outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

not talking about anything people did itt, but I get tired of every death of someone under 60 being followed up by someone quickly Kool-Aid-manning in with a "b-b-but he was a health risk!". keeps insinuating either that people that aren't a health risk don't need to worry about it or that it's less important of a death if a health risk/old person dies.

they could mean that, but you can also more generously think of it as an attempt to do some naive reasoning about probability, in order to allay one's own and others' anxieties. often that sounds like all-or-nothing reasoning about who can and can't be affected, but it's natural to suppress some ceteris paribus clause or something like that that acknowledges, of course, anyone might be affected and more or less according to various factors that make them more or less probable to.

i mean that makes sense too and I don't want to discount that many are doing that, particularly those at risk who are worried.

buuuut, I've seen the uglier side of it too so I'm often on the defensive.

i think its not only natural to frame things as they are most likely to affect you and the people closest to you first, its really understandable

its understandable also how ppl with these elevated risks are going to feel about that

easing up on our own natural reactions to either natural behaviour seems like it could be a fair thing to try to do

easing up what kind of monster are you

It's also just: if this killed all people at the rate it kills old people and those with existing respiratory problems, it feels like overall death toll would be that much more terrifying. Though of course, that's just a naive take and I don't know how much such an increased lethality would diminish its spread.

State governor gave speech saying he expects 56% of the state's population (39.56M * 56% = 2.2M) to have been infected with COVID-19 in the next 8 weeks.

Conservative mortality rate = 1% = ~22k deaths statewide in the next few months.

whoops, math is all wrong there: 22M infected, 220k anticipated deaths in next few months.

1% in South Korea. Young population thanks to the cult, and enough respirators for everyone.

I hope the US keeps it under 3%.

and the really important thing about informing ppl not at *as much* risk is that the main thing that is going to kill ppl is icu space, attn and ventilators not being available

keeping those who will get this but are not at critical risk from it away from emergency resources is vital

we all have health risks. if not today, yesterday or tomorrow. definitely tomorrow.

School where wife teaches had a parent test positive -- the parent attended a concert at the school last wednesday that obviously should have been fucking cancelled. Generally still quite angry schools weren't closed earlier -- we kept our kids home last friday and my wife took the car to work instead of the train. So far we've been isolated about 7 days (other than a single masked/gloved grocery store trip) and none of us have symptoms, so we're at least well past the median incubation, but I'll feel better when we pass two weeks.

It's hard to hear how some friends and relatives are doing because there's really just nothing I can tell them to make anything better. 74-yr-old aunt and her husband trapped in her 1BR apartment building, mostly depending on SS, husband has a low paying job in retail that's now closed (thankfully they won a housing lottery). They are obviously miserable, only thing my aunt really lives for is the gym and she can't go. Talked to one of my best college friends today and everything just sucks for him -- he's probably losing his job, delayed in finding a more permanent one, went through a breakup (not corona related obv) and can't go see his family, just stuck in an apt alone. I feel relatively lucky and privileged in my situation but still panic several times a day about my own and my family's health, the economy, and/or the fact that it seems like a matter of time before someone I care about is very sick in the hospital and maybe even dies, or before one of my kids' friends loses a parent or grandparent, or before we start hearing all kinds of stories about grave illness and death from people within a couple degrees of us.

Shit you don't want to see but everyone probably should:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3MU1oYaEKE

This video iirc isn’t a coronavirus patient and was being spread by one of the many new-minutes experts out there. This is unnecessary, and also she’s not on a ventilator. And no shit someone struggling to breathe is unpleasant viewing.

Apols if not true but it's been reported by a few news outlets too

A concequence of panic buying... please think of those at work looking after your health or other key workers who can’t get to the shops till the end of the day #COVID19 #thinkbeforeyoupick SG pic.twitter.com/INhzvCCjnt

— London Ambulance - North West London (@LAS_NorthWest) March 19, 2020

No such thing as society etc.

Really bringing out the best in people, this.

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/aberdeenshire/2087710/sacked-staff-left-homeless-after-north-hotel-orders-them-to-vacate-immediately/

Feel like this needs to be retweeted...

China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus. The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 24, 2020

18 items unavailable on my online asda order scheduled for today. lovely stuff lads

A concequence of panic buying... please think of those at work looking after your health or other key workers who can’t get to the shops till the end of the day

Whereas my town's Walmart has shortened its hours three times since this started, one of our local grocery stores has extended their hours in the evening to create a "heath care professionals only" block of time, and is putting aside some of the most-raided items to be available to them.

Half-heard an interview on NPR last night, so looked it up to confirm some details. And yep, I heard right. It was about Italy, and it ended with this little nugget:

Remuzzi says he is now hearing information about it from general practitioners. "They remember having seen very strange pneumonia, very severe, particularly in old people in December and even November," he says. "This means that the virus was circulating, at least in (the northern region of) Lombardy and before we were aware of this outbreak occurring in China."

Which would lend credence to any suspicion (like mine) that perhaps this has been around longer than people might have known, which would account for both the apparent speed and severity of the outbreak, but also perhaps indicate that more people might have unknowingly had this with no, or few, or mild or even severe symptoms and might now be hypothetically immune. Which we'll never know until they *test everyone.*

/A concequence of panic buying... please think of those at work looking after your health or other key workers who can’t get to the shops till the end of the day/

Whereas my town's Walmart has shortened its hours three times since this started, one of our local grocery stores has extended their hours in the evening to create a "heath care professionals only" block of time, and is putting aside some of the most-raided items to be available to them.

Yeah there was definitely some nasty respiratory stuff going around in December here too. My ex was sick for a month. I wonder if it was COVID.

xpost A lot of our shops are apparently exclusively open to the elderly or other at risk groups for the first hour of business.

18 items unavailable on my online asda order scheduled for today. lovely stuff lads

Gonna get some fun substitutions there I think. Possibly 17 tins of shoe polish and a copy of the spectator

Target is apparently doing an elderly/at-risk shoppers only period one day per week where you're only allowed in the store if you're in those groups

Sainsburys give you more expensive substitutions and charge you full price for them. At least Tescos charge you the same if they sub with a dearer brand. Fucking piss takers.

xps

haha turned substitutions off cos thought the risk was too high. fine (if mildly annoying) when it's 1 or 2 items being substituted but half the cart? hmmm

popped out to morrisons are lunch time to pick up the items which were unavailable. wild scenes. I am now ploughing all of my excess cash into shares in lurpak, irn-bru xtra, and penne pasta

Shit you don't want to see but everyone probably should:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3MU1oYaEKE

judging by the comments this might be a year old video about lung cancer? strange it doesn't mention current events in any way

Going to share this link so that the rest of you do NOT read it and, thus, absolutely ruin your night of sleep as I did mine:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/the-story-of-a-coronavirus-infection.html

if you're under 40 the death rate is 0.2%

"judging by the comments this might be a year old video about lung cancer? strange it doesn't mention current events in any way"

it was on the daily mail as a coronavirus patient, at this link, but we should take that rag with a grain of salt.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8131269/Fit-healthy-gym-goer-39-struggles-breathe-coronavirus.html?ito=facebook_share_article-top&fbclid=IwAR2iXYoNpLBo-vBDtAm1TcGT_ITNHDebipbGc4LsZWN0FeqKvWwwwSgmM30

xpost A lot of our shops are apparently exclusively open to the elderly or other at risk groups for the first hour of business.

― Josh in Chicago, Friday, March 20, 2020 9:31 AM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

I've heard about this and wondered how they determine who is elderly. Are they checking IDs? Just profiling based on, what, grey hair and dentures? Whats the cut-off? What if you're so elderly you literally can't leave your house and you have your not elderly-son or daughter shopping for you - do they not get in? I get the intent here but this seems like a potential clusterfuck and I foresee a lot of arguments and yelling

Going to share this link so that the rest of you do NOT read it and, thus, absolutely ruin your night of sleep as I did mine:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/the-story-of-a-coronavirus-infection.html

dunno if this sort of creative writing exercise is really helpful at the moment

xp how do you realize who is immunocompromised? I mean, it’s obviously an honor system thing and anyone who abuses it is an asshole

we’re in a situation where we have to trust each other enough to get by or just jump to martial law and I would rather do the former and ignore the few assholes who take advantage of such affordances for now

yeah that nymag article seems pretty unhelpful right now

That's putting it lightly.

if you're under 40 the death rate is 0.2%

The number of younger patients who require ICU is inordinately high, though.

i'd charitably imagine the thought behind that nymag piece was to galvanize younger reader with circumstances they can empathize with to build political will toward making tough decisions and to take this seriously but "Death By Viral Infection: You Are There" is not what the world needs right now

Choose Your Own Coronavirus Adventure

Your friend Sam says it would be a great idea to come to the little house party they're throwing tonight. You aren't sure. "Don't they say we should stay inside?" you ask. Sam is adamant. "You don't want to miss this."

If you go to the party turn to page 34. Otherwise go to page 52.

p. 34

That’s what your mind is telling itself, anyway, as the last cells of your cerebral cortex burst in starburst waves, like the glowing algae in a midnight lagoon. In the isolation ward, your EKG goes to a steady tone. The doctors take away the ventilator and give it to a patient who arrived this morning. In the official records of the COVID-19 pandemic, you’ll be recorded as victim No. 592.

The End

CDC here confirmed reporting that they first learned of the outbreak in China on January 3rd, which means that yes, covid-19 was circulating as far back as December, if not earlier.

I find it very discouraging that the worldwide death rate for "closed cases" keeps creeping up--11% right now. I don't think this has anything to do with how widespread testing is or isn't; it's just a measure of people who tested positive, and then either recovered or didn't.

627 deaths in Italy, in 24 hours. Jesus.

Up from 475 yesterday,

xps Sainsbury's are wankers in general about delivering, whenever we used them everything would have a use by date within the next 2 days, great if you buy 7 days worth of food. Even stuff that usually goes off in a month like bacon or cheese! Fuck Sainsbury's

xposts yeah I was wondering what % of young people with cov-19 need to be hospitalized, looks like it's 14-20% ... grim news.

https://medium.com/@yishan/up-to-20-of-young-people-who-get-coronavirus-could-still-die-7aefa1f84f5b

How does triage work in these circs? Are younger people prioritised as having more life to save (as I’ve seen suggested) or deprioritised as they have more strength to survive without intervention?

wait - sincere apologies - looking at the linked paper, it was 14-20% of people who had a positive test result during a time when tests where extremely scarce, so probably excludes eg the asymptomatic

there's enough to be afraid of without needlessly making it worse, I'll read much more carefully before posting again

In Northern Italy, priority is given to the young, those without comorbidities (like hypertension, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, obesity). Presumably also young children and the social contributions of the patient play a role in triage decision making.

My impression from the coverage, is that those over 60 in Bergamo were given palliative care, a bed, an saline/dextrose IV drip, and maybe morphine.