outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

shaking hands, totally fine with never doing that ever again.

What will dogs think?!

I love a hug and a kiss but I hate shaking hands

Can we still shake cocks

perfectly fine way of saying hello to someone is a wee nod of the head and saying "awrite" ime

Had no idea we were going to cure Parkinsons through this.

Finger guns are surging right now.

great news for groping presidential candidates

Also, Mike Love.

The Faroe Islands veterinary scientist who converted his salmon virus testing lab to SARS-CoV-2 testing in early March:

Guardian: Veterinary scientist hailed for Faroe Islands' lack of Covid-19 deaths

The 5300 tests his lab has run account for 10.8% of the island's population. For comparison,Iceland has tested 9.6%, NY state 2%, the US 0.7%, and the UK 0.4%.

so many men are so cavalier about hand washing, gotta think I’ve touched a lot of pee via handshakes

"Urine is sterile!", shouts the non-handwashing guy.

i cut out the middle-man and wash my hands in piss

I have seen so many men, and not the ones you'd think, completely skip the sink after both urinal and stall.

me too and I've been informed a fair amount of women don't wash too

Japanese tv is telling me about an Australian trial to test the effectiveness of BCG vaccine in reducing coronavirus viral load. Which juts tells me I know even less about vaccines that the tiny amount I thought I knew.

Immune systems have a lot of moving parts. T-cells are just the most specialized. It's possible the BCG vaccine triggers some generalized immune responses that are helpful against COVID-19, but not specialized to it. I leave this stuff to the people with the fancy labs and decade-long post-grad educations.

Ed I linked a couple of pieces about this here

BCG vaccine is not a conventional vaccine. "It does not prevent primary infection and, more importantly, does not prevent reactivation of latent pulmonary infection". Its used in treatment of superficial bladder cancer, and experimentally as an adjuvant in cancer immunonology. So, seems to be some sort of generalized immune stimulant.

Serious issues with BCG supply, it seems. I'm not sure this could be scaled up quickly.

BCG is a generic and it’s stable, if it turns out to be effective, they’ll scale it up. It’s cheap to produce as well.

Which also means trump is less likely to invest in it and then rant about it.

Have been wondering if theirs childhood (and possibly pre travel) BCG Japan’s would still do anything for me.

BCG confers a degree of long term immunity (some vaccines like MMR are this way, flu vaccines not so much), but one of the articles I linked said it’s safe to reimmunise anyway. Though the guidance says it doesn’t work for over 35s, but maybe that’s just the on label use? Can’t imagine bladder cancer is that common in that age group.

Everybody dreaded getting the BCG jag when I was at school, so many horror stories circulated the classroom!

I don’t remember getting mine though I have that big scar to show for it.

Yes, it's a brutal vaccination.

is the BCG vaccine the one that leaves the noticeable round scar visible on the upper left arms of most Britishers (my age)? the round scar I don't seem to have and I've been half-thinking for ages I should ask the GP if my records list it?

anyway it's 25 years since I had or didn't have it, so probably makes no odds for me vs the 'rona any more. does it need topping up for its intended anti-TB purpose?

interesting articles, too tired to read properly now but thanks!

Yeah, that's the one. Discussed before, but everybody in the UK who was between the age 10 and 14 and between the years 1953 and 2005 would have got the BCG vaccine - which, I imagine, covers pretty much all UK-born ILXors.

there were horror stories at my school too and also I hated the school nurse so I think my mum got the GP practice nurse to do mine instead (lol at this combo of cowardice & exceptionalism, I know) - a kinder and more practised arm-stabber for sure, but it seems odd that I would get away unscarred all the same

They don’t do the bcg vaccination routinely in the US IIUC. The fact that I was immune to tb was a huge hassle for my green card because there’s a presumption I must have had it and therefore could have a latent infection. Had to pay the big bucks for a quantiferon (?) test. Seems unlikely bcg helps with Covid given covids prevalence in the uk.

Indeed, Boris would have got it from the school nurse at Eton (Yaroo!) and look where he ended up.

One number I keep coming back to is 2: the current estimate for the average number of people that a coronavirus patient infects (for seasonal flu it's 1.3).

That says to me that those two people are likely to be the people you're in regular proximity with, which makes me a lot more relaxed about picking it up from a bit of packaging or from someone passing me in the street (as long as they didn't cough or sneeze on me as they passed). Am I being naive?

― Alba, Tuesday, March 31, 2020

So it turns out that now the CDC think the number is 5.7.

Gulp.

🚨New higher R0 from CDC reanalysis... it’s a 5.7!🚨(95% Confidence Interval: 3.8–8.9). Wowzers. This much higher #SARSCoV2 R0 value carries lot of implications for vaccines and treatments and containment measures needed. 📌Thread 🧵 #COVID19 https://t.co/DRlqyqC8lP pic.twitter.com/rVWZPojMxO

— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) April 8, 2020

where? globally, the states, uk?

Not the CDC, but to be published in a CDC-run journal. It's the same Los Alamos lab group that estimated 4.7 and 6.6 on 9 Feb. It's very much on the high side of the published estimates (which average around 3.0).

weve a national figure here that has gone down dramatically since the first measurement fwiw, ive seen us as tracking less than 1 for a while i think

this seems...like dece news?

https://www.today.com/video/dr-anthony-fauci-virus-death-toll-may-be-more-like-60-000-than-100-00-to-200-000-81825861735

it's been a week since I last read about R0

so the typical carrier infects a median of 5.7 people, plz correct me no matter what

less than 1 is the goal for relaxation of *some* soc-dist standards, right? (tho im holding out for 4 months after being vaccinated)

also the new 60,000 figure is assuming social distancing through May.

Not exactly hoping to wash May out too, but....positive development.

also enjoyed Fauci on the Today show today.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

where? globally, the states, uk?

A reanalysis of the China data. And this is the number for unchecked transmission, ie without social distancing etc. Still, a lot higher more infectious than previously thought, if the analysis is right.

ok thanks

its definitely up where our figures started at before measures

I definitely had the OWW MY BCG jab at school but I don't have a scar. did you all have the 'daisy prick' one too? was that one you had first to check for allergy to BCG?

Not the CDC, but to be published in a CDC-run journal. It's the same Los Alamos lab group that estimated 4.7 and 6.6 on 9 Feb. It's very much on the high side of the published estimates (which average around 3.0).

ugh, I'm just doing some sums I don't understand here, but according to some equation I read on the internet a R0 of 6.6 would mean 85% of the population would need to get it survive it to get the uk govt's promised herd immunity

brr

PS I have 0 qualifications in any meaningfully science-related field so I shouldn't be trusted plugging numbers into anything

Your post prompted me to do something I've been meaning to do since I first came across the term: look up an explanation of herd immunity. I knew it wasn't my personal interpretation, that a whole bunch of people stand in a field together and beat the virus down.

Makes sense--it's a tipping point. The daunting thing, I guess, is that to get there, most of us need to get infected first.

In six months, what will the entire human race look like with regards to infection, anyhow?

An interesting view on how to handle the virus in Africa

In South Africa, the average male dies before the age of 60, and 3% of the population is over 65.The median age in Africa is 18. In Europe, it’s 42. Africa is the world’s youngest continent, by far.

We must ask, then, whether African nations (including South Africa) have as much reason to fear Covid-19 as regions where so much of the population is older.

a whole bunch of people stand in a field together and beat the virus down

Like the printer scene in Office Space

The Associated Press reports:

The top U.S. infectious disease official says coronavirus antibody tests are just days away. Dr. Anthony Fauci says at the last White House coronavirus task force meeting, the people responsible for developing, validating and disseminating the tests were saying “a rather large number of tests” will be available within a week.

Fauci told CNN on Friday he’s ”certain that that’s going to happen.” An antibody test could show whether a person was recently exposed to the coronavirus. Fauci says the test would say “that you were infected and if you’re feeling well you very likely recovered.”

Fauci says medical experts could then try to determine how deeply the virus “has penetrated the society” and whether previously infected people would be vulnerable to reinfection, which is particularly “important for health care workers.”

“a rather large number of tests”

i wish they could be a little more specific, but this seems like very good news

Extremely good news, and pretty much the necessary step on multiple fronts.

We had the exact same news two weeks ago and the tests ended up being useless. Hopefully these are more successful.