outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

Japanese tv is telling me about an Australian trial to test the effectiveness of BCG vaccine in reducing coronavirus viral load. Which juts tells me I know even less about vaccines that the tiny amount I thought I knew.

Immune systems have a lot of moving parts. T-cells are just the most specialized. It's possible the BCG vaccine triggers some generalized immune responses that are helpful against COVID-19, but not specialized to it. I leave this stuff to the people with the fancy labs and decade-long post-grad educations.

Ed I linked a couple of pieces about this here

BCG vaccine is not a conventional vaccine. "It does not prevent primary infection and, more importantly, does not prevent reactivation of latent pulmonary infection". Its used in treatment of superficial bladder cancer, and experimentally as an adjuvant in cancer immunonology. So, seems to be some sort of generalized immune stimulant.

Serious issues with BCG supply, it seems. I'm not sure this could be scaled up quickly.

BCG is a generic and it’s stable, if it turns out to be effective, they’ll scale it up. It’s cheap to produce as well.

Which also means trump is less likely to invest in it and then rant about it.

Have been wondering if theirs childhood (and possibly pre travel) BCG Japan’s would still do anything for me.

BCG confers a degree of long term immunity (some vaccines like MMR are this way, flu vaccines not so much), but one of the articles I linked said it’s safe to reimmunise anyway. Though the guidance says it doesn’t work for over 35s, but maybe that’s just the on label use? Can’t imagine bladder cancer is that common in that age group.

Everybody dreaded getting the BCG jag when I was at school, so many horror stories circulated the classroom!

I don’t remember getting mine though I have that big scar to show for it.

Yes, it's a brutal vaccination.

is the BCG vaccine the one that leaves the noticeable round scar visible on the upper left arms of most Britishers (my age)? the round scar I don't seem to have and I've been half-thinking for ages I should ask the GP if my records list it?

anyway it's 25 years since I had or didn't have it, so probably makes no odds for me vs the 'rona any more. does it need topping up for its intended anti-TB purpose?

interesting articles, too tired to read properly now but thanks!

Yeah, that's the one. Discussed before, but everybody in the UK who was between the age 10 and 14 and between the years 1953 and 2005 would have got the BCG vaccine - which, I imagine, covers pretty much all UK-born ILXors.

there were horror stories at my school too and also I hated the school nurse so I think my mum got the GP practice nurse to do mine instead (lol at this combo of cowardice & exceptionalism, I know) - a kinder and more practised arm-stabber for sure, but it seems odd that I would get away unscarred all the same

They don’t do the bcg vaccination routinely in the US IIUC. The fact that I was immune to tb was a huge hassle for my green card because there’s a presumption I must have had it and therefore could have a latent infection. Had to pay the big bucks for a quantiferon (?) test. Seems unlikely bcg helps with Covid given covids prevalence in the uk.

Indeed, Boris would have got it from the school nurse at Eton (Yaroo!) and look where he ended up.

One number I keep coming back to is 2: the current estimate for the average number of people that a coronavirus patient infects (for seasonal flu it's 1.3).

That says to me that those two people are likely to be the people you're in regular proximity with, which makes me a lot more relaxed about picking it up from a bit of packaging or from someone passing me in the street (as long as they didn't cough or sneeze on me as they passed). Am I being naive?

― Alba, Tuesday, March 31, 2020

So it turns out that now the CDC think the number is 5.7.

Gulp.

🚨New higher R0 from CDC reanalysis... it’s a 5.7!🚨(95% Confidence Interval: 3.8–8.9). Wowzers. This much higher #SARSCoV2 R0 value carries lot of implications for vaccines and treatments and containment measures needed. 📌Thread 🧵 #COVID19 https://t.co/DRlqyqC8lP pic.twitter.com/rVWZPojMxO

— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) April 8, 2020

where? globally, the states, uk?

Not the CDC, but to be published in a CDC-run journal. It's the same Los Alamos lab group that estimated 4.7 and 6.6 on 9 Feb. It's very much on the high side of the published estimates (which average around 3.0).

weve a national figure here that has gone down dramatically since the first measurement fwiw, ive seen us as tracking less than 1 for a while i think

this seems...like dece news?

https://www.today.com/video/dr-anthony-fauci-virus-death-toll-may-be-more-like-60-000-than-100-00-to-200-000-81825861735

it's been a week since I last read about R0

so the typical carrier infects a median of 5.7 people, plz correct me no matter what

less than 1 is the goal for relaxation of *some* soc-dist standards, right? (tho im holding out for 4 months after being vaccinated)

also the new 60,000 figure is assuming social distancing through May.

Not exactly hoping to wash May out too, but....positive development.

also enjoyed Fauci on the Today show today.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

where? globally, the states, uk?

A reanalysis of the China data. And this is the number for unchecked transmission, ie without social distancing etc. Still, a lot higher more infectious than previously thought, if the analysis is right.

ok thanks

its definitely up where our figures started at before measures

I definitely had the OWW MY BCG jab at school but I don't have a scar. did you all have the 'daisy prick' one too? was that one you had first to check for allergy to BCG?

Not the CDC, but to be published in a CDC-run journal. It's the same Los Alamos lab group that estimated 4.7 and 6.6 on 9 Feb. It's very much on the high side of the published estimates (which average around 3.0).

ugh, I'm just doing some sums I don't understand here, but according to some equation I read on the internet a R0 of 6.6 would mean 85% of the population would need to get it survive it to get the uk govt's promised herd immunity

brr

PS I have 0 qualifications in any meaningfully science-related field so I shouldn't be trusted plugging numbers into anything

Your post prompted me to do something I've been meaning to do since I first came across the term: look up an explanation of herd immunity. I knew it wasn't my personal interpretation, that a whole bunch of people stand in a field together and beat the virus down.

Makes sense--it's a tipping point. The daunting thing, I guess, is that to get there, most of us need to get infected first.

In six months, what will the entire human race look like with regards to infection, anyhow?

An interesting view on how to handle the virus in Africa

In South Africa, the average male dies before the age of 60, and 3% of the population is over 65.The median age in Africa is 18. In Europe, it’s 42. Africa is the world’s youngest continent, by far.

We must ask, then, whether African nations (including South Africa) have as much reason to fear Covid-19 as regions where so much of the population is older.

a whole bunch of people stand in a field together and beat the virus down

Like the printer scene in Office Space

The Associated Press reports:

The top U.S. infectious disease official says coronavirus antibody tests are just days away. Dr. Anthony Fauci says at the last White House coronavirus task force meeting, the people responsible for developing, validating and disseminating the tests were saying “a rather large number of tests” will be available within a week.

Fauci told CNN on Friday he’s ”certain that that’s going to happen.” An antibody test could show whether a person was recently exposed to the coronavirus. Fauci says the test would say “that you were infected and if you’re feeling well you very likely recovered.”

Fauci says medical experts could then try to determine how deeply the virus “has penetrated the society” and whether previously infected people would be vulnerable to reinfection, which is particularly “important for health care workers.”

“a rather large number of tests”

i wish they could be a little more specific, but this seems like very good news

Extremely good news, and pretty much the necessary step on multiple fronts.

We had the exact same news two weeks ago and the tests ended up being useless. Hopefully these are more successful.

I'm confused about this given that antibody tests have not only been developed but are already being used in studies in Germany; is he saying we're about ready to approve them?

General statistical question.

The States, according to the worldometer site, has done 2,487,113 tests and turned up 488,589 positives, just shy of 20%.

Canada has done 370,315 tests and turned up 21,243 positives, just over 5%.

Does this mean it's just not as prevalent in Canada, that the bar for being able to get tested in Canada is lower (meaning you don't have to be as clearly sick to be tested), or does it mean nothing absent a lot more context?

probably means that canada did a better job of preparing for and containing the virus

um, false. USA #1

Based on # of tests/per million, we're testing at a rate about 20% higher than the States, so I'm guessing the second possibility has something to do with it, that it's easier to get a test here without so being clearly symptomatic, and that therefore, even after allowing for asymptomatic carriers, we turn up fewer positives.

Yes, that

I'm sure there are specific equations describing herd immunity for different R0s, but the general idea is that when the percentage of immune herd members gets high enough any one individual who becomes infected will encounter less than one other non-immune herd member before recovering (or dying), thus quickly breaking the chain of transmission through the herd.

When the baseline R0 is low, it describes a disease that is more difficult to transmit from individual to individual, so herd immunity is achieved at lower rates of individual immunity within the herd. The higher the baseline R0, the easier the disease is to pass along and the more widespread individual immunity must be to break the chain of transmission.

Best job: Utah: 12,601 tests/1 M, 5.1% positive
Worst job: Oklahoma: 818 tests/1 M, 52.5% positive

clemenza, WA for one has not reported counts of negative tests for some days, for what it's worth.

(for technical reasons that I suppose they are working to overcome)

There are so many variables, I don't know why I keep trying to do amateur interpretation, but still I do.

Bodies left in streets of Guayaquil as Ecuador struggles with coronavirus https://t.co/YE33X7yNpm

— Channel 4 News (@Channel4News) April 10, 2020

jesus god

This is the most American shit. Send 10 cops to do the job of a free paper mask. https://t.co/rth7AzuejQ

— David Weiner (@daweiner) April 10, 2020

The world passed 100,000 deaths today, and he USA passed 500,000 cases.