The way we live now - how will covid-19 change us?

the fluids are obviously the best part.

maybe they'll use those containers that they use in the drive-thru at the bank

I think people will wash their hands more

I mean, in general, not during sex

Or who knows, maybe also during sex

i already wash them way more

there was a substantial drop in birth rates in the great depression and there almost certainly will be another one coming up for about four obvious reasons

I feel like there will be a baby boom in 9-10 months. Now that we're both WFH, I've never spent this much daily time with my wife in our entire relationship, I imagine this will continue provided our daycare doesn't close.

In 13 years those babies will be quaranteens

lol

I will be a eunuch for the rest of my life

xpost oh jesus christ lb

Lots of people who provide almost no value to humanity are working from home, will stay comfortable and safe; many more people who are necessary, important and generally underpaid will continue to expose themselves to danger in order to get the first group their delivery of French fries/artisanal dog food - if they're lucky enough to keep working.

Maybe we'll catch on to this dichotomy.

there was a substantial drop in birth rates in the great depression and there almost certainly will be another one coming up for about four obvious reasons

come on, the Ghostbusters reboot wasn't that bad

Further rise of video conferencing / remote work will probably reduce business travel. helpful for reducing carbon emissions.

After living thru one global catastrophe, will we finally get the necessary political will to tackle climate change?

soy and linseed sourdough doesn't sound very good to me

Real talk from someone on the inside of this particular issue - local government is going to be fundamentally transformed from here on out. Mayors/alderman/councilpersons (insert your town or cities structure here) will be held accountable for dead people in their municipalities that resulted from the general lack of public policy spawned by years of “our job is development” and “but my property taxes” as priority number one.

Large cities aren’t immune to this criticism, but generally they are already operating on a higher level (cops not being bastards, rent control, etc) so economically removed policy has been considered by voters. “Small town politics” on the other hand will be changed in a fundamental way. Some of which will be good, some of which will be catastrophically bad. Get ready to see the usual lawyer/realtor/developer group lose their spots (good) but prepare to see reactionary nutjobs seep in as well.

Oh also, hi. Outside of the explosion of work at my very secondary job, my main job is leaving me a lot of spare time, so I might be around for a while again.

soy and linseed sourdough doesn't sound very good to me

it's delicious!

I was chatting to a Berlin based friend who is struggling to get by but was just about surviving by air bnb-ing part of his flat. Obv that income stream is fucked for now, but was thinking the whole concept of air bnb might not recover for a long time even after this has passed.

we were already living in a time of profound political uncertainty, already living under a political system under intense pressure and strain. crises test institutions, and our institutions didn't seem to me to be super robust even before this hit.

i gave up making long-term, specific predictions in november 2016. i don't feel like there's enough specific information about covid-19 right now for me to make any prognostications that are differentiable from wide-eyed speculation. i don't feel like contemplating the potential collapse of "civilization" is particularly helpful to me, personally.

someone on one of my discords was predicting long-term quarantine. i'm thinking about how that would play out. overnight we have a world where the opportunities for billions of people, people who maybe didn't already have super great opportunities in the first place, have dramatically narrowed. people who can't work, can't learn, can't pay their bills. is the expectation that these people will quietly starve to death?

i feel like there is also a certain amount of underestimating of the social effects of prolonged social isolation. i'm a huge introvert. i don't get out much. i'm struggling to imagine a world where almost all our interaction takes place over screens and phones that doesn't involve everybody going utterly fucking bonkers. "stay at home and never talk to anybody again" isn't practical advice. as much as we are into collectively shaming people who go outside, there are folks who have a profound need for social contact. i can't bring myself to assume that refusal to live in complete social isolation is completely a conscious act of moral failure in all cases.

Large cities aren’t immune to this criticism, but generally they are already operating on a higher level (cops not being bastards

― jjjusten

fucking lol

I guess the original premise is in part about small but significant changes in our behaviour that will arise from this period of self-containment that could continue if and when things return to something approaching normal? ie after the epidemic is brought under control or effective vaccines or treatments are discovered?

The biggest area for me is around tourism, holidays, business travel etc. On the assumption that industrialised nations will return to broad normality within a year or so then a lot of things will come absolutely roaring back if there is money available - restaurants, nightlife etc being main area, because the pent-up demand will be gigantic. But when is the opportunity to just travel somewhere coming back? The crisis has barely even begun in poorer nations and that's going to have a huge effect on which countries are easier or harder to get into.

Trying to think really small here, is there a board game boom on the way for example?

Yeah the thread is really for small things, I thought there was enough eschatology literally everywhere else. Can’t even go into some threads much because some people seem to be enjoying it.

I'm wondering what happens to pop music when people can't meet up and dance. We're going to find out soon enough but there could be a sonic step-change in the offing.

Who is enjoying this?

If you don’t know, you don’t read the threads enough, is all I’m say.

I'm wondering what happens to pop music when people can't meet up and dance. We're going to find out soon enough but there could be a sonic step-change in the offing.

I feel like cities might empty out of younger people if this goes on for long. Why pay the rent of living in an urban environment if you can’t reap any of the benefits?

Coffee shops are (especially) doomed. Nespresso adoption is going to skyrocket.

I am really hoping we get a long moratorium of politicians trolling the public/their constituents.

maybe food is going to get a bit more geared to the essentials? less artisinal/bourgie

like, fewer people are gonna be cheerfully paying $8.50 Australian (as I do a few times a week) for a loaf soy and linseed sourdough

i literally made my own linseed and emmer sourdough this morning. isolation = crafts (& crusts)

remote work is gonna really fuck universities in the long run

― Paul Ponzi, Tuesday, March 17, 2020

This can't be stressed enough.

Can't see things vastly changing re: remote working.

It's partly that the infrastructure would need to improve but mainly that managers usually get off on the day-to-day control.

seeing a lot of musicians and DJs I follow on social media begin livestreaming performances from home, sometimes posting paypal or venmo links

idk whether distance learning is going to be a medium / long term proposition for most universities.

What's likely to have a more immediate financial and cultural impact is an end to international student mobility.

Managers can still “get off” on their daily control needs by holding morning sync teleconferences and regular status reports. Telework offers potentially even more ways for bosses to surveil employee behavior.

I wouldn't be surprised if a whole lot of things that should or could change, won't. I think a lot of people already long for "how things were" and will wish to return to exactly what it was like, our species being very fond of habits and regularity etc. I also think mobility (international in every way: work, students, leisure) is already so ingrained it takes more than this one virus to put a stop to that?

Card/phone payment only though, that I can see finally catching on completely. The war on cash has been going on for some time now, this might be what seals the deal. I've not had an uptick w/ phone calls tbh, and I'm pretty sure people will return to texting once the danger is averted a bit.

Is it likely that it will become more difficult/cost-prohibitive to acquire lower-demand goods the further one lives from the source of said goods? I don't think that's an altogether bad thing, if so.

I think it really comes down to a) how long we're impacted by The Cov and b) how many people are directly affected by The Cov. Memories are short and it's easy to ignore things when they aren't happening to you specifically, but I have a feeling this is an upheaval likely to induce serious change, for better or worse.

I suspect that the very wealthy will be investing in sturdier locks, more robust security systems, etc. The wiser ones, anyway.

Now that we're both WFH, I've never spent this much daily time with my wife in our entire relationship, I imagine this will continue provided our daycare doesn't close.

OTOH, I recently heard a story about Chinese couples being released from quarantine and immediately filing for divorce.

Is it likely that it will become more difficult/cost-prohibitive to acquire lower-demand goods the further one lives from the source of said goods? I don't think that's an altogether bad thing, if so.

I'm thinking the opposite, given the rise of Amazon and the likely growth of other home delivery services.

also think mobility (international in every way: work, students, leisure) is already so ingrained it takes more than this one virus to put a stop to that?

Expect anti-fom voices (left and right) to get louder

I worry that a cashless society will fuck over certain sections of society that will find it difficult to make that transition. Certainly won’t be good for homeless people

One thing that has been frustrating here (and our priorities shift around a lot but yesterday my wife was super worked up about this) was the lack of any distance learning options from our school district. We have friends with kids in private schools and they all shifted to live classes via zoom with stuff distributed via google classroom. Our school? Not a thing. they have google classroom but are forbidden from using it or assigning work because not every kid in the district has access to technology. Which ... I get that, however, the districts are going to have to find a solution for this. They were going to distribute chromebooks to some families but used the 'shelter in place' rules to not do that. Ok fine, it's early stages. But you're going to have to figure this out. I hate to be one of those people but we just voted for three more ballot measures to pump more money to our local school district and the administration there appears to be unable to solve basic problems.

Kinda feel like blind trust in bumblefuck authority, in people who play act at being in charge while demonstrating no real skills or knowledge, is gonna take a real kick in the balls over this. At long last. Which maybe doesn't mean that a more authoritarian authority won't rise up to fill the void. Be careful what you wish for, I guess.

I wouldn't be surprised if a whole lot of things that should or could change, won't

this

i'm most optimistic for improvements to the social safety net in various countries, primarily statutory sick pay

Realistically, if China and others, manage to control coronavirus and the UK, US and Australia don't, there's next to no chance parents are going to send their kids here to study for quite some time. I'd guess at least eighteen months. That radically changes the financial viability of universities and i wouldn't be surprised to see quite a few close.

More broadly, it's going to have to prompt a logistical and cultural shift in the sending countries. International study is increasingly seen as a way to manage overspill in the domestic sector. If China responds by layering in additional capacity at its domestic universities, idk how easy it's going to be to tempt people back.

One thing that has been frustrating here (and our priorities shift around a lot but yesterday my wife was super worked up about this) was the lack of any distance learning options from our school district.

I hadn't heard the term "the digital divide" in a while, but it is still very much a thing.

Kinda feel like blind trust in bumblefuck authority, in people who play act at being in charge while demonstrating no real skills or knowledge, is gonna take a real kick in the balls over this.

More likely people will double down on their existing prejudices--"My [preferred] leaders rose to the challenge, but [opposition] just wouldn't let them do what ought to have been done." Agreeing with the pessimism about long-term changes that OUGHT to be made versus those that WILL be made.

I guess the original premise is in part about small but significant changes in our behaviour that will arise from this period of self-containment that could continue if and when things return to something approaching normal? ie after the epidemic is brought under control or effective vaccines or treatments are discovered?

The biggest area for me is around tourism, holidays, business travel etc. On the assumption that industrialised nations will return to broad normality within a year or so then a lot of things will come absolutely roaring back if there is money available - restaurants, nightlife etc being main area, because the pent-up demand will be gigantic. But when is the opportunity to just travel somewhere coming back? The crisis has barely even begun in poorer nations and that's going to have a huge effect on which countries are easier or harder to get into.

― Matt DC

i'm struggling to understand the idea of "small but significant changes". there are so many people in the tourism, travel, hospitality, restaurant industries, and the potential collapse of those industries doesn't seem small to me!

i will say again that, i have relatives working in education, and the assumption is that everybody will just be able to _do_ distance learning, distance work, and that won't be a problem. and it's just not true. there's a certain strand of pedagogy that's, imo, rightly critical of people going out of the way to focus on online education, because it privileges a certain sort of learner and a certain sort of learning style. this just happens to be my learning style - i'm a self-directed learner - but this sort of silicon valley/big tech approach to things just doesn't track with most people's everyday experience. in education the smarter teachers are already writing off the rest of the year; they're spending the week completely redoing their lesson plans but the idea that any kids are going to _learn anything_ for the rest of it is just not practical or sustainable. but most people i guess will not figure this out until the next round of standardized test scores come back, if even then!

I just went outside to take out the trash and see if the bodega had any paper towels and it was terrifying. The dull gray sky and light drizzle didn't help matters much. Also paper towels were $3.50 a roll at the bodega where I wound up buying them (another had opened a Costco pack of Bounty and affixed a $3.99 price tag to each individual roll)

I timed my beer run perfectly today and picked up an 8 pack of giant paper towel rolls from the rapidly dwindling delivery that our local Safeway must have gotten just this morning. Also fresh strawberries and popsicles (people been hoarding the good popsicles too).

xp: our local kmart was reportedly selling individual rolls of toilet paper for $2.69.

I have been feeling really bad lately for people who are having to go through this alone, or worse, stuck with someone they would prefer not to be around constantly. I grew up starved of loving touch, and I know how that affected me. I already felt like I was living in a world where physical touch was stigmatized because of uncontrolled abusers and creeps without a proper understanding of consent or relational power dynamics. How many people are having, possibly for the first time, to live a life completely bereft of touch? How long will this go on, and what is happening to all those people?

https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/sns-nyt-coronavirus-department-stores-neiman-marcus-20200425-lisnd7bztncthoc32uulww4odi-story.html

The sales of clothing and accessories fell by more than half in March, a trend that is expected to only get worse in April. The entire executive team at Lord & Taylor was let go this month. Nordstrom has canceled orders and put off paying its vendors. The Neiman Marcus Group, the most glittering of the American department store chains, is expected to declare bankruptcy in the coming days, the first major retailer felled during the current crisis.

all stores will be online, 3% of the world will have jobs, we will be hooked up to machines that feed us Nerds that act as our sustenance.

all music will be made by Toby Keith

I’m cool with all of that except the last sentence.

The changes in logistics are not especially interesting or meaningful to me. If anything basic changes about 'how we live' as a result of this pandemic, I think it is likely to be that a much larger percentage of the privileged classes will come to realize that wealth and privilege cannot totally insulate them from unpredictable pain and suffering. I wonder if this will allow them to develop a greater empathy with the less privileged, but I'm not counting on it.

how did 3 weeks pass between the last post and the revive

groundhog day, holy shit

The story on the impending collapse of department stores suggests to me that gift cards will be much less desirable. In an age of massive economic uncertainty, purchasing credit as a gift will be far too risky. Tangibles rule.

we will be hooked up to machines that feed us Nerds that act as our sustenance.

so there's an upside, you're saying

to the optimism thread!

i demand nerd ropes for the common man!

I don't think I've bought something from a department store this century

I bought some stuff from Century 21 the winter before last, does that count?

It's interesting looking back at previous pandemics just how quickly all the lessons that were learnt were utterly forgotten. cf these incredibly contemporary Japanese posters from the Spanish flu: http://www.spoon-tamago.com/2020/04/25/japan-spanish-flu-pandemic-manual/

The changes that will endure, I think, are those that have been held back for too long by reactionary resistance. A lot of "we can't possibly let you WFH because X" management positioning has been put to the test and proven nonsense.

The ultimate knock-ons of that sort of thing are hard to predict. eg: it hasn't gone unnoticed by the people I work with that when we Zoom one another, the 20-somethings in Manchester and Glasgow are living in the sorts of pads that in London only the top execs get to live in. A decent number of them are mainly only in London because it's where the work is – so if we enter WFH for a year plus, do they stay in their tiny London flatshares? I think the appeal of cosmpolitan-with-property-available towns is going to call to them. That's a huge reconfiguration, if it plays out on a large scale.

There's also a rare chance right now to banish fucking cars while the gettings good. Milan is trying that; I'd love to see other places do the same. London is blissful without the damn things.

oh man, if it was possible to banish cars in the US, similar to Milan or London, I would be over the moon. I like road trips, but I hate driving, I feel like I have a 20% chance of death on the roads of FL, and I love cities with public transportation.

but even if we had the ability to nationalize public transportation and eradicate the need for them, people would say "YOU CAN'T TELL ME I CAN'T DRIVE" and would purposefully die in car wrecks to prove a point.

both stet posts otm and can def see some major traction across a number of fronts to push for the death of commuting and work-to-location

London is blissful without the damn things.

― stet, Sunday, April 26, 2020 7:26 PM

Every time I've been to London I've been terrified of fast cars there. Some people drive like maniacs there (usually in expensive cars).

that bit has got worse recently, sry

https://jalopnik.com/hertzs-late-night-bankruptcy-filing-sends-ripples-throu-1843628287

Car rental business drying up has significant effects on lots of other markets. If air travel stays depressed for a long time, the knock ons to car manufacturers and the used car market could be big.

That's gonna kill the market for shitty model cars that no one else wants

On Monday, Hertz dumped a bunch of bumble bee-colored Corvette z06s on to the used car market for a heck of a good deal. More used car deals were rolling in Saturday morning on Hertz’s website after the filing announcement. Here’s a 2020 BMW 740i for $52,949 and only 8,595 miles on the odometer, a full $5,000-$8,000 less than similar cars with similar milage in the same area, for instance.

There are plenty of less flashy cars for decent deals as well, especially if you’re in the market for one of the old rental car standbys, like a Toyota Corolla or a Chevy Tahoe. If a company that has been around since 1918 has to die, consumers might as well pick the bones clean.

damn, there are actually some pretty great deals on the site right now. It's tempting because we are expecting to need a second car at some point in the next couple years. At the same time, we are fine without one for now, and there's no greater savings than not buying something at all.

A 10-20% discount for a rental car would not be enough to get me to overlook the manner in which people drive rentals.

yeah, that's true. And tbh I'm seeing prices on Carvana that are not that far off from the Hertz prices, used car market in general seems pretty buyer-friendly.

of course this happens right after I pay off my current vehicle.

I was walking down a busy street the other day and someone yelled my name from across the street and waved. They were wearing a hat, bandana and sunglasses and completely unassuming clothing (I was wearing the same but no sunglasses). I just waved and yelled "take care", still have no idea who it was.

Ornaldo Bloomps

LMAO!

maybe it was NAthaniel, looking for Jaime Spears email?