outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

Apols if not true but it's been reported by a few news outlets too

A concequence of panic buying... please think of those at work looking after your health or other key workers who can’t get to the shops till the end of the day #COVID19 #thinkbeforeyoupick SG pic.twitter.com/INhzvCCjnt

— London Ambulance - North West London (@LAS_NorthWest) March 19, 2020

No such thing as society etc.

Really bringing out the best in people, this.

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/aberdeenshire/2087710/sacked-staff-left-homeless-after-north-hotel-orders-them-to-vacate-immediately/

Feel like this needs to be retweeted...

China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus. The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 24, 2020

18 items unavailable on my online asda order scheduled for today. lovely stuff lads

A concequence of panic buying... please think of those at work looking after your health or other key workers who can’t get to the shops till the end of the day

Whereas my town's Walmart has shortened its hours three times since this started, one of our local grocery stores has extended their hours in the evening to create a "heath care professionals only" block of time, and is putting aside some of the most-raided items to be available to them.

Half-heard an interview on NPR last night, so looked it up to confirm some details. And yep, I heard right. It was about Italy, and it ended with this little nugget:

Remuzzi says he is now hearing information about it from general practitioners. "They remember having seen very strange pneumonia, very severe, particularly in old people in December and even November," he says. "This means that the virus was circulating, at least in (the northern region of) Lombardy and before we were aware of this outbreak occurring in China."

Which would lend credence to any suspicion (like mine) that perhaps this has been around longer than people might have known, which would account for both the apparent speed and severity of the outbreak, but also perhaps indicate that more people might have unknowingly had this with no, or few, or mild or even severe symptoms and might now be hypothetically immune. Which we'll never know until they *test everyone.*

/A concequence of panic buying... please think of those at work looking after your health or other key workers who can’t get to the shops till the end of the day/

Whereas my town's Walmart has shortened its hours three times since this started, one of our local grocery stores has extended their hours in the evening to create a "heath care professionals only" block of time, and is putting aside some of the most-raided items to be available to them.

Yeah there was definitely some nasty respiratory stuff going around in December here too. My ex was sick for a month. I wonder if it was COVID.

xpost A lot of our shops are apparently exclusively open to the elderly or other at risk groups for the first hour of business.

18 items unavailable on my online asda order scheduled for today. lovely stuff lads

Gonna get some fun substitutions there I think. Possibly 17 tins of shoe polish and a copy of the spectator

Target is apparently doing an elderly/at-risk shoppers only period one day per week where you're only allowed in the store if you're in those groups

Sainsburys give you more expensive substitutions and charge you full price for them. At least Tescos charge you the same if they sub with a dearer brand. Fucking piss takers.

xps

haha turned substitutions off cos thought the risk was too high. fine (if mildly annoying) when it's 1 or 2 items being substituted but half the cart? hmmm

popped out to morrisons are lunch time to pick up the items which were unavailable. wild scenes. I am now ploughing all of my excess cash into shares in lurpak, irn-bru xtra, and penne pasta

Shit you don't want to see but everyone probably should:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3MU1oYaEKE

judging by the comments this might be a year old video about lung cancer? strange it doesn't mention current events in any way

Going to share this link so that the rest of you do NOT read it and, thus, absolutely ruin your night of sleep as I did mine:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/the-story-of-a-coronavirus-infection.html

if you're under 40 the death rate is 0.2%

"judging by the comments this might be a year old video about lung cancer? strange it doesn't mention current events in any way"

it was on the daily mail as a coronavirus patient, at this link, but we should take that rag with a grain of salt.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8131269/Fit-healthy-gym-goer-39-struggles-breathe-coronavirus.html?ito=facebook_share_article-top&fbclid=IwAR2iXYoNpLBo-vBDtAm1TcGT_ITNHDebipbGc4LsZWN0FeqKvWwwwSgmM30

xpost A lot of our shops are apparently exclusively open to the elderly or other at risk groups for the first hour of business.

― Josh in Chicago, Friday, March 20, 2020 9:31 AM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

I've heard about this and wondered how they determine who is elderly. Are they checking IDs? Just profiling based on, what, grey hair and dentures? Whats the cut-off? What if you're so elderly you literally can't leave your house and you have your not elderly-son or daughter shopping for you - do they not get in? I get the intent here but this seems like a potential clusterfuck and I foresee a lot of arguments and yelling

Going to share this link so that the rest of you do NOT read it and, thus, absolutely ruin your night of sleep as I did mine:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/the-story-of-a-coronavirus-infection.html

dunno if this sort of creative writing exercise is really helpful at the moment

xp how do you realize who is immunocompromised? I mean, it’s obviously an honor system thing and anyone who abuses it is an asshole

we’re in a situation where we have to trust each other enough to get by or just jump to martial law and I would rather do the former and ignore the few assholes who take advantage of such affordances for now

yeah that nymag article seems pretty unhelpful right now

That's putting it lightly.

if you're under 40 the death rate is 0.2%

The number of younger patients who require ICU is inordinately high, though.

i'd charitably imagine the thought behind that nymag piece was to galvanize younger reader with circumstances they can empathize with to build political will toward making tough decisions and to take this seriously but "Death By Viral Infection: You Are There" is not what the world needs right now

Choose Your Own Coronavirus Adventure

Your friend Sam says it would be a great idea to come to the little house party they're throwing tonight. You aren't sure. "Don't they say we should stay inside?" you ask. Sam is adamant. "You don't want to miss this."

If you go to the party turn to page 34. Otherwise go to page 52.

p. 34

That’s what your mind is telling itself, anyway, as the last cells of your cerebral cortex burst in starburst waves, like the glowing algae in a midnight lagoon. In the isolation ward, your EKG goes to a steady tone. The doctors take away the ventilator and give it to a patient who arrived this morning. In the official records of the COVID-19 pandemic, you’ll be recorded as victim No. 592.

The End

CDC here confirmed reporting that they first learned of the outbreak in China on January 3rd, which means that yes, covid-19 was circulating as far back as December, if not earlier.

I find it very discouraging that the worldwide death rate for "closed cases" keeps creeping up--11% right now. I don't think this has anything to do with how widespread testing is or isn't; it's just a measure of people who tested positive, and then either recovered or didn't.

627 deaths in Italy, in 24 hours. Jesus.

Up from 475 yesterday,

xps Sainsbury's are wankers in general about delivering, whenever we used them everything would have a use by date within the next 2 days, great if you buy 7 days worth of food. Even stuff that usually goes off in a month like bacon or cheese! Fuck Sainsbury's

xposts yeah I was wondering what % of young people with cov-19 need to be hospitalized, looks like it's 14-20% ... grim news.

https://medium.com/@yishan/up-to-20-of-young-people-who-get-coronavirus-could-still-die-7aefa1f84f5b

How does triage work in these circs? Are younger people prioritised as having more life to save (as I’ve seen suggested) or deprioritised as they have more strength to survive without intervention?

wait - sincere apologies - looking at the linked paper, it was 14-20% of people who had a positive test result during a time when tests where extremely scarce, so probably excludes eg the asymptomatic

there's enough to be afraid of without needlessly making it worse, I'll read much more carefully before posting again

In Northern Italy, priority is given to the young, those without comorbidities (like hypertension, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, obesity). Presumably also young children and the social contributions of the patient play a role in triage decision making.

My impression from the coverage, is that those over 60 in Bergamo were given palliative care, a bed, an saline/dextrose IV drip, and maybe morphine.

This was an interesting account of an expat couple returning home to Beijing. Although it’s making me freak out about how terribly the rest of the world is now handling this.

https://onemileatatime.com/china-quarantine/

The comments at, predictably, a shit show.

the social contributions of the patient

wow that's a disquieting phrase

Just heard an interview with one of the two congressman who've tested positive. (I was in the next room, but checking ages it must have been Ben McAdams.) Sobering. Very mild symptoms at first, now he's sicker than he's ever been in his life. Talking, breathing, walking, all require a major effort. He's in his eighth day (since the test or since onset of symptoms, I'm not sure).

I've been trying to calm myself with the thought that if I do get it, it'll be a normal two-week flu that I'll get through. For him, sounds much, much worse (he even said at one point something to the effect of "if I get through this").

Not intended to disquiet, but if you're the triage doc, and you are choosing between a professor with young children and a convicted murderer for who gets the next vacated ventilator... I wouldn't be surprised if some utilitarian calculus plays a part.

lol u r baiting silby here

Fortunately I am a firefighter who is also an opera singer, and a parent of five young children

I’m a brain in a vat

what if the murderer was about to invent the vaccine

on a serious note, please stop

Triage has been the norm for the past week+ in northern Italy. Those over 60 are getting supportive care, but limited critical care (ICU/respirators) vacancies are going to patients with more years of expected lifespan. COVID-19 critical cases can spend weeks on mechanical ventilation, and nearly all who require mechanical ventilation won't make it without. It's always morally difficult.

I've searched for documentation of just how many mechanical ventilators there are in the US, and reports range widely from 35k to 90k, though 65k (20/100k population) seems most common. Emergency and intensivist docs are conjuring valve trees so that 2-4 sedated patients can breath as one off the same respirator.

My own town has poorer medical infrastructure, and fewer beds and ICU beds per capita, than average for the US (already near the bottom for OECD). We also have among the highest Covid-19 incidence per capita, and the highest case growth rate. I expect Northern Italy type triaging will start here, including at the small hospital a few blocks away. In the event that I become a critical case deeper into this, I wouldn't be surprised if I was triaged to supportive care (near 50, no children, on ACA).

am rooting for sanpaku & everyone else; let's hope nobody here has their life in the hands of decision

or nobody anywhere ideally :(

sher ill have a ferrari while yr wishing