outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

I'm reminded of Perfect Sense.

New Zealand has gone to Level 3:

Level 3 Restrict
Heightened risk that disease is not contained.

Risk assessment

Community transmission occurring OR
Multiple clusters break out

Range of measures (can be applied locally or nationally)

Travel in areas with clusters or community transmission limited
Affected educational facilities closed
Mass gatherings cancelled
Public venues closed (e.g. libraries, museums, cinemas, food courts, gyms, pools, amusement parks)
Alternative ways of working required and some non-essential businesses should close
Non face-to-face primary care consultations
Non acute (elective) services and procedures in hospitals deferred and healthcare staff reprioritised

and is going to Level 4 in 48 hours:

Level 4 Eliminate
Likely that disease is not contained.

Risk assessment

Sustained and intensive transmission
Widespread outbreaks

Range of measures (can be applied locally or nationally)

People instructed to stay at home
Educational facilities closed
Businesses closed except for essential services (e.g. supermarkets, pharmacies, clinics) and lifeline utilities
Rationing of supplies and requisitioning of facilities
Travel severely limited
Major reprioritisation of healthcare services

Have we posted this interview with Fauci yet?

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/i-m-going-keep-pushing-anthony-fauci-tries-make-white-house-listen-facts-pandemic

Q: How are you managing to not get fired?

A: Well, that's pretty interesting because to his (President Trump’s) credit, even though we disagree on some things, he listens. He goes his own way. He has his own style. But on substantive issues, he does listen to what I say.

...

Q: Most everyone thinks that you’re doing a remarkable job, but you're standing there as the representative of truth and facts but things are being said that aren't true and aren't factual.

A: The way it happened is that after he made that statement (suggesting China could have revealed the discovery of a new coronavirus three to four months earlier), I told the appropriate people, it doesn't comport, because two or three months earlier would have been September. The next time they sit down with him and talk about what he’s going to say, they will say, by the way, Mr. President, be careful about this and don't say that. But I can't jump in front of the microphone and push him down. OK, he said it. Let's try and get it corrected for the next time.

^ Shows that Fauci has the most basic political skills required to remain in the job under a Trump administration: be valuable and be extremely careful not to make Trump look bad -- because looking bad is Trump's job, not yours.

I told the appropriate people

i.e. he never contradicts Trump to his face, but uses intermediaries as buffers. Smart man.

he'll probably get fired for doing that interview

replacement Harold Bornstein

Weirdly in Australia, we have 1675 confirmed cases and only 20 people have needed ICU treatment. Not sure what to make of that, tbh.

https://www.health.gov.au/news/australian-health-protection-principal-committee-ahppc-coronavirus-covid-19-statement-on-22-march-2020

*guillotine building intensifies* https://t.co/1FORB6SqiA

— Karl Barx (@JohnMcMarx) March 23, 2020

omg

We (Australia) are testing a lot, even if testing is nowhere near universal. A lot more than many other countries, at least. Bigger population of cases detected so more mild cases detected. Although it is still a little surprising given the number of olds who travel, go on cruises and the like.

Xpsot

how much clinical research is there on the effect of vegemite on covid-19

Orban taking advantage and going for his proper dictatorship I see.

Weirdly in Australia, we have 1675 confirmed cases and only 20 people have needed ICU treatment. Not sure what to make of that, tbh.

https://www.health.gov.au/news/australian-health-protection-principal-committee-ahppc-coronavirus-covid-19-statement-on-22-march-2020🕸

At least a week behind. See the Bondi example, my neighbours had people over yesterday. It doesn’t help that the federal government and states are sending out contrary and confusing messages. States want to go more severe earlier and the feds seem more interested in keeping the economy going, even though a total shutdown might be cheaper. Per the Grattan Institute, who are generally in the progressive side of things.

I think it is hitting home today. Massive queues outside centrelink, the government website crashing due to Th w sheer weight of traffic of people looking for help.

First dog explains it pretty well. Scotty from marketing has done a piss poor job of communicating the severity of the situation, it isn’t trump or Bojo/Cummings bad but the fact that he tried to reassure the nation by announcing he was going to the footy was moronic.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/23/the-country-is-being-run-by-a-marketing-manager-who-cant-get-the-message-out-dont-go-out

If the testing is more widespread then the ratio of serious cases will almost certainly be lower. TBH even though Australia is a week behind those numbers are reassuring because over here we have absolutely no handle on how many mild or invisible cases there are.

On the other hand that reassurance might prompt people to go out and take unnecessary risks and make things worse.

We’re the lucky country, she’ll be right.

Germany's infection curve could be flattening off, public health chief says
Monday, 23 Mar 2020

(Reuters) - There are signs that the exponential upwards curve in new coronavirus infections in Germany is flattening off for the first time thanks to social distancing measures in force, the head of the country's public health institute said on Monday.

"We are seeing signs that the exponential growth curve is flattening off slightly," said Lothar Wieler, head of the Robert Koch Institute. "But I will only be able to confirm this trend definitively on Wednesday."

He said he was optimistic that measures taken so far in Germany, including school closures, instructions on hand-washing and strict warnings against public gatherings, were already having an effect.

The thing that worries me the most about this is that, with the possible exception of Iran, the countries that have experienced the worst outbreaks have been some of the richest with the greatest number of policy options, including economically. Even Iran is a regional power with oil wealth etc.

What happens when this really takes hold in some African nations or other countries without the ability to enforce social distancing or the ability to just spray cash everywhere?

No one will allow people from those countries in. We'll live in a very fractured world for a long time and I reckon it will exacerbate the divide between rich/poor and the inexorable racism that goes with it.

Doesn't bear thinking about tbh.

Yeah I had that thought and got very worried. Also wondering about the real situation in dprk

or like..... zimbabwe. somalia. eritrea. libya.

My colleagues in India are extremely worried.

Worth noting in passing that Grenada and Mozambique both recorded their first cases yesterday, and both were travellers from the UK.

#banthebrits

the sun never sets on the virus empire

Entirely speculative speculation as to why infections in Australia are so low

Vegemite
It’s summer
The UV IS FUCKING CRAZY
Tim Tams
Vegemite

i have 4 jars of marmite so I am set then.

I don't think anyone will be able to go over an international border for a long time without some kind of reliable certificate of immunity from coronavirus, whether that's from a vaccine or something else.

Like a yellow fever certificate.

I do wonder why australian hasn’t been more badly hit. We have a lot of business tourist and students travel with China and even had a direct flight from Wuhan to the Gold Coast. Is it because the Australian tourist trail is so outdoors (opera house, harbour bridge puffing billy, penguins, beach, taronga zoo, wineries) that the UV has killed a lot of virus, but what about restaurants and people cleaning hotel rooms and tour busses.

Similar thing happened in Armenia. Some dumb rich woman *had* to fly to Milan in the middle of an epidemic to get a couture wedding dress for a wedding, then attend said wedding despite not feeling well.

— Captain Person (@captainperson) March 22, 2020

in italy 74% of those infected are aged over 50.

in nsw so far 40% of the infected are over 50, and only 25% are aged over 60.

sources are health nsw and statista.com for italy.

my wife and i are currently waiting for her test results so she can go back to work.

shes a dialysis nurse and if the virus goes through her clinic it will kill. and dialysis isnt elective; patients cant choose to stay home, infectious or not.

Good luck to you and your wife.

Perhaps not a miracle drug.

http://www.cnn.com/2020/03/23/africa/chloroquine-trump-nigeria-intl/index.html

I am glad José Andres is requesting the equivalent of what they are trying to give the airlines (so he has the funds to mobilize and provide food for the vulnerable during this time).

It would also employ restaurant workers.

Many of the countries with the most cases took a dip in daily cases yesterday. (I won't list them--I was clicking one by one on the worldometer site.) I'm wondering, though, if that's because there's less reporting on a Sunday.

So is this thing just asymptomatic in the vast majority of under-50 cases? There are a few horrible outliers like the 18 year old that died, and obviously some people in their 30s and 40s are experiencing horrible things but in general it seems we can't possibly get a handle on this without widespread, perhaps universal testing.

Afaict last I saw reported it's asymptomatic in 20-30% of cases, and mild in 80% of cases, period, but maybe more likely to be so the younger you are.

xposting, Australia might just be running behind, but on the other hand, it's a big, mostly empty country, and an island, too, like the U.S., so that gives it some advantages. But re: "1675 confirmed cases and only 20 people have needed ICU treatment," that seems generally in line with the way it plays out, barring complications. Most people get it and have few or mild symptoms. Of the remaining, some have more dramatic symptoms, a smaller number need to go to hospital, an even smaller number needs to go the ICU, and the smallest number don't make it.

80% of laboratory-confirmed cases were mild to moderate, 14% were severe, and 6% were critical. Just to be clear, a mild case of COVID-19 is not like a mild cold. The symptoms will still be pretty severe. Anything less than needing oxygen puts you in this category. Severe cases do need supplemental oxygen, and critical ones are defined by respiratory or multi-organ failure.

According to this article you can get pneumonia and be considered a moderate case

My bestie definitely has pneumatic symptoms even if not quite full blown pneumonia. Has also had low grade fever between 98.8 to 100 for six days

xp yes thats the apparent state of things here.

severe pneumonia/difficulty breathing, we might send the ambulance around.

up to then, self medicate and keep us posted

i dont think its that the beds/equipment/staff arent there, its that they really want to embed that attitude in people now in anticipation of next week or whatever

NYC: close friend was in the emergency room on Saturday night/Sunday morning with shortness of breath, coughing, high fever for about a week. They did not test her, told her to presume it was covid and sent her home to self quarantine. She has pneumonia in her lungs but says she's feeling better today than she has in days. Her husband has a sore throat but is otherwise asymptomatic, though he is a fairly recent liver/pancreas recipient and on immunosuppressant drugs and has to self quarantine with her.

she's on antibiotics and trying to work from home as of Monday. she passed out in the ER on Saturday night.

wishing her well

Curve said to be flattening somewhat in Germany. (insert good at following orders joek)

It's truly surreal to see all of these progressive people essentially arguing for a police state, federal restrictions on gatherings & freedom of movement, etc

sometimes core ideologies have to be flexible in dramatic times. something that works for good times doesn't necessarily work for pandemic or war.

every ideology harbors the seeds of fascism

but yes less dramatically of course there should be restrictions on freedom of movement rn it's a deadly easily-transmissible pandemic