I read all the actual-scientist corrections in that Epstein interview in the voice of Ron Howard's Narrator.
― Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Monday, 30 March 2020 04:29 (four years ago) link
(xpost) I noticed that too, that the deaths went down (above), although you're looking at the States and I was looking at world totals--first time in almost two weeks, globally.
― clemenza, Monday, 30 March 2020 04:32 (four years ago) link
I remember there being a dip last Sunday before a Monday surge so it might just be the reporting. Hopefully I'm mistaken.
― Fetchboy, Monday, 30 March 2020 04:37 (four years ago) link
entirely possible. was just surprised at the size of the dip, but it could just as easily shoot back up tomorrow.
― narcissistic sleighride (Neanderthal), Monday, 30 March 2020 04:38 (four years ago) link
please for all of your sanity don't read much into one days' data point on any of this stuff. Deaths per day in the US are going to continue to go up before they go down. The IHME projections (for USA and its several States) drive this point home. (They're premised on the continuation of strong distancing measures.)
― silby, Monday, 30 March 2020 04:40 (four years ago) link
it's almost as if I JUST FUCKING SAID THAT
― narcissistic sleighride (Neanderthal), Monday, 30 March 2020 04:43 (four years ago) link
the IHME projections at https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections are a curve-fitting exercise, i.e. they're the kind of thing a physicist would do. this doesn't necessarily make them bad, but ... well it kind of does. details below, but basically i wouldn't trust the totals implied by this model to any more than a factor of a few, and i wouldn't trust the details about when things will peak in each state *at all*.
there's no epidemiology in the model. they're literally taking the data for deaths/day by state, and fitting a curve with three parameters. AFAICT they choose the functional form of the curve because it's expedient rather than because it matches anything we know about epidemiology. and the fit involves extrapolating from very, very limited data. that's because we're early in the outbreak and the data is poor/incomplete. (look at the deaths per day plots. they're extrapolating from the solid line to the dashed line.) this situation (limited noisy data which you're forced to extrapolate into the far future) is exactly where some epidemiology would be useful to fill in the blanks or prevent obvious mistakes. a data-driven model is fine when you've got lots of data. we don't!
this is probably the reason there are some extremely dubious claims if you look at things in any kind of detail. e.g. they forecast the NY peak is 7 days away and they will be below 10 deaths/day by may 1 while the washington peak is still 20 days away and they'll be getting >10 deaths/day until almost june. this seems obviously nonsense. there are lots of these examples (NYS is a particular outlier relative to all the other states AFAICT).
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Monday, 30 March 2020 05:55 (four years ago) link
https://i.imgur.com/5TEZuYB.png
e.g. this is the model for NYS. they're extrapolating from the solid line to get the dashed line. just by eye, it should be obvious that they're out on a limb here. you could draw lots of dashed lines with the same basic shape and they'd all be reasonable extrapolations from the tiny amount of data we have, with very different peaks and areas under the curve (i.e. total deaths).
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Monday, 30 March 2020 06:00 (four years ago) link
Maybe we should just all agree that we can all look at whichever graph makes us feel the best
― silby, Monday, 30 March 2020 06:04 (four years ago) link
love this one
https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/files/co2_data_mlo.jpg
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Monday, 30 March 2020 06:06 (four years ago) link
The general idea, I think, is that lockdown levels of suppression stops community transmission enough so that when you slowly start easing restrictions you can isolate and quarantine the cases that do happen and stop outbreaks in their tracks. Difficulty with that is that in this case is that Coronavirus is so ridiculously transmissible with its 2-week period where you feel fine but are very infectious that it makes the isolate-and-track stuff incredibly difficult. So you need to get both hardcore on the tracking (see South Korea and phone tracking) and on the hygiene (masks for everyone and wash your hands). And if it all fails you are back to lockdown again. Repeat until vaccination arrives. (Or countries like Sweden prove that you can achieve a good enough reduction of transmission with less draconian lockdowns and everyone switches to that model. This is what the UK was initially going for, until it recognised the NHS couldn’t cope with the increased level of cases this route entails)
― Fizzles, Monday, 30 March 2020 07:32 (four years ago) link
I’m not sure this is true, as far as is currently known risk of catching from someone with no symptoms is low
You're less infectious (55% is the figure I just saw) but you're higher risk is the point, since you're going about in public rather than hunkering down.
― Andrew Farrell, Monday, 30 March 2020 07:48 (four years ago) link
Something I thought worth mentioning is the remarkable fact that 66%-80% of all COVID-patienst in Dutch hospitals and in ICU are obese. Has this been noticed anywhere else? Experts think it could be because people with diabetes are more at risk. Still a very high percentage imo.
From this: "‘Almost all the patients on an IC ward are overweight,’ Peter van der Voort of Groningen University’s teaching hospital said. ‘We don’t know why, but it is very noticeable.’"
― Hey, let me drunkenly animate yr boats in about 25 to 60 days! (Le Bateau Ivre), Monday, 30 March 2020 09:08 (four years ago) link
In Italy, obesity is the most common comorbidity.
Visceral fat reduces lung tidal volume. And adipose tissue is a endocrine organ, producing more proinflammatory cytokines on its own.
I really wish I'd picked another drug to sedate me through the Trump presidency than alcohol, 7 kcal/g.
― Sanpaku, Monday, 30 March 2020 12:03 (four years ago) link
i have somehow lost weight during isolation, probably as my diet is now the healthiest diet anyone has ever had ever
(last night's found panettone excepted)
― ban laggy jazzer (imago), Monday, 30 March 2020 12:13 (four years ago) link
still overweight though. knew this would be a problem. knew it
― Sanpaku, Monday, March 30, 2020 2:03 PM (twenty-five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink
Quitting drinking three months ago has done fuck all for me in this regard :-/
― Hey, let me drunkenly animate yr boats in about 25 to 60 days! (Le Bateau Ivre), Monday, 30 March 2020 12:31 (four years ago) link
I'm not quite there, but definitely the healthiest diet I've ever had.
― clemenza, Monday, 30 March 2020 12:48 (four years ago) link
I've had a very healthy diet over the last two weeks of lockdown. Unfortunately, I've also had 2-3 beers pretty much every day of that two weeks, so, well.
― Unparalleled Elegance (Old Lunch), Monday, 30 March 2020 13:00 (four years ago) link
Ha I've also been 'using up' the really crappy chocolate / gift set things we got at Christmas and had shoved to the back of the cupboard. Needs must!
― kinder, Monday, 30 March 2020 13:03 (four years ago) link
idk how y'all are doing it. I've been stress eating a ton and haven't found the time to go for a run. luckily I haven't seemed to gain any weight...yet. I probably have but my belt still fits the same
― frogbs, Monday, 30 March 2020 13:12 (four years ago) link
I've lost weight, but I think that's just been having healthier snacks (even if it's just posh flat chocolate) than the tub of biscuits at work. Christ knows my cycling has dropped off.
― Andrew Farrell, Monday, 30 March 2020 13:14 (four years ago) link
I'd already started down the path when I moved five months ago and joined a gym (dropped 30 pounds). But I've also--even though I suspect it's completely irrelevant; contraction depends solely on interaction--been taking acetaminophen-related medication two or three times a day and eating really well the past three weeks hoping that'd be a slight edge in not getting sick.
― clemenza, Monday, 30 March 2020 13:17 (four years ago) link
Our diet has been pretty consistent for the past few weeks. That is, not much has changed. What has changed is my exercise habits, but that's mostly because I run inside and, with the gym closed and the weather cold and shitty, I haven't been doing that. My wife (and sometimes my kids, for that matter), have stayed pretty active inside with online exercise classes, yoga and the like, plus the occasional walk outside (weather permitting). I (and I assume some other people) tend to lose weight under stress, so it all seems to be balancing out, for the time being. The hardest thing, in a way, is waiting until the end of the day to have a beer or two.
xpost I have no idea how well they've run the data on underlying chronic conditions. For example, it was hypothesized that one reason it took off so fast in China was because so many people there smoke, and one reason it hit men harder than women was because more men smoked there then women. Logical, but I don't know if anything concrete came of that. Same with obesity in Italy (or wherever). For example, the United States might have the fattest people, but it will take some time for the data to shake out to determine if that really makes a big difference. Being overweight, or smoking, and so on, are innately not good for you, so one might assume they are bad conditions for this, but I have no real idea.
2-week period where you feel fine but are very infectious
This is something I still don't get. If you can feel fine, but still be very infectious, and yet the easiest way to transmit, at least for community transmission, is afaict via droplet - that is, coughing and sneezing. But if you're coughing and sneezing, then you're not feeling fine, are you?
― Josh in Chicago, Monday, 30 March 2020 13:23 (four years ago) link
I did see a medical review thingy on twit that suggested that smokers weren't dying in the US at anywhere close to the rates suggested by China.
― There's more Italy than necessary. (in orbit), Monday, 30 March 2020 13:26 (four years ago) link
Even with all that, the stats still point firmly towards men getting worse outcomes, and you could argue that this is due to some/all related factors mentioned above but it is very strange as a persistent finding.
― extremely Dutch coughing sound (gyac), Monday, 30 March 2020 13:27 (four years ago) link
I thought I saw something that said men get it *slightly* worse but not significantly. Like, of this group in the study, 106 men to 100 women or something.
― Josh in Chicago, Monday, 30 March 2020 13:28 (four years ago) link
There may be a genetic component to it as well. Pure speculation on my part, of course.
― coco vide (pomenitul), Monday, 30 March 2020 13:28 (four years ago) link
There usually is. He said completely unscientifically.
― Bridge Over Thorley Waters (Tom D.), Monday, 30 March 2020 13:29 (four years ago) link
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30117-X/fulltext
This sex predisposition might be associated with the much higher smoking rate in men than in women in China (288 million men vs 12·6 million women were smokers in 2018). Of note, one study (preprint)5 found that although ACE2 expression was not significantly different between Asian and white people, men and women, or subgroups aged older and younger than 60 years, it was significantly higher in current smokers of Asian ethnicity than Asian non-smokers; although no difference was found between smokers and non-smokers who were white. Nonetheless, the current literature does not support smoking as a predisposing factor in men or any subgroup for infection with SARS-CoV-2.
O_o
― There's more Italy than necessary. (in orbit), Monday, 30 March 2020 13:30 (four years ago) link
Behavioural factors seem to make more sense.
― extremely Dutch coughing sound (gyac), Monday, 30 March 2020 13:30 (four years ago) link
― frogbs, Monday, March 30, 2020 8:12 AM (eighteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink
Things could have gone a whole different way if, during my last week in the wild, I had stocked up on chips and Oreos instead of rice and beans. Believe me, I was tempted.
― Unparalleled Elegance (Old Lunch), Monday, 30 March 2020 13:33 (four years ago) link
My bf pointed out days ago that when he went out in public, women were wearing gloves and masks and men weren't. And men definitely weren't respecting a 6' distance from me yes in the grocery store.
― There's more Italy than necessary. (in orbit), Monday, 30 March 2020 13:35 (four years ago) link
Well, men *are* stupider and more prone to risky behavior.
― Josh in Chicago, Monday, 30 March 2020 13:38 (four years ago) link
Nothing more manly than being in the running for a Darwin Award, really.
― coco vide (pomenitul), Monday, 30 March 2020 13:39 (four years ago) link
My gf was listening to a thing from (I believe) a NYC ICU doc yesterday and he said that, anecdotally, he'd seen way more male covid patients than female. My gf speculated that it was because dudes were less hygienic in general, and I couldn't really disagree with that speculation.
― Unparalleled Elegance (Old Lunch), Monday, 30 March 2020 13:40 (four years ago) link
All true.
― Bridge Over Thorley Waters (Tom D.), Monday, 30 March 2020 13:41 (four years ago) link
xpost there are all those studies too about marriage and divorce in heterosexual couples and how men have more problematic health/don't live as long if they are not in a relationship.
― Yerac, Monday, 30 March 2020 13:42 (four years ago) link
I'm not fat (6'2", ~175 lbs), but I have Type 2 diabetes. Genetics, I guess; my dad had Type 1. I keep seeing these statements that diabetics are at higher risk for this than other folks, but I don't know how much that applies to me and can't be bothered worrying more.
― but also fuck you (unperson), Monday, 30 March 2020 14:15 (four years ago) link
I sneeze when I am feeling fine
― Microbes oft teem (wins), Monday, 30 March 2020 14:40 (four years ago) link
men have more problematic health/don't live as long if they are not in a relationship
this suggests that ~real~ straight women are meant to go "no no dear, I will lovingly cook for you from scratch with fresh ingredients and lots of vegetables even though you complain about them and would rather eat ready meals and takeaways", whereas I've just been going, oh, fine, ready meal and no veg again, saves me effort and an argument so win-win, and have put on 10x more weight than he has of course
tl;dr I am an obese walrus and the 'vid's gonna get me
― a passing spacecadet, Monday, 30 March 2020 14:51 (four years ago) link
taking acetaminophen-related medication two or three times a day
if you feel fine why do this to your liver???
― mom tossed in kimchee (quincie), Monday, 30 March 2020 15:09 (four years ago) link
xp aps lol yes well that plus also women typically badger men to take better care of themselves, see the doctor, etc, taking on the labor like making appts and reminding them of things, filling rx, whatever "fussy" stuff masculine men can't be bothered with because it doesn't involve firearms and bbq.
― There's more Italy than necessary. (in orbit), Monday, 30 March 2020 15:12 (four years ago) link
yeah, F is generally good at taking care of himself but I always tell him to wash his hands when he comes home first thing or before touching me (ha!) and also he has to go to yearly check ups. So now I feel very vindicated about all the hand washing.
― Yerac, Monday, 30 March 2020 15:16 (four years ago) link
Protip 4 the manz: a red-hot bbq grill is grate for cauterizing a stump if you accidentally cut off a digit or limb and you don't have time to see a doctor about it (because you're polishing your guns or have some Madden to play).
― Unparalleled Elegance (Old Lunch), Monday, 30 March 2020 15:17 (four years ago) link
Wouldn't it be great if this actually happened (the lawsuits, that is)?
http://theweek.com/speedreads/905601/fox-news-reportedly-fears-early-downplaying-covid19-leaves-open-lawsuits
― clemenza, Monday, 30 March 2020 15:34 (four years ago) link
Thx OL, will integrate that into my basement axe throwing routine.
xp
― coco vide (pomenitul), Monday, 30 March 2020 15:35 (four years ago) link
alex jones as precedent imo xp
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Monday, 30 March 2020 15:40 (four years ago) link
Hungary passes law allowing Viktor Orban to rule by decree
smdh
― Hey, let me drunkenly animate yr boats in about 25 to 60 days! (Le Bateau Ivre), Monday, 30 March 2020 15:45 (four years ago) link
Never let a good crisis go to waste.
― coco vide (pomenitul), Monday, 30 March 2020 15:47 (four years ago) link