outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

I washed my keys in dish soap last week and have used ammonia-based wipes on my phone, wallet, car door hands, house door knobs, etc. I think I've wiped down my debit card, yes. I also went through C's cabinets and found bottles of rubbing alcohol, peroxide, gallons of ammonia, etc. Hm maybe I need to order some empty spray bottles from the hardware store....

Active cases: 96% in mild condition, 4% serious or critical
Closed cases: 89% recovered/discharged, 11% death

Maybe I’m looking at this wrong but to me I’d say the “closed” cases occurred earlier, when less testing was happening, so mainly just serious cases were being diagnosed, leading to a higher documented/official mortality rate. “Active” cases are more recent, and with more testing and more general awareness, more people with mild symptoms are getting tested, thus more documented mild cases and lower rate of serious/critical conditions.

don't get close to people exhibiting symptoms

If talking partners/family, sure. But out in public, assume everyone including the asymptomatic is shedding viral aerosols.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETonrLbUUAAo83p?format=png&name=medium

I went to town one day wiping every single light switch, all handles, toilet seats etc. It probably needed to be done anyway. xpost

one thing that suck about this disease is that you can't just get it and "get it over with." people have been infected, recovered, and then been reinfected

epistantophus: thank you, that does make sense.

treeship: I've seen a lot of skepticism about reinfection from credible people (I think it comes up in the Wired interview, and from Fauci too).

There is no real indication as of yet that anyone has been reinfected. There have afaict been like three cases reported, but at this point (again, correct me if I'm wrong), it's more likely to be human testing error than reinfection.

If talking partners/family, sure. But out in public, assume everyone including the asymptomatic is shedding viral aerosols.

Yeah, but what is the radius? Can you get infected just standing next to someone who is not coughing or sneezing or anything? My understanding was ... no?

1) Questioner: "Since it's novel, we’re still learning about it. Do you believe that if someone gets it and recovers, that person thereafter has immunity?"

Larry Brilliant: "So I don't see anything in this virus, even though it's novel, (that contradicts that). There are cases where people think that they've gotten it again, (but) that's more likely to be a test failure than it is an actual reinfection."

2) "I would project that once you're infected and you recover that if you get exposed to this exact virus you will not get reinfected," Fauci said.

Not definitive, but I do trust both sources.

that is reassuring, clemenza

How can you not trust Larry Brilliant

my partner is working at a testing facility in the bronx. we're holing up in a borrowed apartment otherwise, staying away from roommates and family as much as possible. it sucks.

and i am resigned, now, to the idea i will probably get it, even though i'm doing the distancing/hand-washing thing -- it's more for others.

I also, I should say, want desperately to believe that reinfection is impossible. One of the things that helps keep me calm is the idea that, if I do get it, the job is then to fight through it and I'll be in the clear. The thought that this fear would become a permanent part of life is a little too much to think about.

i mean, eventually there will be a vaccine.

if the world shifted to veganism, would this curb the risk of zoonotic infections? i've been mostly vegan recently and it's not that hard.

I really don’t think there’s any point in worrying about the death rate when the only cases being measured are those where the person has been tested and confirmed. There’s going to be a huge population of invisible people out there and the only way to know for sure is to get a testing kit into every household. Which isn’t going to happen.

I also, I should say, want desperately to believe that reinfection is impossible. One of the things that helps keep me calm is the idea that, if I do get it, the job is then to fight through it and I'll be in the clear. The thought that this fear would become a permanent part of life is a little too much to think about.

(xpost) Have you not seen Little Shop of Horrors? We're never going to be safe.

Just noting, ammonia hasn't been tested for inactivation of coronaviruses, except one study on poultry shit. This review compiles all the household and hospital disinfectants that have (> 70% ethanol or isopropyl alcohol, > 1:50 bleach dilution, 0.5% hydrogen peroxide dilution, 0.23% povidone iodine, ).

Kampf et al, 2020. Persistence of coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces and its inactivation with biocidal agents. Journal of Hospital Infection.

The package says "Kills cold and flu virus. Effective against common cold virus caused by Coronavirus and common flu virus caused by Influenza A/Hong Kong." So I guess it's possible that they kill other cold and flu viruses but not this *particular* one for some reason? But it's what we have a ton of on hand.

Can you get infected just standing next to someone who is not coughing or sneezing or anything?

Seems so. How likely? The documented cases of asymptomatic transmission involved prolonged interaction (like travelling together), and the viral titer (roughly:number of viral particles) matters to chances. On the other hand, transmission in more brief/casual encounters would be less likely caught in contact tracing.

Transmission of 2019-nCoV infection from an asymptomatic contact in Germany

A 33-year-old otherwise healthy German businessman (Patient 1) became ill with a sore throat, chills, and myalgias on January 24, 2020. The following day, a fever of 39.1°C (102.4°F) developed, along with a productive cough. By the evening of the next day, he started feeling better and went back to work on January 27.

Before the onset of symptoms, he had attended meetings with a Chinese business partner at his company near Munich on January 20 and 21. The business partner, a Shanghai resident, had visited Germany between January 19 and 22. During her stay, she had been well with no signs or symptoms of infection but had become ill on her flight back to China, where she tested positive for 2019-nCoV on January 26.

Presumed Asymptomatic Carrier Transmission of COVID-19

Patient 1 (presumed asymptomatic carrier), a 20-year-old woman, lives in Wuhan and traveled to Anyang on January 10, 2020. She initially met with patients 2 and 3 on January 10. On January 13, she accompanied 5 relatives (patients 2 through 6) to visit another hospitalized relative in Anyang District Hospital (Figure). There was no report of COVID-19 at this hospital. After development of disease in her relatives, patient 1 was isolated and observed. As of February 11, she had no elevated temperature measured or self-reported fever and no gastrointestinal or respiratory symptoms, including cough and sore throat, reported or observed by the physicians. Chest CT images on January 27 and 31 showed no significant abnormalities. Her C-reactive protein level and lymphocyte count were normal (Table). Results of RT-PCR testing were negative on January 26, positive on January 28, and negative on February 5 and 8.

Patients 2 through 6 developed COVID-19.

Clinical characteristics of 24 asymptomatic infections with COVID19 screened among close contacts in Nanjing, China

In the family of Case 13, Relative 1 (wife of Case 13) first visited the hospital (Figure 2). Relative 1, a 64-yearold otherwise healthy woman, developed fever (the highest temperature was 38.7°C), cough, fatigue and vomiting on Jan 30, 2020. Three days later (Feb 2, 2020), she visited the hospital and was tested positive for the COVID-19 virus. Then, epidemiological investigations and nucleic acid tests were conducted on her son (Relative 2), daughter-in-law (Relative 3) and Case 13. Relative 2 and 3 had developed respiratory symptoms before investigation and were demonstrated positive for the COVID-19 virus. Nucleic acid test was also positive for Case 13, but he had no symptoms during admission.

I guess my wife read something about this, and yeah, they have looked into (for example) doctors, people who had been exposed a lot but remained asymptomatic, and the more exposure you have the more of viral load you might carry (in your nose, say), and the more you carry the more you might shed. But it is unclear how easily, if it does at all, that viral load might transmit without contact or fluids or whatever. It's not like we're walking around like Pig-Pen from Peanuts.

The package says "Kills cold and flu virus. Effective against common cold virus caused by Coronavirus and common flu virus caused by Influenza A/Hong Kong."

The package of what? Thread is getting hard to follow.

it reads like you were responding to apost about ammonia, and sorry i'm not taking a bath in that

re diarrhea... so the *opposite* of what we've been reading til now?

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-digestive-symptoms-diarrhea-almost-half-of-patients/

Eh, I just glanced at that and saw "Patients with digestive symptoms had a variety of problems, including loss of appetite (nearly 84%), diarrhea (29%), vomiting (0.8%) and abdominal pain (0.4%)." So ... 29% diarrhea? Maybe?

Yes the packaged wipes that I have are ammonia-based and that’s what they say on the container. Sorry. Thread moving fast.

https://t.co/SJvnio7ZN1

— Quinn Slobodian (@zeithistoriker) March 21, 2020

Davos nails it again https://t.co/MCdcLcTHyb

— Quinn Slobodian (@zeithistoriker) March 21, 2020

Today the cough is gone so hopefully I am done with it but I'll keep as far away as I can from everyone for another week.

Glad to hear you're feeling better and props for doing the right thing.

Thank you pom.

sad lols at calzino's second tweet

BREAKING: Ground stop now in effect — all departures stopped — for JFK, LGA, EWR due to positive covid-19 tests. Other regional airspace sectors halted through key “gates” through NY air traffic areas. -Sources

— Jon Ostrower (@jonostrower) March 21, 2020

only temporary?

At 2:21 PM NY Center is beginning “a slow process” reopening. “This is a very fluid process, dynamically changing as ZNY is attempting to stabilize operations and re-staff positions,” according to A4A guidance to planners.

— Jon Ostrower (@jonostrower) March 21, 2020

positive covid-19 tests for passengers/pilots on active flights, I presume?

people who are still on cruises...what is with these people???

Are you guys watching CBS?

This is very cool. They are giving a mutual gift. It's unreal

xxpost I assumed it was shortage of flight controllers, ground crew which would impact aircraft operations.

Sounds like the issues at Chicago Midway after three tower controllers tested positive.

Italy 793 deaths in the last 24.

hours.

Watch CBS, asswipe

wut

Do we look like the type of people who watch CBS

And I saw heaven opened, and behold a white sock; and he that sat upon him was called Faithful and True, and in righteousness he doth judge and make war.

Hey everyone. Not sure if anyone will remember me, but I used to post on ILX years back, including at length on the Jenny McCarthy / autism thread.

I'm still a neurologist, in Canada (Saskatoon). We're bracing for Covid, but it hasn't hit hard here yet. I'll eventually be working in the hospitals taking care of pneumonia patients, but that's still a few weeks off. In the meantime, I've been writing online about medicine again, on our local subreddit, trying to get outside the bubble of my mostly doctor friends and reach people in the community to discuss this crisis.

It's a legitimately terrifying situation. I hope everyone is staying safe, wherever you are.

Sorry to be too emotional about it (not much sleep these days), but these boards and the people who write here have meant a lot to me. Wanted to stop by and say hello again.

I'll check in here from time to time and contribute what I can.

good luck usa

thank you Plasmon, and best to you in your work and life

we really need an alternative to "fluid process"

totally remember you! good to hear from you. Great work that you're doing.

infuriating video from Florida from a city council meeting.

the male getting the most upset is Omari Hardy, and I tend to agree with him here.

This is why the beaches haven't closed in Florida, and why they've had minimal COVID-19 prevention. Absolute dysfunction. pic.twitter.com/8x2tcQeg21

— Farbod Esnaashari (@Farbod_E) March 21, 2020

Please check in lots. Any information you have will be infinitely more reliable than trying to stitch together a thousand moving parts by the minute.