We Still Have a Government, Right?: Canadian Politics 2020

Most obvious thing in the world:

http://www.macleans.ca/education/school-closures-due-to-coronavirus-may-last-longer-than-you-think/

They'll just move kids ahead a grade, not much choice. The long-term impact of that would be inversely proportional to grade level, I would think, with kids in K-3 affected the most. Once a kid can read, education can be more self-directed.

Should I stock up more wine? 🤔

Support measures for workers announced: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-trudeau-unveils-82-billion-in-aid-tax-deferrals-for-coronavirus/

I keep checking the numbers, wondering if we're about to explode or not. Math and other countries and common sense probably say yes. We passed that artificial Diamond Princess caseload today; our cases per million is 19, which is still low, as are our deaths. I don't know if the next two weeks will be a good indicator or not.

I think you live in the same area I do, clemenza? (Georgetown) we have our first confirmed local case today. Knowing how interconnected and habitual this place is, could be in for a nasty cluster. I am no longer going to the stores until there’s no choice.

Also read just now that they are four days behind in giving the results, so the numbers are old, and it appears they have not been testing a lot of people they probably should have been under ideal circumstances (like actually having tests and lab capacity ready and clear instructions to follow).

Wow--not anymore, but I grew up in Georgetown. I'm in St. Marys now, halfway between London and Stratford. Even more interconnected and habitual, probably--6,000 people, many seniors. We've got one reported case, a 64-year-old who returned from Mexico (not sure if there were underlying conditions), but I could see it racing through this town.

They don’t know where this guy might have caught it, the 10th case in Halton, the case in that list to be classified as unknown vs travel related, so looks like we’ve potentially had community transmission right here for at least half a week.

Second death in Ontario from Halton.

http://www.halton.ca/The-Region/News/2020/Halton-Region-Public-Health-confirms-second-COVID

Hadn't even thought about it till I just got this e-mail, but one of the things that makes the Ontario Teacher's Pension Fund so strong has been their investments (most famously in MLSE, owning about half at one point). I wasn't thinking about my pension and the market until reading the e-mail.

"Many of you will be wondering what impact recent market turmoil will have on your pension. It’s important to remember: long-term performance counts for pension plans, and your pension is part of a defined benefit plan. Unlike RRSPs or defined contribution plans, pensions paid under a defined benefit plan are based on a formula of service and salary, not on the fund’s value on the day a person retires. This means we’ll continue to pay pensions each month."

So that's good--not 100% reassuring ("long-term performance counts for pension plans" immediately makes me think about long-term implications), but close.

One of Canada's 12 deaths, a Milton man in his 50s; test results came in after he died.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/stay-home-urges-widow-of-51-year-old-ontario-man-who-died-of-covid-19-1.4860802

Yeah, why is our testing policy so stingy? We're still only afaik testing people who show symptoms AND have either travelled outside or were in contact with someone else who was diagnosed (acc to our stingy testing policy). Guy had an underlying condition. Seems like they could have tested when he came in the first time and possibly put him on oxygen or a drip then (idk not a doctor)? Do we just not have the testing capacity?

Posted today:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/health/covid-testing-shortages-1.5503926

"So, why are tests being rationed? One major problem is a shortage of laboratory supplies."

So it sounds like the ultimate vicious circle, being played out everywhere; they're rationing for when things get worse, simultaneously ensuring that things get worse. I'm not blaming medical people, obviously.

Is there even a strong basis at this point for the idea that we're handling this much better than the US? Why is it so much easier for South Korea to be testing people?

At this point in time? Not really, no, unless you count the fact that our swifter response is bound to make a difference in the long run. Differences between provinces (and states) need to be accounted for as well.

I'm treating this right now as a general thread for Canadian-related coronavirus posts.

I keep wondering if my town's going to explode. Just right now, with two cases in a town of 6,000, that'd be ~330 per million, somewhere between Germany and Spain's rate. Things I think about:

Up until five or six days ago, everything here seemed to be going along as normal. A tiny bit of hoarding was the only change I detected.

The local man in the Stratford hospital is now in critical condition, and his wife has tested positive.

http://globalnews.ca/news/6698900/st-marys-man-covid-19-critical-condition/

He seemed to spend five days out and about after returning.

This is a town that's older, probably very conservative, seemingly removed from everything, and--in the little I could glean a week or two ago--probably was inclined to debunk the seriousness. The only mention I heard of it was two cashiers at the grocery saying it was not a big deal.

Even the one consoling thought I had--that you don't get large gatherings here--was quickly dispelled when I thought of one place I never go: the three or four churches in town.

And I'm not at all exempt from the risk of community spread. I supplied in a school on March 6 and March 11 where, as I've mentioned, a) there was a family that had just returned from Italy, and b) teachers were telling me a large number of kids had been absent the previous week. I initially thought it was parents keeping kids home; I don't think that anymore.

But I mean, swifter in terms of administering tests to a small sliver of the population?xp

When you put it that way…

Turns out Milton man was a friend of a friend. Also my one kid goes to a Milton school, and I’m actually not feeling 100% well, despite being pretty careful with myself these past few weeks. Just nagging stuff but it’s stressing me out. Does sound like you have community transmission happening out there too clemenza, stay safe.

Regarding the insufficient tests and the supply shortages, my theory is just that they were caught out underfunded, disorganized, and over reliant on supply manufacturing from other places that was taken for granted as secure or easily replaceable (not certain on that one, but since we manufacture so little here anymore that can be done more cheaply elsewhere it seems an obvious answer) compounded by a larger problem of skewed priorities because of the easy abundance of everything made it feel like “essentials” are almost optional. I’ve been quietly agonizing to anyone who would listen about the madness of outsourcing too much. Especially food. I’m honestly not sure whether to believe them when they reassure us there. So many farms here (in the prime canadian growing area for many things) turned to houses. Ugh, I’m just venting now.

Thanks, you too. I've been noticing every last thing the last two weeks--when I clear my throat, a little twinge in the back, everything--which is also around when I started preemptively taking Tylenol flu tablets once a day, and lemon-drink stuff with my tea every other night. Which is insane, I know. By "I'm not at all exempt from the risk of community spread," I actually meant as an asymptomatic carrier who could have passed it on to someone else. I keep thinking of those supply days back in Brampton, and also that I was more or less out and about normally until two weeks ago.

Right, same. I was aware and vigilantly watching the stats while doing so too, so I can’t help but feel the daily reports that there were only travel related cases here were misleading. They could have been very clear that those were the only cases getting tested at all, and there was no other monitoring in place to catch cases that were not. I’m not attributing it to malice, but it’s very disappointing.

Just spent a few minutes looking around for answers and while you can find a lot of references to shortages and fragile supply lines, rarely does it say exactly who actually makes all this stuff we suddenly need. So yeah, not us I guess, but can it be us? Do we have those manufacturing capabilities anywhere still? I’d like to see someone get on that.

The US and UK are taking measures to make companies start producing some of these things even if that is not what they usually do.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/trump-invoked-the-defense-production-act-heres-how-he-can-use-its-powers.html

https://fortune.com/2020/03/17/coronavirus-mask-hand-sanitizer-factory/

Anyway, if anyone needs info on applying for benefits: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/apply-emergency-benefits-1.5501977

Biggest one-day jump in Ontario, with March break people about to return (with difficulty? I don't know).

http://www.narcity.com/news/ca/on/covid-19-in-ontario-50-new-cases-on-friday-is-the-provinces-biggest-single-day-jump

Wow

Even if the US manufacturers a surplus of equipment, if the current crew is in charge, I’m not exactly confident providing them to us won’t be considered too unethical to use as leverage. When it comes to absolute essentials, our govt should probably be operating under the assumption that we *could* be on our own?

With the 4/5 day delay in processing, plus the time to become ill, then get assessed and tested, I’m estimating break related cases should only just begin to show up in the stats in 7-10 days.

On a lighter note, killer hornets are on their way.

http://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/b-c-warns-of-likely-return-of-asian-giant-hornets-1.4861602?fbclid=IwAR2GcFFGkP4NVdcOq3V855V_UhwpA_5wLDRRwIg40dd8oJrWTl9SluuSrks

Yeah, no, my point was "if the US and UK can do it, why can't we?", not "the US and UK should be on the case soon".

Oh my apologies! :) I did misinterpret. Phew, If we all get through this, we should plan one hell of a Toronto reunion FAP. Those were good days!

No worries, probably wasn't clear. And that sounds fun: I'm not out that way that often but I could plan a trip.

http://globalnews.ca/news/6710957/etfo-ontario-tentative-agreement/?utm_source=notification/

Surprised and happy. I don't know what it means until I see the agreement, but maybe my original guess was right: that Ford finally decided he just wanted this out of the way right now.

Smaller class sizes and levels of employment might have suddenly seemed like a good thing to maintain?

Could very well be, assuming teachers held on that; both parties had lots of incentive right now to settle.

Canada's progression is starting to look like every other country's.

http://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/canada/

Lecce added that the government is committed to maintaining class sizes and full-day kindergarten, investing in special education, and a "fair" increase in compensation.

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/mobile/ontario-government-reaches-tentative-agreement-with-etfo-1.4862278

we need to kick it up a notch and issue shelter-in-place today. i went to the park in vancouver today and there were TWO groups of like two dozen people playing SOCCER. like full games across two fields

how is doug ford better at this than the NDP here: https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/doug-ford-food-rent-coronavirus_ca_5e7510e9c5b6eab77947f493

ford and legault being proactive and pro-renter is giving me some serious cognitive dissonance

Sounds like Horwath is right that it should be guaranteed in law but, yeah, it's a good move. What are the BC NDP doing?

SAQs apparently closing after today, have to imagine LCBOs will soon follow

Only on Sundays afaik.

Otherwise their opening hours are now 12-6 and no more than 10 or 20 customers may enter at a time, depending on the size of the store.

oh I saw the news and thought it meant they were closing STARTING today, lol. I was thinking, how will QCers survive...

I was checking to see if there have been any more local cases and came across this, posted 17 hours ago:

http://www.kitchenertoday.com/coronavirus-covid-19-local-news/over-50-nurses-exposed-to-covid-19-at-st-marys-general-hospital-ona-2188064

I know that's the story everywhere right now. Still, extremely unsettling in a small town.

Yikes, yeah that doesn’t sound good. My takeaway from that is that pretty much all medical staff in hospitals are going to get exposed so whole hospital becomes a danger zone. No wonder they are warning of healthcare collapse - regular care can’t function alongside that. Understanding the new hospital builds in China now weren’t simply done for capacity.

^Yes.

http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2020/03/22/at-least-thirteen-toronto-doctors-nurses-longterm-care-workers-infected-with-covid-19.html