outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

what if the murderer was about to invent the vaccine

on a serious note, please stop

Triage has been the norm for the past week+ in northern Italy. Those over 60 are getting supportive care, but limited critical care (ICU/respirators) vacancies are going to patients with more years of expected lifespan. COVID-19 critical cases can spend weeks on mechanical ventilation, and nearly all who require mechanical ventilation won't make it without. It's always morally difficult.

I've searched for documentation of just how many mechanical ventilators there are in the US, and reports range widely from 35k to 90k, though 65k (20/100k population) seems most common. Emergency and intensivist docs are conjuring valve trees so that 2-4 sedated patients can breath as one off the same respirator.

My own town has poorer medical infrastructure, and fewer beds and ICU beds per capita, than average for the US (already near the bottom for OECD). We also have among the highest Covid-19 incidence per capita, and the highest case growth rate. I expect Northern Italy type triaging will start here, including at the small hospital a few blocks away. In the event that I become a critical case deeper into this, I wouldn't be surprised if I was triaged to supportive care (near 50, no children, on ACA).

am rooting for sanpaku & everyone else; let's hope nobody here has their life in the hands of decision

or nobody anywhere ideally :(

sher ill have a ferrari while yr wishing

A friend's nurse friend in Philly, on FB:

"We have nothing, folks are donating their n95 masks to me. Hospitals don’t have enough of basic stuff, gowns, crappy masks. Soon i fear we won’t have gloves. Believe nothing the lying idiot says. We have a paltry amount of test kits, unless of course, you are a 76er, there were enough kits for the entire team and crew. I am beginning to loath humanity."

another WH shitshow:

In at least one instance this week, Vice President Mike Pence, who heads the Trump administration’s coronavirus task force, blindsided private industry by requesting that construction companies donate face masks to hospitals. The White House then failed to provide guidance when directly asked.

Pence asked builders on Tuesday to donate the N95 masks used at many construction sites to local hospitals and refrain from ordering more. Within minutes, Stephen Sandherr, chief executive officer of the trade group Associated General Contractors of America, contacted the White House for more details, said Brian Turmail, a group spokesman.

After receiving no reply from the White House, Sandherr sent an email to AGC’s local chapters on Tuesday telling them that Pence’s statement had taken the group by surprise.

https://www.propublica.org/article/white-house-coronavirus-medical-supplies-private-sector-manufacturers

re yesterday's "You know we're not a shipping clerk," let's just terminate with extreme prejudice already.

The whole N95 shortage is lamentable and was predictable. I'm still pretty surprised that no one has done the simple experiments to determine whether the low heat treatments that inactivate SARS (as in, 57 °C/133 °F for 90 min) also inactivate SARS-CoV-2 in masks, and whether this mild heating affects N95 mask protection. Have given away 3/5 of mine, that's how I plan on recycling my shopping kit.

Pence staffer now has the virus.

no way

apparently they hardly know him

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/20/politics/staffer-vice-president-office-coronavirus/index.html

Welp my wife now has severe muscle aches and shortness of breath, if only there was a way we could test her

oh god, man

Frogbs, I wish your wife all the best (and you). I’ve had a sore throat and developing cough all week and it’s probably not the corona virus but the not knowing is generating a lot of anxiety. Really it is just like any other sore throat/cough. I feel like I could be in three states

This is not the corona virus and i will get it later
This is the corona virus and I have a mild case and I’m lucky
This is the corona virus and next week is going to be hell.

Obviously the first is the most likely and in a world with a shortage of tests I should be at the back of the line when it comes to testing. But between that and the coughing I’m not sleeping a lot.

Which wasn’t what I came here to say.

Finally the Victorian government t has removed the essential services exemption that allows the casino to continue to flout social distancing rules and stay open. Hopefully is the same rule that allows them to operate the only indoor public smoking area in the state. Whilst it suck for the workers the whole things is blight and I’d much rather it burnt to the ground (along with all the pokies in pubs and clubs)

Geez--best.

(Both of you.)

yeah, frogsbs, wow. hoping this is something else.

xxp yeah we're in the same boat. she's had a sore throat on and off this week but the muscle aches and trouble breathing are a new thing, she says she feels like she has to breathe through her mouth even though she's not stuffed up or anything. the good news is she has no fever and isn't coughing, plus myself and the kids feel pretty good. I am hoping that her symptoms are just a product of the immense amount of stress and panic we've been feeling. either way I guess we will know by next week!!!

its definitely scaring me though, cuz if she gets it I'm gonna get it (er...already have it), and then the kids will probably get it, and we have full time jobs and two small (potentially sick) children to look after, and obviously we can't send anyone over to help

frogbs, if her symptoms get bad enough, the test is not the key thing, but treatment is. don't be shy about getting her to a doctor. they want you to call ahead these days, but you need to be the judge of how serious or urgent it is. good luck to both of you.

CDC here confirmed reporting that they first learned of the outbreak in China on January 3rd, which means that yes, covid-19 was circulating as far back as December, if not earlier.

SCMP reports that the first case was traced back to November 17.

A user on FluTrackers.com identified the outbreak on December 31.

thanks ET

Yeah, thanks! It bears repeating that if 80% of cases are asymptomatic or mild, and it's relatively easy to transmit, and this has been going on since Nov/Dec., then a lot of people have had this already. and once those people are identified or identify themselves, they can start getting things/life back to normal.

Here's the interview I mentioned earlier.

http://www.cnn.com/2020/03/20/politics/congressman-ben-mcadams-coronavirus-symptoms-cnntv/index.html

I have soreness tonight but that is standard for MM/post-chemo drip/sitting in my chair while remote working when I would be retired in a civilized country.

It bears repeating that if 80% of cases are asymptomatic or mild, and it's relatively easy to transmit, and this has been going on since Nov/Dec., then a lot of people have had this already. and once those people are identified or identify themselves, they can start getting things/life back to normal.

Yeah, but exponential growth means that something can be circulating for a while without a particularly noticeable number of cases and then explode. I would be wary of assuming that a lot of people have already had it.

There was a Washington Post posted a couple of hours ago that requires a subscription or that incognito Google thing.

"U.S. intelligence agencies were issuing ominous, classified warnings in January and February about the global danger posed by the coronavirus while President Trump and lawmakers played down the threat and failed to take action that might have slowed the spread of the pathogen, according to U.S. officials familiar with spy agency reporting."

Trump would obviously be the most reprehensible culprit here, but I'm sure "and lawmakers" reels in a lot of other people.

I put in another thread but N95s were sparse/gone back in January. they sat around being bitchy doing nothing.

The N95s were not bitchy. The administration was.

I would be wary of assuming that a lot of people have already had it.

Yeah, we may never know. But if it spreads fast, and the vast majority of people are either asymptomatic or show only mild symptoms, and it had been spreading for a month or even months before anyone was really looking for it, there's got to be some not insignificant number of people exposed and OK that don't know it. For sure it kept certain situations from getting worse. I'm thinking specially of that small Italian town that tested everyone and found 50%-70% had it but didn't really know it. Imagine if all those people (and health workers) *did* know it.

frogbs, best to you and your wife.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/breaking-trump-eyes-2-week-quarantine-only-drug-grocery-stores-open

No other country has been this far into the pandemic and still had the number of cases growing at the rates the U.S. is seeing.
(https://t.co/yEPNzjICd9) pic.twitter.com/QjoGl0LDgT

— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) March 20, 2020

how long did it take for Italy to start testing en masse? I'm not sure if a 1:1 comparison even works considering how long it took for us to expand testing availability, but if Italy had the same problems at this point, then that's a moot point.

yeah, definitely. there are like dozens of asterisks and caveats on all of these things. surely the lack of testing up until now is playing a role, but still, not where you want to be on the graph

Looks like the rate of new cases fell over the last couple days in the USA?


https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd

re that wolfers tweet it is also consistent with the US catching up in testing fyi

a 'smart' friend in LA just on wednesday was complaining about people overreacting and she thought I would agree. I immediately was like "No, this is going to be very very VERY bad for awhile and there is basically no realistic way to prevent it at this time." That may be a bummer but she didn't have any food in her house.

and there was this
"The nation’s second-largest municipal health system has told its staff that it is essentially abandoning hope of containing the coronavirus outbreak and instructed doctors not to bother testing symptomatic patients if a positive result won’t change how they would be treated.

The guidance, sent by the Los Angeles County Department of Health Services to its doctors on Thursday, was prompted by a crush of patients and shortage of tests, and could make it difficult to ever know precisely how many people in L.A. County contracted the virus."

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/l-a-county-gives-up-on-containing-coronavirus-tells-doctors-to-skip-testing-of-some-patients/

frogbs I wish you, your wife and kids health and well-being

My wife has started coughing, with sore throat and swollen glands. No fever yet though. Fingers crossed.

I had a horrible 9 day cough + wheezing session over the week before last and came out the other end. Did an e-visit with my HMO and they told me to suck it up, get over my cold and pick up some cough medicine from their pharmacy if I felt up to it.

That's not to diminish what anybody else is going through.

just found out a friend of mine had to fly to florida to retrieve her hubby and kids after he fucked up his achilles tendon. so I'm feeling relatively fortunate today lol

Tom, plz be well

also collardo, frogbs and all your people

Thanks morbs, you too

I'm more worried about you Morbs. Hang in there yourself.

finally some good news: bolsonaro's test is positive

― shosple colupis (bizarro gazzara), Friday, 13 March 2020 13:55 (one week ago) bookmarkflaglink

we’re back in the bolsonaro business babey

After a week of denial, Brazil's far right President Jair Bolsonaro has just announced that he thinks he might be infected with coronavirus and suggested he is going to take another test.

— BrianMier (@BrianMteleSUR) March 20, 2020