outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

Yes best wishes Roz, thanks for the information.

just one study, but interesting:

People with type A blood are more likely to catch coronavirus while those with type O seem more resistant, a preliminary study of about 2,000 patients in China showed.

― sleeve, Thursday, 19 March 2020 05:25 (seven hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

As usual no mention of us poor forgotten type-b guys

Perhaps they did the study in... Taipei

As the universal leech (type AB), I’m pretty sanguine about it.

I wish I knew what my blood type was. Or maybe ignorance is bliss, in this case.

One thing I don't understand about the projections that say 60% of the world population will get the virus: the outbreak has peaked at 80.000-ish known cases in China. Presuming the tail of the curve mirrors the rise (and to be fair, idk if that's a reasonable assumption), you would end up with 160,000-ish known cases in China, which is a very small proportion of the total population. Obviously, you have to account for the extreme lockdown in China, and there's a lot of other variables at play/not every country's curve is going to look the same, there's the possibility of secondary outbreaks, etc. I am not a statistician, I've been scratching my head about this for a while.

I think O is the most common one

Lack of testing suppresses those numbers though xp

Here in Wales we're on something like 170 confirmed cases but the true number is thought to be in the thousands

There's almost inevitably going to be a massive second outbreak somewhere in China, although maybe not in Hubei.

is the number given for China strictly for those that became ill, and the 60% figure including the ill and just those that carry are but not affected, i wonder?
xxpost

It depends on geography. A is more common in some places.

https://www2.palomar.edu/anthro/vary/vary_3.htm

Perhaps they did the study in... Taipei

Thumps up!

Stay safe Roz, you're doing god work.

There is a very popular medium piece about true numbers vs official numbers. I don't want to post it because I didn't check it but if you search for Tomas Pueyo you can find it.

There is a lot we still don't know. How the virus spread in different seasons/climates, whether it can or will make a resurgence days/weeks/months after any promising number drop. Most importantly, as always, how many people actually have or had it, which is essential information for when we need to get everything up and running again.

someone may have already posted it since it's so popular. xpost

(Man, apologies, it seems writing before the coffee kicks in causes me to drop letters and go into caveman talk.)

Today might be my first day venturing to a supermarket, btw. I'll report back (but wash my hands really well first).

that was a great article, thx Yerac
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

Someone I interviewed six days ago has gone into quarantine after coming into close contact with another person who tested positive. Am waiting for their test results to come back, how fun.

"When everything around you is uncertain, having a supply of ammunition can make our customers feel safer."

http://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/business/coronavirus-gun-sales/index.html

fuck hi def

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/19/tech/netflix-internet-overload-eu/index.html

icymi

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/18/1928623/-Reports-reveal-what-officials-are-being-told-about-COVID-19-and-it-s-not-what-they-are-telling-us

(expect a year or longer)

This simulation is interesting for understanding the spread of disease generally, and how measures like social distancing contribute to flattening the curve.

they messed up the messaging so bad but we are where we are. they really need to shelter in place everywhere.

trumps presser today did make me chuckle w his rickles-like delivery of (paraprhased) "a lotta you are sitting too close.. probably 75 percent of you should leave...you two right there should definitely leave"

“Supply chain and transportation impacts due to ongoing COVID-19 outbreak will likely result in significant shortages for government, private sector, and individual U.S. consumers.”

Ahhh. Just when I was feeling relatively calm about our ability to stay isolated for a while.

Today, Italy surpassed China in Covid19 deaths. 41 035 cases, 3405 deaths, 2498 in serious/critical condition. 8.3% CFR. The US is still running 10-11 days behind, maybe 18-19 on a per capita basis.

My metro area has among the highest cases/capita and the highest case growth rate in the country. Still consuming perishable goods from a week ago, before breaking into the potato flakes. My Red Cross volunteer application is still pending, but I'm taking unusual comfort in avoiding depth charges at 150 m in a video game.

Worldwide, it's getting close to 10,000 deaths.

Well getting sick during all this really doing wonders for my anxiety.

A guy in California just died after going to Disney World and Universal Studios in Orlando. 34 yrs old but had asthma and bronchitis.

it's a small world after all

sorry folks

fuckin love it

I have a cousin who was supposed to go to Disney World around the same time that guy was there. Shortly before her trip she got in a really bad car accident so had to postpone the trip.

34 yrs old but had asthma and bronchitis.

― nickn, Thursday, March 19, 2020 2:46 PM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

oh cool

at first i was like "i don't care about getting it, i care about unknowingly giving it to someone else" but i really care about getting it now lol

i mean our medical histories aren't exact matches so who knows. good luck y'all may you have as little anxiety about this as possible

not talking about anything people did itt, but I get tired of every death of someone under 60 being followed up by someone quickly Kool-Aid-manning in with a "b-b-but he was a health risk!". keeps insinuating either that people that aren't a health risk don't need to worry about it or that it's less important of a death if a health risk/old person dies.

otoh I was off of FB for many hours today and oh such a good feeling.

I care about being patient number 9871 or whatever, the guy who unwittingly transferred the virus to three key contacts who then infected thousands

otm

turns out that I know multiple people who met with someone with an infected person last week, but I haven’t talked to them for quite a while!

not talking about anything people did itt, but I get tired of every death of someone under 60 being followed up by someone quickly Kool-Aid-manning in with a "b-b-but he was a health risk!". keeps insinuating either that people that aren't a health risk don't need to worry about it or that it's less important of a death if a health risk/old person dies.

they could mean that, but you can also more generously think of it as an attempt to do some naive reasoning about probability, in order to allay one's own and others' anxieties. often that sounds like all-or-nothing reasoning about who can and can't be affected, but it's natural to suppress some ceteris paribus clause or something like that that acknowledges, of course, anyone might be affected and more or less according to various factors that make them more or less probable to.

i mean that makes sense too and I don't want to discount that many are doing that, particularly those at risk who are worried.

buuuut, I've seen the uglier side of it too so I'm often on the defensive.

i think its not only natural to frame things as they are most likely to affect you and the people closest to you first, its really understandable

its understandable also how ppl with these elevated risks are going to feel about that

easing up on our own natural reactions to either natural behaviour seems like it could be a fair thing to try to do

easing up what kind of monster are you

It's also just: if this killed all people at the rate it kills old people and those with existing respiratory problems, it feels like overall death toll would be that much more terrifying. Though of course, that's just a naive take and I don't know how much such an increased lethality would diminish its spread.

State governor gave speech saying he expects 56% of the state's population (39.56M * 56% = 2.2M) to have been infected with COVID-19 in the next 8 weeks.

Conservative mortality rate = 1% = ~22k deaths statewide in the next few months.

whoops, math is all wrong there: 22M infected, 220k anticipated deaths in next few months.

1% in South Korea. Young population thanks to the cult, and enough respirators for everyone.

I hope the US keeps it under 3%.

and the really important thing about informing ppl not at *as much* risk is that the main thing that is going to kill ppl is icu space, attn and ventilators not being available

keeping those who will get this but are not at critical risk from it away from emergency resources is vital

we all have health risks. if not today, yesterday or tomorrow. definitely tomorrow.