outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

I didn't say the guy was smart or anything because he wrote Hillbilly Elegy - I've never read the book and don't know anything about him - just that he had an interesting post with lots of good citations (that I thought I saw posted here?). I think he's conservative, but wrote the big thread specifically to counter all the claims making the rounds in right-wing circles:

I’ve been reading a lot of the contrarian (primarily from fellow righties) COVID19 opinions, and I wanted to work through them in good faith. I find most of them pretty unpersuasive. As they say, THREAD:

— J.D. Vance (@JDVance1) April 8, 2020

Anyway, I think what he wrote wasn't at odds with Fauci. It's quite possible, per Fauci, that 50% of all cases are asymptomatic. What the Hillbilly guy was saying was that in places where a big number of all cases are asymptomatic, there is a still a significant number of deaths. But in populations with no reported covid deaths, there are also no reported asymptomatic covid cases, which indicates it's not completely widespread yet.

NYT:

New research indicates that the coronavirus began to circulate in the New York area by mid-February, weeks before the first confirmed case, and that it was brought to the region mainly by travelers from Europe, not Asia.

“The majority is clearly European,” said Harm van Bakel, a geneticist at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, who co-wrote a study awaiting peer review.

A separate team at N.Y.U. Grossman School of Medicine came to strikingly similar conclusions, despite studying a different group of cases. Both teams analyzed genomes from coronaviruses taken from New Yorkers starting in mid-March.

The research revealed a previously hidden spread of the virus that might have been detected if aggressive testing programs had been put in place. On Jan. 31, President Trump barred foreign nationals from entering the country if they had been in China — the site of the virus’s first known outbreak — during the previous two weeks.

Hope this news doesn't lead to any vigilante attacks against European-Americans

They should go back to where they came from!

Gross incompetence or malignant intent?

Los Angeles Times: Hospitals say feds are seizing masks and other coronavirus supplies without a word.

In Florida, a large medical system saw an order for thermometers taken away. And officials at a system in Massachusetts were unable to determine where its order of masks went.

Hospital and health officials describe an opaque process in which federal officials sweep in without warning to expropriate supplies.

Jose Camacho, who heads the Texas Assn. of Community Health Centers, said his group was trying to purchase a small order of just 20,000 masks when his supplier reported that the order had been taken.

Camacho was flabbergasted. Several of his member clinics — which as primary care centers are supposed to alleviate pressure on overburdened hospitals — are struggling to stay open amid woeful shortages of protective equipment.

“Everyone says you are supposed to be on your own,” Camacho said, noting Trump’s repeated admonition that states and local health systems cannot rely on Washington for supplies. “Then to have this happen, you just sit there wondering what else you can do. You can’t fight the federal government.”

i have a friend who was incredibly, incredibly sick in late november in California with something that has every symptom of COVID-19. He was relieved to see that article about it possibly being in CA around that time. Hopefully he can get an antibody test.

xp oh a rhetorical question, how cute, what the fuck do you think these fascist pigs are doing

hint: profiteering and killing poor people, like always

this is schmaltzy but I'll take any positive i can find just now
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mndkG32D5Cg

Fauci:

“When you gradually come back, you don’t jump into it with both feet. You say, ‘What are the things you could still do and still approach normal?’ One of them is absolute compulsive hand-washing.

“The other is you don’t ever shake anybody’s hands. I don’t think we should ever shake hands ever again, to be honest with you."

https://time.com/5818134/anthony-fauci-never-shake-hands-coronavirus/

Suits me, I hate shaking hands. We need an elaborate system of bowing in its place, possibly involving little dances too.

The federal government will end funding for coronavirus testing sites on Friday. While some sites will transition to being state-managed, others will close as a result. This as criticism continues that not enough testing is available.https://t.co/DuBCbJoRDO

— All Things Considered (@npratc) April 8, 2020

I like shaking hands with people...the prospect of living in a world where people are afraid to touch each other is dreadful

^^ I love shaking hands. This whole sterilize-the-world movement is shortsighted.

shaking hands, totally fine with never doing that ever again.

What will dogs think?!

I love a hug and a kiss but I hate shaking hands

Can we still shake cocks

perfectly fine way of saying hello to someone is a wee nod of the head and saying "awrite" ime

Had no idea we were going to cure Parkinsons through this.

Finger guns are surging right now.

great news for groping presidential candidates

Also, Mike Love.

The Faroe Islands veterinary scientist who converted his salmon virus testing lab to SARS-CoV-2 testing in early March:

Guardian: Veterinary scientist hailed for Faroe Islands' lack of Covid-19 deaths

The 5300 tests his lab has run account for 10.8% of the island's population. For comparison,Iceland has tested 9.6%, NY state 2%, the US 0.7%, and the UK 0.4%.

so many men are so cavalier about hand washing, gotta think I’ve touched a lot of pee via handshakes

"Urine is sterile!", shouts the non-handwashing guy.

i cut out the middle-man and wash my hands in piss

I have seen so many men, and not the ones you'd think, completely skip the sink after both urinal and stall.

me too and I've been informed a fair amount of women don't wash too

Japanese tv is telling me about an Australian trial to test the effectiveness of BCG vaccine in reducing coronavirus viral load. Which juts tells me I know even less about vaccines that the tiny amount I thought I knew.

Immune systems have a lot of moving parts. T-cells are just the most specialized. It's possible the BCG vaccine triggers some generalized immune responses that are helpful against COVID-19, but not specialized to it. I leave this stuff to the people with the fancy labs and decade-long post-grad educations.

Ed I linked a couple of pieces about this here

BCG vaccine is not a conventional vaccine. "It does not prevent primary infection and, more importantly, does not prevent reactivation of latent pulmonary infection". Its used in treatment of superficial bladder cancer, and experimentally as an adjuvant in cancer immunonology. So, seems to be some sort of generalized immune stimulant.

Serious issues with BCG supply, it seems. I'm not sure this could be scaled up quickly.

BCG is a generic and it’s stable, if it turns out to be effective, they’ll scale it up. It’s cheap to produce as well.

Which also means trump is less likely to invest in it and then rant about it.

Have been wondering if theirs childhood (and possibly pre travel) BCG Japan’s would still do anything for me.

BCG confers a degree of long term immunity (some vaccines like MMR are this way, flu vaccines not so much), but one of the articles I linked said it’s safe to reimmunise anyway. Though the guidance says it doesn’t work for over 35s, but maybe that’s just the on label use? Can’t imagine bladder cancer is that common in that age group.

Everybody dreaded getting the BCG jag when I was at school, so many horror stories circulated the classroom!

I don’t remember getting mine though I have that big scar to show for it.

Yes, it's a brutal vaccination.

is the BCG vaccine the one that leaves the noticeable round scar visible on the upper left arms of most Britishers (my age)? the round scar I don't seem to have and I've been half-thinking for ages I should ask the GP if my records list it?

anyway it's 25 years since I had or didn't have it, so probably makes no odds for me vs the 'rona any more. does it need topping up for its intended anti-TB purpose?

interesting articles, too tired to read properly now but thanks!

Yeah, that's the one. Discussed before, but everybody in the UK who was between the age 10 and 14 and between the years 1953 and 2005 would have got the BCG vaccine - which, I imagine, covers pretty much all UK-born ILXors.

there were horror stories at my school too and also I hated the school nurse so I think my mum got the GP practice nurse to do mine instead (lol at this combo of cowardice & exceptionalism, I know) - a kinder and more practised arm-stabber for sure, but it seems odd that I would get away unscarred all the same

They don’t do the bcg vaccination routinely in the US IIUC. The fact that I was immune to tb was a huge hassle for my green card because there’s a presumption I must have had it and therefore could have a latent infection. Had to pay the big bucks for a quantiferon (?) test. Seems unlikely bcg helps with Covid given covids prevalence in the uk.

Indeed, Boris would have got it from the school nurse at Eton (Yaroo!) and look where he ended up.

One number I keep coming back to is 2: the current estimate for the average number of people that a coronavirus patient infects (for seasonal flu it's 1.3).

That says to me that those two people are likely to be the people you're in regular proximity with, which makes me a lot more relaxed about picking it up from a bit of packaging or from someone passing me in the street (as long as they didn't cough or sneeze on me as they passed). Am I being naive?

― Alba, Tuesday, March 31, 2020

So it turns out that now the CDC think the number is 5.7.

Gulp.

🚨New higher R0 from CDC reanalysis... it’s a 5.7!🚨(95% Confidence Interval: 3.8–8.9). Wowzers. This much higher #SARSCoV2 R0 value carries lot of implications for vaccines and treatments and containment measures needed. 📌Thread 🧵 #COVID19 https://t.co/DRlqyqC8lP pic.twitter.com/rVWZPojMxO

— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) April 8, 2020

where? globally, the states, uk?

Not the CDC, but to be published in a CDC-run journal. It's the same Los Alamos lab group that estimated 4.7 and 6.6 on 9 Feb. It's very much on the high side of the published estimates (which average around 3.0).

weve a national figure here that has gone down dramatically since the first measurement fwiw, ive seen us as tracking less than 1 for a while i think

this seems...like dece news?

https://www.today.com/video/dr-anthony-fauci-virus-death-toll-may-be-more-like-60-000-than-100-00-to-200-000-81825861735

it's been a week since I last read about R0

so the typical carrier infects a median of 5.7 people, plz correct me no matter what

less than 1 is the goal for relaxation of *some* soc-dist standards, right? (tho im holding out for 4 months after being vaccinated)