outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

apparently the brokerages are making sure their outsourced back offices there are allowed to go to work lol

The last 2 days have been sobering after showing some promise over the weekend:

https://i.imgur.com/vwdP6Wa.png

less reporting on the weekends innit

I could see how after Mar 21, a politician might be able to draw some conclusions that distancing has begun flattening the mortality curve and that hope/relief was on the way, but the acceleration back to exponential death rates is a bit unnerving.

this is why i'm not too concerned about trump rolling back isolation in just a week. since it will take at least 2 weeks for any flattening to show in the figures that would require him to reopen restaurants when the death toll is at its highest and seemingly in exponential incline

that should buy us 2 more weeks i think -- at that pt we'll reevaluate and hopefully should have more masks, more/better testing, better prepared/equipped hospitals etc so even if we do relax measures it won't be as costly as doing so in a week.

^ I could see that happening.

As with so many other things that he doesn’t know about, it’s kinda disturbing that such a successful businessman doesn’t understand exponential growth, but I’m not surprised

define 'lockdown' imo

i.e. london is supposedly in 'lockdown' but the Tube is packed and people are copulating in front of B&Q using coronavirus for lubricant

― Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Tuesday, March 24, 2020 10:26 AM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

“There will be a total ban of coming out of your homes,” Mr. Modi said.

“Every district, every lane, every village will be under lockdown,” he said. “If you can’t handle these 21 days, this country will go back 21 years.”

“The only option is social distancing, to remain away from each other,” he said. “There is no way out to escape from coronavirus besides this.”

Left unclear was how Indians would be able to get food and other needed supplies. Mr. Modi alluded vaguely to the government and civil society groups stepping in to help, but offered no details.

“If you can’t handle these 21 days, this country will go back 21 years.”

this is a good line for prominent sane ppl in the U.S. to start parroting right now

what if all this is a prequel to a time travel event to 21 years ago

if they time the warp right, it would go back to...just before Y2K

I'll take it

is modi threatening india with partying like it’s 1999

man can't we relive some better 20 year period

If India's reporting was remotely accurate (atm: 519 cases, 10 deaths), at this stage the SK/HK/SG approach of aggressive testing, contact tracing, quarantine of individuals, and encouraging hygiene/physical distancing would seem to make a lot more sense. India is adeveloping nation, but it does have substantial biotech and healthcare resources to do this sort of mobilization. And any country will need to do this for a year + to guard against imported cases and new clusters, in any case.

What I infer from Modi's lockdown is that India's situation is much worse than they've reported.

indeed the late 90s seem like some kind of amusement park now, though to enjoy it we'd need to have knowledge of the impending doom erased

oops out of time

“If you can’t handle these 21 days, this country will go back 21 years.”

this is a good line for prominent sane ppl in the U.S. to start parroting right now

― Webcam Du Bois (Hadrian VIII), Tuesday, March 24, 2020 12:46 PM (nine minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

what if all this is a prequel to a time travel event to 21 years ago

and then during the prequel part (which we're doomed to repeat forever(?)) there's a montage of a bunch of smart people and thomas friedman talking about globalization and growing interconnectivity of the world, but they didn't realize how literally that was true. India goes back 25 years, but as it slips down the time-space continuum it pulls in Pakistan as well, and then afghanistan, iran, etc. so all of asia and africa and europe get pulled through within a few minutes of the event.

BUT THEN when the warp hits the edges of the continents, it stops. so iceland isn't affected, or australia or japan, or NA and SA. but THEN in the alternate 1999, the inverse is true, with the other continents gone missing.

Someone should point out the logical flaw in my thinking if it's wrong, but I don't find any comfort in the idea that "the death rate may be lower than we think because we are not capturing all of the cases due to lack of testing." The only thing that matters to me is the raw numbers of severe cases and deaths, those numbers in comparison to the overall population, and those numbers in comparison to hospital beds. If (making up numbers for argument sake) 75% of the US gets coronavirus, but a third of that 75% never show any symptoms whatsoever, and another third present mild cold symptoms, and another third present more serious symptoms (anything from flu-like to death) that's a quarter of the US population with a relatively serious illness. If 10% of those require hospitalization, that's 2.5% of the US population requiring hospitalization. If 20% of those die, that's .5% of the US population dying, i.e. more than 1.5 million deaths.

These numbers may be wrong, but it just illustrates the problem with the "oh most people never even know they have it" security blanket.

otm. cuomo laid this out very well today i thought.

Going back 21 years would probably be a 30 or 40 year positive for the UK post Brexit

This was a fun way to kill a minute:

covidnearyou.org

Confirmed case on Easter Island.

“I would love to have the country opened up and raring to go by Easter,” Trump said during a Fox News town hall broadcast from the Rose Garden at the White House.

So close!

this is a good line for prominent sane ppl in the U.S. to start parroting right now

― Webcam Du Bois (Hadrian VIII), Tuesday, March 24, 2020 10:46 AM (thirty-two minutes ago)

nobody should be parroting any lines ginned up by Narendra fuckin Modi

ffs

he's probably figuring out how to use this as an excuse for starving several million muslims to death

yeah the easter island case isn't traceable either.

just not really sure how this is all going to end really. talk of reopening countries and drifting back towards normality seems fanciful, whatever date you plug in: may? june? july? august? all seem unlikely. then we're starting the descent back towards winter and presumably another worldwide spike

silby jeez I didn't say *credit* him

I mean let these people imagine their precious dow jones index at @2,000 e.g.

Yeah how do you prevent a new epidemic just ripping through a country or a region, even if its abated somewhere else?

Sorry I know I just. Yeah.

you....learn from the last one?

Hadn’t realised quite how relaxed Sweden was being on this. Much like the UK’s first, abandoned/belatedly accelerated plan https://www.thelocal.se/20200324/while-most-of-europe-is-in-lockdown-sweden-is-going-its-own-way

Boo hoo

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/nra-to-cut-salaries-brace-for-layoffs-as-coronavirus-disrupts-fundraising-internal-memo-states/2020/03/24/4a7d47ac-6d63-11ea-96a0-df4c5d9284af_story.html

Thoughts, prayers.

heh

you....learn from the last one?

Good luck with that. Without widespread testing we could be seeing major cities moving in and out of lockdown for 18 months. Maybe it's better not to maintain the pretence of going back to normality in the first place.

xp Matt DC:

Mostly travel restrictions.

Israel was first to call for a 14-day quarantine of all incoming travelers, including its own citizens. Visitors have to provide proof that they have a 14-day reservation at a hotel and means of paying before they can board inbound flights. That sort of siege mentality for all travelers has its merits, as so many transit through third nations. Some other countries have followed suit with the same policy.

There won't be short-term business, artist touring, family or leisure travel for quite a while, perhaps until a vaccine or effective treatment is available. International travel will be as time-consuming as centuries past.

And if this does become endemic in some countries (cough, the US) those sort of travel restrictions may extend well past the period of medical crisis. Its an order of magnitude worse for airlines than 9/11. None of those 737 Max planes will be needed.

Man, that first destination vacation is going to feel so good ... in 2027.

None of those 737 Max planes will be needed.

fsck getting on one of them anyhow

Thinking now about countries entirely dependent on destination tourism. Maldives, Aruba, Seychelles... Rough times ahead, and I can see how their leaders might be entertaining the "lets go endemic and get this over with" plan...

Many of the aforementioned are practically underwater now anyway, aren't they? Like, literally?

Holland America Cruise Sailing for Florida Has 87 Flu-Like Cases

Passengers, all with less than sound judgement, embarked in San Antonio, Chile 21 Mar and had a port of call in Coquimbo, Chile on 22 Mar. Seems they'll be missing shore excursions and jewelry/cigar/tourist crap shopping in Ecuador, Honduras, Panama, Aruba, and the Bahamas.

Is this the fourth, or fifth, cruise ship with an outbreak?

We’ve had more than that in Australia alone.

JH Christ, the Zaandam makes it 15 plague ships.

That list doesn’t appear to include the Costa Favolosa, responsible for 43 of Trinidad’s 57 cases.

.@GovAndyBeshear says that one person in Kentucky has tested positive after attending a coronavirus party

— Ben Tobin (@TobinBen) March 24, 2020

Congratulations?

wtf is a coronavirus party?