outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

NYC morgues expected to reach capacity next week

morgues in spain are already at capacity.

which means the morgues here are going to be at capacity in a couple weeks.

The US is now on pace to have the worst coronavirus outbreak anywhere... pic.twitter.com/GgtcF4788J

— Mark MacKinnon (@markmackinnon) March 25, 2020

counterpoint: we should be fine by easter, a perfect day

counterpoint: no we are the best

I've been thinking about that a lot this week, the combo of our stupid healthcare system + a stubborn population that refuses to disrupt their lives + a ruling party that does not take this seriously & values stock market numbers over human lives seems like the perfect breeding ground for this virus and I think there's a chance that the US gets decimated by it in a way that even Italy & Spain won't - not just 'worse' but 'exponentially worse'. Really hope I'm wrong though.

I have heard we have the strongest, most american version of the virus. More powerful than other countries.

I've been working from home for three weeks and will be doing so for at least 11 more, if a critical mass of people get it into their heads that shit isn't going back to normal anytime soon we have a fighting chance!

Positive coronavirus news: total new daily infections & deaths declined in Italy for a second straight day. https://t.co/VPMbzvY8uk

— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) March 23, 2020

xps finally a proof of the real American exceptionalism

Sorry old link

BREAKING: Better news from Italy, although it's hard to call 683 new deaths in a day better news. But that is down from y'day (tho' still the 3rd highest daily total). And new infections are down for the 4th day running at 3,491. Total deaths break another barrier - at 7,503.

— Bill Neely (@BillNeelyNBC) March 25, 2020

Don't panic you are ok. You are not gonna die. You can make it without stressing the medical systems. Just breathe. You are going to be ok. You can make it through without jumping in the frying pan. You are fine. All the vaccines you ve already had is enough to see you through.

— M.I.A (@MIAuniverse) March 25, 2020

i was kind of worried about coronavirus, but then i saw this tweet by mia and

that seems like... bad advice

other vaccines are kind of the mercenary/posse/militias of the viral world - they're not quite as effective as the real thing, but definitely still help. in this case, since we all have so many other vaccinations (read: "private militias"), we can still overwhelm coronavirus with pure numerical advantage! please buy my new hit single

I volunteered to go into the hospital I work for today and hand out donated food to the staff. We tried to be ad socially distant as possible and everyone was so lovely and grateful.

That’s awesome.

Meanwhile, it’s grim down south

Dit is een heel grimmig beeld van de situatie in Spanje https://t.co/MzsqI0hnMu pic.twitter.com/Dm4Vb2U5PK

— Job de Wit (@JobdeWit) March 25, 2020

Tokyo is going into lockdown but only a the weekend and only if people feel like it.

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200325/p2g/00m/0na/132000c

NYT:

As the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in New York continued to grow — reaching more than 30,000 — Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said on Wednesday that there were early signs that the state’s stringent restrictions on social gatherings could be slowing the virus’s spread.

In a briefing on Wednesday, Mr. Cuomo said there were indications that social distancing measures put in place in New York appeared to be helping — but that more needed to be done. “The evidence suggests that the density control measures may be working,” he said.

On Sunday, for example, the state’s projections showed hospitalizations doubling every two days. By Tuesday, the estimates showed hospitalizations doubling every 4.7 days, he said — adding the caveat that such a projection was “almost too good to be true.”

He cited encouraging news from Westchester County, where the rate of infection has slowed. “We have dramatically slowed what was an exponential rate of increase,” Mr. Cuomo said. “That was the hottest cluster in the United States of America. We closed the schools, we closed gatherings, we brought in testing, and we have dramatically slowed the increase.”

New York State, which has tested more people than any other state, now has 30,811 confirmed cases, an increase of more than 5,000 since Tuesday morning. New York City has 17,856 confirmed cases.

But Mr. Cuomo said that more needed to be done, particularly to make it easier to maintain social distancing in New York City, the most densely populated major city in the United States....

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/world/coronavirus-updates-maps-usa-world.html

Koike said Monday that like other major cities in the world, Tokyo could go into lockdown if WHEN all steps fail to slow the spread of the virus.

ireland have redesigned the conditions required in order for you to qualify for testing, you now need to be verified as displaying two symptoms (fever + one from coughing/shortness of breath)

seems a sensible step given limited tests and long delays for testing/results, at a certain stage confirming people have this is useless and you move to focus on who needs triaging into hospital/ICU

Yeah, my sister has had to reapply after applying last week - by the time they get the test it'll be useless though.

daughter-in-law's 20-year-old niece is in critical ICU with double pneumonia and probably has this :(

Wishing her the best!

thanks, AF

damn, good luck to her

Good luck to her.

oh no sleeve, i wish her a swift recovery

fingers crossed sleeve

Some good news in Italy - ventilators hacked together from scuba gear, following on from a project to repair broken ventilators.

https://dgiluz.wordpress.com/2020/03/23/its-working/

And here’s the whole toolkit on how to do it

https://www.isinnova.it/easy-covid19-eng/

social distancing is currently *not* happening in my clinic (where we're doing telehealth) and it's realllly starting to bug me out

is there an armchair epidemiologist here who can attempt to explain infective probability relative to the number of transmitted virions?

i.e. if one were to inhale a thousand virions as opposed to a hundred (or in whatever volume they ordinarily transmit) is one then theoretically 10x more vulnerable?

the grim statistic i want to know is how many ppl have gotten it *despite* practicing social isolation (like, say, limited to going to the store or w/e)

xp or: is there a certain threshold of "trace" bacteria beneath which infection is unlikely?

I honestly think most people probably have it at this point. I brought up the loss of taste/smell thing and apparently one of my co-workers hasn’t been able to smell or taste anything for three weeks but has no other symptoms. Now let’s just pretend she def has it - that would be three weeks of commuting, working, etc. how many people could you already have transmitted it to??

it's definitely not "most people"

Ok maybe not most but I think whole lot more than people realize. I think they will find that there’s a high percentage of carriers who are symptomatic or have symptoms that they don’t realizes are COVID related. This now makes three people I know who have completely lost their ability to smell and taste over the past month.

the grim statistic i want to know is how many ppl have gotten it *despite* practicing social isolation

When you find out let us know, too, will ya?

counterpoint: we should be fine by easter, a perfect day

― Karl Malone, Wednesday, March 25, 2020 5:18 PM (five hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

counterpoint: no we are the best

― Karl Malone, Wednesday, March 25, 2020 5:18 PM (five hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

def going to be interesting to see how don spins things if this is the trajectory, because he's always "all about the numbers"

probably going to say that the reduced price of oil is all his doing

xp I was going to say "let us know too, will ya, but if it's a scary big number then write it in code somewhere where I don't have to scare myself"

but I guess if it's that high a number at least we can all just go to the damn shop and stop taking circuitous routes all over the place looking nervously round every corner

best wishes to your family sleeve

Brilliant ENBB!

oh, yes, sorry - good luck to your family, sleeve

and stay safe, ENBB

thx all and no worries if you missed it b4 posting, thread moves fast. I have never met the niece but the family is wonderful and they are very concerned. another stark reminder that youth does not confer immunity.

yes, and that not everything merely short of dying is a picnic for anyone contracting it

that's what plays on my mind as a historical pneumoniac

update!

Apparently her test came back negative for Covid-19 🙏 However she is exhibiting all of the symptoms and the tests are supposedly not 100% accurate. Either way, she is not out of the woods yet. She is on a ventilator and the doctors are hoping she will begin to make progress with that and other treatments. She’s fighting. Thank you all for your love and positive energy

wishing all good things