outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

I'm confused about this given that antibody tests have not only been developed but are already being used in studies in Germany; is he saying we're about ready to approve them?

General statistical question.

The States, according to the worldometer site, has done 2,487,113 tests and turned up 488,589 positives, just shy of 20%.

Canada has done 370,315 tests and turned up 21,243 positives, just over 5%.

Does this mean it's just not as prevalent in Canada, that the bar for being able to get tested in Canada is lower (meaning you don't have to be as clearly sick to be tested), or does it mean nothing absent a lot more context?

probably means that canada did a better job of preparing for and containing the virus

um, false. USA #1

Based on # of tests/per million, we're testing at a rate about 20% higher than the States, so I'm guessing the second possibility has something to do with it, that it's easier to get a test here without so being clearly symptomatic, and that therefore, even after allowing for asymptomatic carriers, we turn up fewer positives.

Yes, that

I'm sure there are specific equations describing herd immunity for different R0s, but the general idea is that when the percentage of immune herd members gets high enough any one individual who becomes infected will encounter less than one other non-immune herd member before recovering (or dying), thus quickly breaking the chain of transmission through the herd.

When the baseline R0 is low, it describes a disease that is more difficult to transmit from individual to individual, so herd immunity is achieved at lower rates of individual immunity within the herd. The higher the baseline R0, the easier the disease is to pass along and the more widespread individual immunity must be to break the chain of transmission.

Best job: Utah: 12,601 tests/1 M, 5.1% positive
Worst job: Oklahoma: 818 tests/1 M, 52.5% positive

clemenza, WA for one has not reported counts of negative tests for some days, for what it's worth.

(for technical reasons that I suppose they are working to overcome)

There are so many variables, I don't know why I keep trying to do amateur interpretation, but still I do.

Bodies left in streets of Guayaquil as Ecuador struggles with coronavirus https://t.co/YE33X7yNpm

— Channel 4 News (@Channel4News) April 10, 2020

jesus god

This is the most American shit. Send 10 cops to do the job of a free paper mask. https://t.co/rth7AzuejQ

— David Weiner (@daweiner) April 10, 2020

The world passed 100,000 deaths today, and he USA passed 500,000 cases.

Re antibody tests: it depends on what they're being used for. If it's for diagnosing covid, then they're pretty much useless. Authorities here gave a real life example of a patient who came back from Italy, checked themselves into a private hospital where they received both an antigen and an antibody test for covid. The antibody test result came back first - it was negative, so the hospital discharged the patient even though the antigen test had not yet come back from the lab. By the time it did with a positive test result, the patient had already, stupidly, broken quarantine and gone to work, infecting a whole bunch of people who later spread it to their families.

Antibody tests are more useful if we're trying to gauge the scale of the pandemic - how many people have actually had it, how many have recovered from it, and who might be immune to it. But it's not perfect either because as we're starting to learn, there are people who have recovered from covid that either did not develop antibodies or developed very low amounts which might indicate that it's possible for them to be re-infected. There have also been cases of antibody tests showing false positives in the UK, which is dangerous for people who think they might be immune to it but are actually not.

Re R0: here in Malaysia, the R0 value for covid was 3.55 (ie one person infected is likely to infect 3-4 other people) and it's now down to 1.0 after widespread lockdown measures. So in the absence of a vaccine or more information on how long immunity lasts, i guess we gotta stay indoors.

This is really interesting.

The rally behind the leader phenomenon is clearly international so no point dwelling on it from a domestic pov, at least not yet. https://t.co/WsBk952lTU

— Simon (@simonk_133) April 11, 2020

yeah, it's been this way for a while, and he's right. any most elections will only take place in a post-covid environment, and that's boost won't be relevant then.

💀💀💀

Louisiana church expecting 2,000 at Easter service despite coronavirus: "Satan and a virus will not stop us" https://t.co/2Gj6Z5y4ED pic.twitter.com/ULHmbfYgwz

— The Hill (@thehill) April 10, 2020

motherfuckers ARE the virus

Darwin Awards more aptly named than ever.

look as long as they’re okay with remaining confined to the church for 14 days after the service is over i’m okay with it too

I'm sure it'll be somewhere between awkward and terrible, but I'll probably look in on a few minutes of SNL tonight. Anthony Fauci was funny on CNN yesterday, though, when someone asked him who he wanted to play him if he turned up in a sketch. First he laughed it off--you could tell he hadn't watched the show since 1975--then, when given a choice between Ben Stiller and Brad Pitt, he said, without any hesitation, Pitt.

xpost Satan and the virus will *not* stop them. It will just be the virus; Satan is social distancing.

iirc god provided specific instruction to smear the blood of a lamb above your door and #staythefuckhome

Sensible debunking of that theory, posted upthread, about covid spreading in California in the fall: https://slate.com/technology/2020/04/coronavirus-circulating-california-2019-bunk.html?via=taps_top. I still can't believe they cited VDH in that article

As the cited presence-of-antibodies test's should be announced on Monday, I'm thinking it would be rather easy to attempt to debunk such a test before then...?

https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/04/04/stanford-researchers-test-3200-people-for-covid-19-antibodies/

someone asked him who he wanted to play him if he turned up in a sketch

The US has no monopoly on morons:

Lancashire Telegraph: Vital healthcare phone lines cut by 5G-coronavirus conspiracy theory idiots

(xpost) In the midst of all the gloom, I thought it was a nice moment. Fauci seemed to enjoy the question.

I hate to say this--Trump turns it into an international competition every day--but the Russian numbers on Worldometer really do look phony. (I know--big surprise.) They're down for 1,184,442 tests, third most in the world, and 13,584 cases, an infection rate of 0.01.

Putin should order their laboratories for developing new athletic performance enhancing drugs and methods for masking them to be refitted for covid testing. That would enhance their resources significantly.

haven't you heard? Russia developed the virus and already has the vaccine, according to people on social media (◔_◔)

Has there been anything about how this has affected the drug trade, and the cartel situation in Mexico?

From what little I know about the business plans of Mexican drug cartels, I would think they would be more affected by a lack of ready money among their best customers than any other factors brought on by the pandemic. Their supply chain isn't likely to be badly disrupted and end-user demand is kind of guaranteed, so I'd think some kind of cash famine would be the main obstacle they might have to face. But I would also expect they'd have enough cash reserves to tide them through.

I hate to say this--Trump turns it into an international competition every day--but the Russian numbers on Worldometer really do look phony. (I know--big surprise.) They're down for 1,184,442 tests, third most in the world, and 13,584 cases, an infection rate of 0.01.

Russia has an immense network of universities, hospitals, labs, etc testing at the moment. There is no reason to assume the number of tests conducted is wrong. aiui, though, the tests are not necessarily as sensitive/ sophisticated as the ones being used in some other countries so there’s a possibility they’re testing a vast number of people but only detecting the more severe cases.

I read a couple of weeks ago that cartel violence was through the roof because the police are occupied elsewhere

(xpost) Whenever I start interpreting statistics (except on I Love Baseball, where everyone will tell you I'm absolutely flawless), double-check my math. I had Russia's infection rate off by two decimal places...They're still a lot lower than other countries with wide-scale testing, but this at least seems reasonable.

Spain - 46.8%
France - 38.8%
Iran - 27.8%
UK - 23.6%
USA - 19.7%
Italy - 15.8%
Canada - 5.8%
South Korea - 2.0%
Australia - 1.8%
Russia - 1.3%

I still have to believe they're under-reporting cases (your point about number of tests seems valid, which I actually wasn't questioning, just the case load).

(I actually didn't have their infection rate wrong, I was just expressing it differently, as 0.01 instead of as 1.3%--and in my mind I was comparing 0.01 to numbers like 23.6 and 15.8.)

I read a couple of weeks ago that cartel violence was through the roof because the police are occupied elsewhere

I'd heard this too but was under the impression it was more to do with the situation between various cartels which isn't necessarily connected to current situation.

I was wondering more about how much demand-side was affected, but yes also about ability to traffic into the US and ability to import chemicals for fentanyl production

Bono has asked South Korea for PPE, medical equipment and diagnostic kits and will pay for it himself https://t.co/V1W6rgIaD2

— RTÉ News (@rtenews) April 12, 2020

If only there was some other way he could have been paying to ensure availabilty of essential medical supplies. Like maybe paying his taxes?

xps the number of cases in Russia jumped by over 2000 yesterday. It’s strongly suspected that it’s being underreported but it is also possible that the immediate measures taken to combat CV (quarantine everyone returning from overseas for 14 days, etc) slowed the initial impact and the country will basically be on the same track as Italy and Spain from this point on. It’s likely to spread geographically too - the Moscow government imposed a permit system to leave the house this weekend but an estimate 1.2m left the city on Friday.

You could say Fauci is dodging here, but if you watch the clip right to the end, I think that's about as blunt as he can be.

http://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/04/12/anthony-fauci-coronavirus-covid-19-shutdown-tapper-sotu-vpx.cnn

i'll always give Fauci ups for having the balls to say the inability to test in the early explosion was a "failing", which very much implied he was referring to the CDC's fuckups.

He's found a good equilibrium during the briefings. Someone will ask him, "The other day, Florida..." and he'll answer, "I won't address Florida, but if you're asking me in general, then yes..."

(Mind you, I left out the part where one day he said, "That's because I fucking hate Florida"--took everyone in the room by surprise.)

that's ok, I hate the part of it i live in too

By training, Fauci would far prefer to address the facts in terms of forming the most effective actions that can be taken in response, always moving forward as the facts on the ground keep shifting. His interviewers are most often trained in politics and they would far prefer to address the facts in terms of their political implications. Fauci knows he is in a political role as a government spokesperson, not just a medical expert and these interviews provide him the best available platform for disseminating the most current advice and stressing the need for public cooperation. He parries the political questions about as deftly as anyone in his position could, while still giving credible answers.

He stands out so much because he is clearly very competent in his public role, more so than any other visible administration official, but also as more competent than his interviewers, whose questions are so often over reaching or beside the point.