Joe Biden, Senator from Citibank (oops, DELAWARE), to Run for President

That's pretty much where I'm at.

Krystal Ball is interviewing her today apparently

I find it so despairing that this is what people take from this. A very serious allegation about sexual assault, and the main thing is if it will own the libs.

We're still figuring out the rules of the post #MeToo age, and I think this should help establish a very serious one: Don't spread allegations of sexual assault you aren't willing to stand behind.

It's not about "owning the libs" for me, it's about how awful and poisoned the discourse around it is so obviously going to be (if it even gets traction)

I really don't think anyone should ever spend time on these things if they aren't willing to take a stand on the veracity of the allegation.

I don’t believe it’s the libs who are going to get “owned”. At least not in the near term. This will pass without much fanfare. Biden will be the nominee (if he doesn’t die), and he will shit the bed in the general in a spectacular, historical fashion.

That stand might be 'we'll never know', but that's still a stand. And not the one I am at right now, to be honest.

I don't have any more info than the avg reader

is there a pattern of Biden behavior that fits? seems so.

I want him gone for his many crimes, we could add this to the pile

It's completely different from the other allegations, so no, it doesn't fit the pattern at all

The main reason I find it hard to believe is that it's the second story Tara Reade has told about Biden, it's completely different than the first one, and she is now saying she was adjusting the first story make it more believable among the other allegations. But that this is the one that is true. That gives me pause a lot.

If an accuser admits to having told a not-entirely-true story about the accused once, I really don't automatically believe them the second time.

And I don't think that is anti-feminist

Fred, who do you think is most likely for Biden's running mate and/or replacement should anything go wrong?

Regardless of its veracity, this is the least surprising thing ever.

I have no idea who will be his running mate. Who are the frontrunners, Stacey Abrams or Tammy Baldwin?

Biden Wasserman Schultz 2020

the fact that he is the nominee is very unfortunate for many reasons. pete buttigieg would have been preferable.

2008 Biden Hologram 2020

yeah he was my least favorite in that field, next to Bloomberg I guess

He’s not the nominee yet ffs

he is not the nominee, and stranger things have happened

xp

(cue Soto handwaving)

I have a slight optimistic hope that he will do extra well among conservative shitheads, but that's all I've got. Oh yeah, he might die in office, guess that's positive too? Saw someone on twitter say he wasn't in the top ten of the field, and that's where I am as well.

he's not going to get many votes from self-identifying conservatives.

the best bet is that he remains a cipher -- a generic dem representing a "return to normalcy" -- and that this is enough to push him over the top.

literally: "push"

the one argument for Biden as opposed to Bernie is that if he gets into office most people can go on with their lives without having to think about politics all the time, which is something that you probably would not get with Sanders. I realize this is a poor and selfish argument but I feel like this is what a lot of his supporters are thinking. They just want politics out of their lives.

fwiw I do trust 538's forecast that Biden is 99% likely to win it but if there was a blue moon type event that could push the longshot over the top, I think we're living it right now

if he gets into office most people can go on with their lives without having to think about politics all the time

or as Dennis Perrin says, "liberals go back to sleep"

as they did for 8 years of drones and surveillance w/ Big Bam

Biden’s polling numbers vs Bernie are going up not down iirc

bernie won't be the nominee unless something happens to biden -- a health event or some outrageous scandal

even then, who knows what would happen at the convention

at this point, i just want biden to "wake up" and be with it enough to take on trump and the republicans. i just want a candidate who seems aware of what is happening in the country.

Bernie will not be the Democratic nominee no matter what happens.

I’d say odds are non-negligible that Biden may not be, either. But that in no way would clear the lane for Sanders. That much is clear.

https://media2.giphy.com/media/l4pTjh7CkEQzzkyu4/giphy.gif

I really want to believe all the talk about him being intentionally shielded from making public appearances because his brain is sundowning is being overblown but the few times he's poked his head out these last two weeks he's really sounded bad.

He’s a wreck.

xxp 27 states have not yet had primaries.

He's got 900+ delagates to Biden's 1200.

If Biden were somehow incapacitated—depending on when—Bernie could still reach the convention with a delegate count that would make it difficult for the party to deny him.

lol y’all have got to stop.

Yeah, it's not going be difficult for the party to deny Bernie

Sadly

awww 😢

will, It's fine, just explain what happens in a contested convention where for whatever reason Biden hasn't reached 1,991 delegates and the runner-up has, say, 1200

I guess the thinking is that Biden would just coronate the candidate of his choice, pushing all his delegates over, and the party won't see any risk in letting that happen?

That would be the democratic way to do it, yes

xp obviously it's highly unlikely, I'm just not clear on your certainty considering the process

That actually *would be* one way to actually manifest the imaginary lefty sit-out neolibs dread

There are nearly 4000 thousand delegates to be won, and I just don't get why a candidate getting 1200 delegates should win if there are 2000+ who'd rather get another one. That is how democracy works.

I think the left is kinda in the wrong here

uh..."another one" is not a candidate.

you are presuming *every* vote for Biden is = an anti-Bernie vote