outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

hundreds infected on us navy aircraft carrier

OK, I heard the interview with the CDC yesterday where dude (Redfield?) acknowledged they were reassessing (though not yet recommending) people wear face masks when they go out. Yet it sounded like it was based not on protecting yourself but once again potentially limiting transmission from those who have it. That is, given that so many people seem to be asymptomatic, either full-stop or for a few days before they start exhibiting symptoms, better to cover your nose and mouth to prevent yourself from spraying covid all over before you know any better. But this interview was paired (at least as I encountered it) with an interview with the head of WHO, and both doctors again noted that the virus is by most accounts most efficiently spread through droplets in proximity (via coughing and sneezing, which that Medium piece just above reaffirms) and that significant aerosol transmission from covid literally just hanging around (a la measles) is still not suspected to be the case.

Which brings up the quandary I mentioned: if I am coughing and sneezing and blowing my nose then I am *not* asymptomatic, and if I am *not* coughing and sneezing and blowing my nose, and my mouth is closed, and I am just breathing normally through my nose (as I typically do), then I can't possibly be spreading it all over the place via droplets, and seem at low risk from just catching it from the air the same way (as long as I am not stationed by someone sneezing, coughing or blowing their nose). Now, touching surfaces and unknowingly spreading it that way, sure, that makes sense, especially if I am not washing my hands or I'm touching my face or coughing into my fist or whatever. But a mask won't stop someone from getting it from a doorknob or handle or other surface; they also have to wash their hands all the time for prevention. Indeed, the CDC guy suggested one of the downsides of wearing masks is they give some people a misplaced feeling of invincibility when there often just offering modest, incomplete protection. Which leads me once again to wonder what benefit (to others) there is to wearing a mask unless you are not at all symptomatic.

Now, that Medium piece is right that there is also no *harm* in wearing masks, any more than there is no harm in wearing a hat, and it's at least potentially more helpful than a hat. But given that the built in assumption is that masks (at least in the hands - face? - of civilians) are likely not close to 100% effective (yes, you must cover your nose as well, for example), it still seems to me a better strategy to, mask or no, avoid being around people who are sneezing, coughing, etc. If you can't do that, by all means, people should mask up! But the handful of times I've been out and relatively close to people I have been struck by how quiet it's been. No chatting, no people on phones, and most conspicuously (so far) no sneezing, coughing, etc. And if there was it would not only really stuck out, but I would steer clear, mask or no.

(Caveat being this is strictly an academic argument. By all means, wear a mask if you want. Maybe things will change and you will help rebuild society after dumb people like me are dead.)

just been to the mini-mart by me and they've finally put a perspex guard up across the tills, as i said to the cashier it's taken them long enough for a cheap bit of plastic

dude...

that was for josh.

lol thanks

I totally understand why some people might want masks! And maybe they'll soon recommend everyone wear masks, and I would wear one. But it seems to me just a small part of a bigger safety system, barring new developments, and nowhere near as important as washing hands and distancing.

I am just breathing normally through my nose (as I typically do)

Putting up sneeze guards seems like it could be a good idea. Are they effective with salad bars, or are they just there to make us feel more comfortable?

But it seems to me just a small part of a bigger safety system

yes. you have it right.

life...how does it work?

We all go through life wearing masks.

If you need convincing re: masks, do a quick google for 'washington choir covid'. That's all I needed, really.

Being a small part of a bigger safety system seems like... a good thing to be?

idk maybe being in a room where you're projecting your voice loudly while standing in place, not good

The idea that you are carefully keeping your droplets all to yourself is possibly incorrect.

this is like Paul Rudd in Wet Hot American Summer where he makes that big production out of picking up something off the floor.

lol

xp yeah the Washington choir incident has made me do a 180 on even just a bandana, def wearing one on my next dog walk

One of the authors of that study, Jamie Lloyd-Smith, a UCLA infectious disease researcher, said it’s possible that the forceful breathing action of singing dispersed viral particles in the church room that were widely inhaled.

You think? 60 people singing in close proximity for 2 1/2 hours, even as people in the area were already dying? That's numbering.

But yeah, singing, shouting, even speaking, in addition to coughing and sneezing, but just silently walking around is expressing droplets all over the place?

(lol, that should have been numberwang, autocorrect should have known better).

Tbh, I sympathize with the confusion on this. It all goes back to official messaging that stressed over and over the need to stay away from people who are coughing and sneezing. It reinforces this idea that if someone isn't hacking in your face, then you are probably ok. Meanwhile, you have this not very clearly articulated counterpoint that no, it actually spreads much easier than that.

Yeah 60 people in a room singing for two and a half hours is very different from going to the shops fwiw. But that was absolutely negligent behaviour from whoever decided to go ahead with the rehearsal.

the "official" messages in most countries have been entirely inadequate and counterproductive. if you want to make an inner acknowledgement that some people are dicks then fine, but politicans had ONE JOB in this situation

masks would be good but probably seems right that medicos get em first then people that have to work with the public or with others in confined or proximate space next, and social isolating sensibly while still getting outside for a bit seems fine as fine goes for the rest of us

walking past someone, sans dropleting all over them somehow, still seems not to be the issue some are making of it

all is unclear besides

I haven't seen or heard anything suggesting that it spreads very easily though the air unless you are around someone sneezing and so on. It apparently does that much easier than the flu does, it seems, for sure, but it's not like measles, where someone can walk into a room, walk out, and that room is still contagious for several minutes.

I've said before that I don't agree with people who go about their normal life unless specifically told not to do something, but I get the impulse.

But a bunch of people singing in the same room, come on

I think we really need official *rules* and then official *guidelines* but we're getting very mixed messaging and no one is doing anything unless it's a legal proclamation

even ultra-libertarians think the minimum function of government is to ward against dickishness

Actually I've just seen the rehearsal took place on March 6th where most people were still going about their business as normal. Just terrible luck above all else.

I guess this is the way I'm looking at it to an extent: I have not left my building in > 2 weeks except for a short walk nearly two weeks ago and have been exceedingly cautious about not coming into direct contact with any surfaces outside of my apartment, constantly hand washing, etc., and I'm still asymptomatic. I'm like 99% sure that if I go to the grocery store or something, I'm not going to be spreading this virus to anyone. But I also feel to an extent that I'm basically restarting the clock at the point where I enter a public place. And so if I were to go out again after that, I would feel remiss in not wearing a mask.

But also because I'm me, I'll definitely be wearing a mask the next time I leave the building and every time thereafter for some time to come.

But I also feel to an extent that I'm basically restarting the clock at the point where I enter a public place.

We are on the same page here, but I would feel this way even if I was wearing a mask when I went out.

I think the rehearsal was March 10 (email was March 6), I was counting days.

masked or not I highly recommend people go for regular walks in sparsely populated areas if any are available. being cooped up all day for weeks on end is probably deleterious*

*not a doctor

The article I saw said the rehearsal was March 10. There were already people dying in Seattle, and the choir director not only acknowledged the “stress and strain of concerns about the virus" but everyone washed hands with sanitizer at rehearsal. So it was just a terrible lapse of judgement all around.

I think gloves or hand protection seem more important/impactful than masks, tbh, if you're not sneezing etc. or around anyone doing that. I have worn gloves to the store.

xxxpost Oh yeah, to be clear, I don't think wearing a mask means I wouldn't be restarting the clock. Short of wearing a full HAZMAT suit on every public excursion, I'm under the assumption that we're re-upping our risk every time we leave our homes and enter an enclosed public space.

I got everything sorted at the end of January for the possibility of quarantines, empty shelves and loss of internet in both places that we could've ended up hunkering down in. My spouse was humoring me and now we are all cozy and I get to say "yeah mofo, see I was right."

xxxpost Also vitamin D! I've always heard that's one of the few vitamins/supplements with real proven benefits, and that most of us don't get enough vitamin D in the best of circumstances. One of the apparent benefits, along with bolstering your immune system, is positively affecting your mood.

I’ve been dosing up on vit d for the last few weeks cause I was deficient, not sure it has improved my mood all that much but maybe it has idk

One number I keep coming back to is 2: the current estimate for the average number of people that a coronavirus patient infects (for seasonal flu it's 1.3).

That says to me that those two people are likely to be the people you're in regular proximity with, which makes me a lot more relaxed about picking it up from a bit of packaging or from someone passing me in the street (as long as they didn't cough or sneeze on me as they passed). Am I being naive?

I don't think so. I think the vast majority of people have likely gotten it from sustained close proximity.

Oh, some other news you can use: we know someone who works at our Trader Joe's, and she told us that yeah, at first the trucks and deliveries were pretty erratic, but they seem to be back to their old rhythms, which means if we're not quite there we are close to supply and demand being back in balance. The only things I've heard stores struggling with stocking remain cleaning supplies and (still inexplicably) TP.

my coworkers are saying this thing is pretty much "over" in small towns

I don't think you are naive, alba. I was just talking the other day though about how peoples' usual MO is to like, drive wrecklessly for 2 minutes to save 5 minutes of time even though a possible outcome could be the loss of hours, $$$ or life. And it usually works out fine so we keep doing it.

Some of these precautions are annoying but such low effort, like I am constantly wtf about how people can't make risk(effort)/reward calculations for themselves.

uhhh xp

my coworkers are saying this thing is pretty much "over" in small towns

Caveat: author lives in Taiwan iirc but this is a detailed look at where we stand with mask efficacy and recommendations. https://stratechery.com/2020/unmasking-twitter/

(Caveat because China/who stuff in that article I guess?)

This might be the first instance where someone in a small town calls something that is all the rage in big cities "over."

lmao links to SlateSt4rC0dex what is with these people

Is that the new Autechre mix?