/health/coronavirus-uk-model-study/index.html

I don't get this. how can the US "shift" its strategy? surely containment is impossible now, no matter how dire the report looks? Italy is on lockdown and it isn't as if their cases are disappearing currently.

Iran now done good:

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/coronavirus-iran-releases-85000-prisoners-effort-combat-virus

Saw somewhere that the number of cases are flatlining in Italy

Poor choice of words!

total cases in italy increased 13% from 24,747 3/15 to 27,980 on 3/16.

the day before that, the increase was 17%. so i guess...that's improvement?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Looks like slowing down/falling on daily new cases and daily deaths.

Yeah the cases are decreasing, I believe..

that's uh...really good news isn't it?

the number of daily _new_ cases in in italy slightly decreased, for one day.

https://i.imgur.com/xPHizeR.png

daily new cases also decreased on march 2, march 10, and march 13, so i think we'd want to wait for a few days to see if there's a downward trend

I didn't realize you could click on certain countries there. Iran shows improvement. Spain and the U.S. are not good. They don't have daily breakdowns for Canada.

Don't know what to do with the info, but Cuomo reported that NY state (for example) has tested 10,000 people, which is reportedly twice what was reported just yesterday. So testing is ramping up, at least in some places, to some degree, which will mean at least a spike in confirmed cases (of course).

one would hope that extreme isolation + quarantine measures would bring down the curve! that's why we're doing it!

the best single graph resource that i've found: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#trajectories-since-the-100th-confirmed-case

(it's interactive as well, so you can hover over particular countries to the see the growth rates over time)

((clemenza, elsewhere on that same page there's a daily breakdown of Canada's cases)

You’re probably not going to see a big drop until the last lagging incubation period cases show up - you’d expect to see the same drop in China. Then what?

oops, posted all this in the wrong thread.

https://i.imgur.com/HNfXfZp.png

this is why i'm hesitant to think that italy is approaching any sort of peak for new cases. their growth rate is in the same range as many other countries right now.

(a growth rate of 28% per day will double the cases every 3rd day. a growth rate of 42% per day will double the cases every 2nd day)

(((((of course, lack of testing availability damages the integrity of this kind of analysis, but it's the best thing we have at the moment, i think)))))

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/combination-of-two-anti-hiv-drugs-proved-crucial-in-coronavirus-treatment-rajasthan-official/articleshow/74653762.cms

Is this good news? This feels like good news, even if four is a very small sample size.

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/coronavirus-health-ministry-recommends-anti-hiv-drug-combination-lopinavir-ritonavir-case-to-case-basis-1656488-2020-03-17

Apparently not appropriate for all cases according to this but still.

Deaths seemed to take a big jump today. I check the worldometer way too often--they hit 7,500 around the time I got up at 9:00, now they're almost at 7,900. That's a much faster rate than previous days.

It's going to be positively shocking the first time the US's infection total triples.

Matt that’s touched on in the BBC doc about Wuhan. AIDS patients there are actually donating their retrovirals to coronavirus patients, even though it’s not an approved treatment, and there’s an unofficial network of delivery guys who collect the donations and bring them to the infected. Or at least there was, before everyone was ordered to stay indoors completely.

I post this not because it's Tom Hanks and his wife particularly, but more as someone who wants to hear more about people who test positive and come out of it okay. It just makes everything less frightening. (I know from statistics the truth of that already, but concrete examples help.)

http://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/entertainment/tom-hanks-rita-wilson-released-hospital-coronavirus/index.html

couple of interviews with people who've had it

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-51876080

https://www.talktomira.com/post/how-does-it-feel-to-have-coronavirus

What can be done with early, widespread testing: Virologist Andrea Crisanti essentially halted transmission in the population 3000 municipality of Vo 'Euganeo, by mass swabbing everyone. Only 10% of positives were symptomatic, and as of the 2nd round of tests, the 7 or 8 positives were quarantined.

Discovered via this tweet:

According to Crisanti, the director of the virology lab of U Padua, as little as 10% of #COVID2019 carriers show any symptoms at all. He sampled repeatedly the entire 3k+ population of Vo ', one of the initial clusters.

— Andrea Matranga (@andreamatranga) March 17, 2020

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/17/coronavirus-live-news-updates-uk-us-australia-europe-france-italy-who-self-isolation-travel-bans-borders-latest-update?page=with:block-5e712ae48f085e564ad85fe4#block-5e712ae48f085e564ad85fe4

This says there's a hope of a vaccine by the autumn. Can they really do it that quickly? Or does that mean they could have *a* vaccine, but that mass-production would take longer still? Am pinning my hopes on it now anyway.

Testing alone takes months. There's months of clinical trials ahead that just began for the vaccine that's currently being looked at, in addition to mass production timing

from the US Naval Institute:

The Pentagon is starting the process of activating Navy hospital ships USNS Mercy (T-AH-19) and USNS Comfort (T-AH-20) as part of the Defense Department’s domestic response to the spreading COVID-19 virus, USNI News has learned.

“We’ve already given orders to the Navy… to lean forward in terms of getting them ready to deploy,” Secretary of Defense Mark Esper told reporters on Tuesday.

The ships will now begin the several days-long process of bringing aboard medical staff and equipment ahead of deploying along the East and West coasts, a defense official confirmed to USNI News on Tuesday afternoon.

https://news.usni.org/2020/03/17/pentagon-preparing-navy-hospital-ships-mercy-comfort-for-coronavirus-response

Yes, there's a vaccine entering human trials in Seattle now, but those won't be finished for 12-18 months, then I'm guessing tack manufacturing time on.

If the German vaccine is further along, that's great. Not clear on that.

xp

IMO give us the cocaine from Sorry to Bother You that turns you into horse person. I want to be horse now

xp to my comment above. That 10% figure was Andrea Matranga's interpretation. An immunologist Romagnani in a letter on the same Vo 'Euganeo study writess (Google translate):

the vast majority of people who become infected, between 50 and 75%, are completely asymptomatic, but however, it represents a formidable source of contagion. In Vò, in fact, with the isolation of infected subjects, the total number of patients fell from 88 to 7 (i.e. about 10 times) within 7-10 days

Which is why general isolation works/is necessary, you basically have to assume everyone a symptomatic has it and that every interaction is a chance to pick it up or pass it on.

I would hope we get to a point ( like China) where the initial outbreak has been contained and we can focus on imported infection, but it seems like you have to be in lock down for a while for that to be possible. Also testing like hell but there aren’t going to be enough tests for a while.

I don't understand why my fellow Floridians don't understand that.

"I'm fine! I don't feel sick!"

That Italy study is really promising, if accurate. But that also means the only way to stop it or its spread is to (duh) pretty strictly self isolate, which, if a drive I just took is any indication, is a long way away from happening here.

people are voting in your state right now.