outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

a happy couple enters the bar
dangerously close to one another

The information about asymptomatic carriers is one of the most confusing aspects right now, and the way it is being shared, even by the most intelligent health experts, is not helping at all.

― Mario Meatwagon (Moodles), Wednesday, 18 March 2020 10:48

Agreed. The official WHO guidance is "The risk of catching COVID-19 from someone with no symptoms at all is very low. However, many people with COVID-19 experience only mild symptoms. This is particularly true at the early stages of the disease. It is therefore possible to catch COVID-19 from someone who has, for example, just a mild cough and does not feel ill."

But yes, there's been research that seems to run counter to that, though perhaps it's just down the the boundary between no symptoms and mild symptoms.

Similarly, the exact manner in which is it spread seems not settled yet. This is a good piece about how much it can be transmitted in the air:

https://www.wired.com/story/they-say-coronavirus-isnt-airborne-but-its-definitely-borne-by-air/

Not effective with severe cases, but looks promising?

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/japanese-flu-drug-clearly-effective-in-treating-coronavirus-says-china

I've been thinking that part of the issue with "asymptomatic transmission" is the subjectivity of "symptoms." I'm so used to going to work with "just a cold" or feeling "under the weather" that I barely notice when I do anymore. Just as I was typing this, I coughed a couple times, but I've probably coughed no more than 6-10 times all day. I have seasonal allergies too, which often lead to having mild cold or flu-like symptoms.

It seemed counter to what we know about viruses to think that a truly "asymptomatic" person could easily and widely transmit, but I think there are probably a lot of transmitters who just don't think they are "sick" because they only feel a routine kind of under the weather.

Lesson to learn here is stop working as soon as you feel under the weather and go lie down, I guess.

Again, it comes down to messaging. If the truth is that there are thousands of people with zero symptoms spreading this willy nilly, then a completely different approach is needed. None of the official guidance makes it clear though.

it seems entirely possible to me now that I actually caught this in February

Lesson to learn here is stop working as soon as you feel under the weather and go lie down, I guess.

― silby, Wednesday, March 18, 2020 10:11 PM (five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

This actually isn't a crazy idea for what the post "peak coronavirus" (but pre vaccine) work world could look like, if we actually had sensible policies. Like if there was easy home or on-site testing available and any time a person felt even a little sick they could be tested and kept home, that would go a long way.

I mean having a mild cold or a bad allergy day is a good enough reason to go home and lie down imo

Florida has 328 now. a mere two weeks ago, we had only 6 known cases.

How many tests were available 2 weeks ago?

Spring breakers looking to triple that figure in a day or so, it seems.

damn.

A message from the Chief Physician of Rikers Island for the judges and prosecutors of New York: We who care for those you detain noticed how swiftly you closed your courts in response to #COVID19 1/x

— Ross MacDonald (@RossMacDonaldMD) March 19, 2020

How many tests were available 2 weeks ago?

― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Thursday, March 19, 2020 12:14 AM bookmarkflaglink

idk, we seemed to be testing hundreds at a time (200-300), but probably still not widely available

Scotty form Marketing is doing the worst Moses impression ever.

just one study, but interesting:

People with type A blood are more likely to catch coronavirus while those with type O seem more resistant, a preliminary study of about 2,000 patients in China showed.

I'm type A, I'm not going to worry about it

What abt cut vs uncut did they check that

I’m type o negative

Like the band
*intense eye stare*

Finally, some benefit to being a universal donor aside from constant phone calls from the blood bank if I go too long without donating.

I don't normally plug my own work on here but in case anyone's interested in knowing what's happening in Southeast Asia, you can follow me here: https://twitter.com/rozlatiff

I live in Malaysia which currently has the highest rate of infections in the region, most of which stemmed from ONE religious event attended by about 16,000 people. My colleagues and I reported on it here.

We are currently under country-wide lockdown - no citizens allowed to leave, no foreigners allowed in, all businesses shut except for essential services and supermarkets/grocery stores. And even then there are still idiots travelling between states to see relatives, holding weddings, and crowding the supermarkets.

Been working and focused on this for weeks... I’m so tired, you guys.

the highest rate of infections in the region, most of which stemmed from ONE religious event attended by about 16,000 people.

Feels like a minor miracle for the US that this happened 4-6 weeks too early for baseball Opening Day and 10-12 weeks too late for peak football season.

Good luck Roz and please take some time to look after yourself

Thanks Nick. It’s more mentally than physically exhausting now - working from home means there’s not much else to do apart from refreshing Twitter and keeping tabs of multiple chat groups.

Yes best wishes Roz, thanks for the information.

just one study, but interesting:

People with type A blood are more likely to catch coronavirus while those with type O seem more resistant, a preliminary study of about 2,000 patients in China showed.

― sleeve, Thursday, 19 March 2020 05:25 (seven hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

As usual no mention of us poor forgotten type-b guys

Perhaps they did the study in... Taipei

As the universal leech (type AB), I’m pretty sanguine about it.

I wish I knew what my blood type was. Or maybe ignorance is bliss, in this case.

One thing I don't understand about the projections that say 60% of the world population will get the virus: the outbreak has peaked at 80.000-ish known cases in China. Presuming the tail of the curve mirrors the rise (and to be fair, idk if that's a reasonable assumption), you would end up with 160,000-ish known cases in China, which is a very small proportion of the total population. Obviously, you have to account for the extreme lockdown in China, and there's a lot of other variables at play/not every country's curve is going to look the same, there's the possibility of secondary outbreaks, etc. I am not a statistician, I've been scratching my head about this for a while.

I think O is the most common one

Lack of testing suppresses those numbers though xp

Here in Wales we're on something like 170 confirmed cases but the true number is thought to be in the thousands

There's almost inevitably going to be a massive second outbreak somewhere in China, although maybe not in Hubei.

is the number given for China strictly for those that became ill, and the 60% figure including the ill and just those that carry are but not affected, i wonder?
xxpost

It depends on geography. A is more common in some places.

https://www2.palomar.edu/anthro/vary/vary_3.htm

Perhaps they did the study in... Taipei

Thumps up!

Stay safe Roz, you're doing god work.

There is a very popular medium piece about true numbers vs official numbers. I don't want to post it because I didn't check it but if you search for Tomas Pueyo you can find it.

There is a lot we still don't know. How the virus spread in different seasons/climates, whether it can or will make a resurgence days/weeks/months after any promising number drop. Most importantly, as always, how many people actually have or had it, which is essential information for when we need to get everything up and running again.

someone may have already posted it since it's so popular. xpost

(Man, apologies, it seems writing before the coffee kicks in causes me to drop letters and go into caveman talk.)

Today might be my first day venturing to a supermarket, btw. I'll report back (but wash my hands really well first).

that was a great article, thx Yerac
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

Someone I interviewed six days ago has gone into quarantine after coming into close contact with another person who tested positive. Am waiting for their test results to come back, how fun.

"When everything around you is uncertain, having a supply of ammunition can make our customers feel safer."

http://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/business/coronavirus-gun-sales/index.html

fuck hi def

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/19/tech/netflix-internet-overload-eu/index.html

icymi

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/18/1928623/-Reports-reveal-what-officials-are-being-told-about-COVID-19-and-it-s-not-what-they-are-telling-us

(expect a year or longer)

This simulation is interesting for understanding the spread of disease generally, and how measures like social distancing contribute to flattening the curve.

they messed up the messaging so bad but we are where we are. they really need to shelter in place everywhere.

trumps presser today did make me chuckle w his rickles-like delivery of (paraprhased) "a lotta you are sitting too close.. probably 75 percent of you should leave...you two right there should definitely leave"

“Supply chain and transportation impacts due to ongoing COVID-19 outbreak will likely result in significant shortages for government, private sector, and individual U.S. consumers.”

Ahhh. Just when I was feeling relatively calm about our ability to stay isolated for a while.

Today, Italy surpassed China in Covid19 deaths. 41 035 cases, 3405 deaths, 2498 in serious/critical condition. 8.3% CFR. The US is still running 10-11 days behind, maybe 18-19 on a per capita basis.

My metro area has among the highest cases/capita and the highest case growth rate in the country. Still consuming perishable goods from a week ago, before breaking into the potato flakes. My Red Cross volunteer application is still pending, but I'm taking unusual comfort in avoiding depth charges at 150 m in a video game.