outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

^ still doesn't get it

fp xp

maybe if you'd have said what was ON CBS, just a thought.

then I could have said "no" a lot more rudely.

similar to potential Spanish flu-ish impact

Funny, she doesn't look flu-ish

borders closed in AUS and NZ? apologies if noted upthread

Funny, she doesn't look flu-ish

king

For those who like morbid toys: Steven De Keninck's Epidemic Calculator.

Plug in your favorite values for population, initial infected, Ro, CFR, Rt, lengths of incubation, infectious periods and hospital stays, and just how effective you expect a lockdown to be (Rt), and it spits out graphs of horror.

worst computer game ever

can't wait to see you on Twitch playing that xpost

Half of all coronavirus cases in New York state are in patients under 50 years old, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said as he pleaded with young people to stop socializing and to increase their social distancing. Of the state’s 10,356 cases, 54 percent were in people aged 18 to 49, Cuomo said on Saturday.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/half-of-all-coronavirus-cases-in-new-york-are-people-under-50-years-old-gov-cuomo-says?ref=home

Interesting thread on what might happen in China/world post-corona.

This is what I wrote on “Life post COVID” on my Weibo 10 days ago when most Chinese are back to work

If you want to fast forward and time travel after the quarantine period, here is what I saw pic.twitter.com/Aau0gns1Oq

— Dovey 以德服人 Wan 🪐🦖 (@DoveyWan) March 21, 2020

38-minute interview with Dr Fauci on FB is worth watching if you can tolerate somnambulant Zuckerberg

i'm always down for Fauci

.@deanbaker13's been patiently trying to explain that our system of patents could be a disastrous hindrance to discovering a coronavirus vaccine, because we need scientists sharing information. Here a Columbia University biologist makes the point for him. https://t.co/wBbMYmSCTV pic.twitter.com/AFQ9GpQnQV

— Jon Schwarz (@schwarz) March 21, 2020

Hey everyone. Not sure if anyone will remember me, but I used to post on ILX years back, including at length on the Jenny McCarthy / autism thread.

Glad you're still reading the site, Plasmon. I'll always be grateful for you calmly talking me down off the panic-ledge a few years ago when my wife had her bout with lithium toxicity.

I appreciate the participation of any and all nurses , MDs and healthcare providers on ILX.

They're mostly kinda busy right now I think.

Not plastic surgeons, let's hear from them!

good to see you, Plasmon!

Maybe we didn't need those scarce RNA extraction kits, after all.

WA, SA, NT and TAS now all requiring quarantine to interstate travellers entering. I’m sure it’s not long before interstate travel is completely prohibited except for freight. WA has gone as far to say that if you drive in you have to do your quarantine at the border which means the Eucla Roadhouse which is a desolate spot to stay banged up for 2 week.

Non essential domestic travel is banned in the other states and that might not last till tomorrow the rate things are going. As ever the states are way ahead of Scotty from Marketing on this.

Been listening to the BBC World Service, where a witness in Italy says younger people get it and it often takes the form of bad pneumonialike symptoms. So youth is not a shield, as other numbers are starting to show.

via HOOS

Not sure we've communicated well enough that social distancing interventions will pay dividends in 1-3 weeks. Anything that happens in the next 10 days was already baked in prior to that. A surge in cases now would NOT mean that social distancing isn't working.

— Kate Allen (@katecallen) March 20, 2020

Australia may run out of shit beer brewed by a company that shafts its workers.

Carlton and United Breweries are worried about brewery jobs and beer supplies. ⁦@abcmelbourne⁩ pic.twitter.com/69gJxiWQvb

— Richard Willingham (@rwillingham) March 22, 2020

I mentioned upthread that my country Malaysia went into partial lockdown a few days ago, shortly after a huge outbreak was reported from one mass gathering.

We're into our fifth day now and this graph basically shows what happens when an entire country stays at home:

Bila 🇲🇾 duduk dalam rumah.#KitaBoleh pic.twitter.com/UnVHUJNugE

— Beni Rusani (@DrBeniRusani) March 22, 2020

Good lord, that earthquake in Zagreb. Thousands of people forced out of their homes at the worst possible time.

Hello Plasmon! Always been a fan, don’t be a stranger.

^ Plasmon's posts on the Jenny McCarthy thread were the source of a considerable area of development of learning and understanding for me – sent me to Ian Hacking's Mad Travellers as well as his very good stuff on the DSM etc.

Very welcome to see you back, especially at this time: please do post when you can and good luck!

NY Times email blast lede is "1 in 4 Americans is being told to stay home." Why the hell it isn't 4/4 I don't know.

It's hard to keep all these threads apart, but I recall seeing here, there or somewhere that the key data to look for is not a reduction in the number of new cases, necessarily, but a reduction in the number of deaths to doubling only ("only") every three days or more, iirc. That is to say, in places like, say, America, there is every reason to believe that the number of cases will ramp up and stay up as testing increases, so number of cases is not a really helpful metric, at least at first, since a lot of those cases could be mild or manageable.

Speaking of which, I did see a post about NYC specifically, and breakdown of cases was totally consistent with the stats ratios reported elsewhere. I can't find it right now, but it was something like (and this is all rounded): 8000 cases, 1400 of those requiring hospital, 300 of those requiring ICU, and 60 of those leading to deaths.

And as far as light at the end of the tunnel, just saw a post from someone in Chicago who knows three confirmed cases, and all three (one 8 months pregnant) are already past the "feeling terrible" stage and recovering well.

yes, welcome back Plasmon, hope you and yours are staying well

also did I see long-ago ilxor RickyT on one of these threads? all the best to RickyT also

Sure remember you Plasmon, welcome back!

NY Times email blast lede is "1 in 4 Americans is being told to stay home." Why the hell it isn't 4/4 I don't know.

― brooklyn suicide cult (Dr Morbius), Sunday, March 22, 2020 9:16 AM

I could walk out my front door right now or any other given Sunday, walk a mile in either direction, and not come within 20 feet of another human.

welcome!

I have been seeing too that we need to change the term 'social distancing' to 'physical distancing' because people are just not getting it.

I could walk out my front door right now or any other given Sunday, walk a mile in either direction, and not come within 20 feet of another human.

yes, but you should also be yelling "stay at home!" to the houses that you pass on your walk. it's being reported that 3 in 4 americans haven't been told to do so yet

the key data to look for is not a reduction in the number of new cases, necessarily, but a reduction in the number of deaths to doubling only ("only") every three days or more

I've been fixated on worldometer's percentage of closed-case deaths--which keeps creeping up, and is now at 12%--but will keep that in mind.

I could walk out my front door right now or any other given Sunday, walk a mile in either direction, and not come within 20 feet of another human.

Lucky you. Try living in Islington.

I think it is literally impossible, during daylight hours, to walk down Seven Sisters Road and be 6 feet away from someone.

You need pavements designed for walking more than two abreast (if they're even that wide) for a start.

yeah, I am watching a Cuomo (NY governor) presser for the first time and he's pissed about people in nyc still congregating.

xp just make them all one-way and confine slow walkers to one road

they are likely turning the NYU dorms into covid hospitals.

the key data to look for is not a reduction in the number of new cases, necessarily, but a reduction in the number of deaths to doubling only ("only") every three days or more

i was mentioning that upthread so i think you might be referring to it. just to clarify - the doubling every 3 days thing isn't a sign of success/failure in itself. i was just citing it as an indicator, a way to compare the situations of different countries/regions. in general, though, looking at doubling rates (rather than absolute numbers) is the better way to track it. for example, look at the charts on this reuters story from a couple days ago, which uses a 6-day doubling rate as a means of comparison:

https://i.imgur.com/tyz2Me9.jpg

So once we get over Covid 19 how ready would anybody be for the next whatever.
Is this going to be like multi hundred year storms were a couple of years ago.

& is there any possibility of getting prepared for another not fully expected widespread disease.
Like is anything being done now getting people ready for further development or is it just depleting necessary stocks.

& on that light note.
Hope this is a short term thing relatively like.

I don't know if anyone knows/reads the Above the Law news site (it has Elie Mystal writing a lot for it) but the creator was just put on a on a ventilator from covid after being in the hospital for I think almost a week? He's 44, runs marathons and only has exercised induced asthma as an underlying health problem. It really really sucks.

Lucky you. Try living in Islington.

Just saying why it's not 4/4 Americans being asked to shelter in place. Believe me, I'm not boasting about my lucky status living where I do.

I remember seeing that guy’s twitter thread about what it was like to have covid 19 a week(?) ago, he was saying it was taking him an hour to eat his breakfast as he just didn’t have the energy and everything was a struggle. Yikes that he’s got even worse since, not what this non-marathon running asthmatic wanted to hear

I just looked up the thread and it was 4 days ago, the days are passing slowly

they are likely turning the NYU dorms into covid hospitals

saw a saucy tweet: "I refuse to die at NYU"

number of tested and confirmed cases in my state went from 45 to 90 over two days so... the rate of spread is making me anxious