outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

Darwin Awards more aptly named than ever.

look as long as they’re okay with remaining confined to the church for 14 days after the service is over i’m okay with it too

I'm sure it'll be somewhere between awkward and terrible, but I'll probably look in on a few minutes of SNL tonight. Anthony Fauci was funny on CNN yesterday, though, when someone asked him who he wanted to play him if he turned up in a sketch. First he laughed it off--you could tell he hadn't watched the show since 1975--then, when given a choice between Ben Stiller and Brad Pitt, he said, without any hesitation, Pitt.

xpost Satan and the virus will *not* stop them. It will just be the virus; Satan is social distancing.

iirc god provided specific instruction to smear the blood of a lamb above your door and #staythefuckhome

Sensible debunking of that theory, posted upthread, about covid spreading in California in the fall: https://slate.com/technology/2020/04/coronavirus-circulating-california-2019-bunk.html?via=taps_top. I still can't believe they cited VDH in that article

As the cited presence-of-antibodies test's should be announced on Monday, I'm thinking it would be rather easy to attempt to debunk such a test before then...?

https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/04/04/stanford-researchers-test-3200-people-for-covid-19-antibodies/

someone asked him who he wanted to play him if he turned up in a sketch

The US has no monopoly on morons:

Lancashire Telegraph: Vital healthcare phone lines cut by 5G-coronavirus conspiracy theory idiots

(xpost) In the midst of all the gloom, I thought it was a nice moment. Fauci seemed to enjoy the question.

I hate to say this--Trump turns it into an international competition every day--but the Russian numbers on Worldometer really do look phony. (I know--big surprise.) They're down for 1,184,442 tests, third most in the world, and 13,584 cases, an infection rate of 0.01.

Putin should order their laboratories for developing new athletic performance enhancing drugs and methods for masking them to be refitted for covid testing. That would enhance their resources significantly.

haven't you heard? Russia developed the virus and already has the vaccine, according to people on social media (◔_◔)

Has there been anything about how this has affected the drug trade, and the cartel situation in Mexico?

From what little I know about the business plans of Mexican drug cartels, I would think they would be more affected by a lack of ready money among their best customers than any other factors brought on by the pandemic. Their supply chain isn't likely to be badly disrupted and end-user demand is kind of guaranteed, so I'd think some kind of cash famine would be the main obstacle they might have to face. But I would also expect they'd have enough cash reserves to tide them through.

I hate to say this--Trump turns it into an international competition every day--but the Russian numbers on Worldometer really do look phony. (I know--big surprise.) They're down for 1,184,442 tests, third most in the world, and 13,584 cases, an infection rate of 0.01.

Russia has an immense network of universities, hospitals, labs, etc testing at the moment. There is no reason to assume the number of tests conducted is wrong. aiui, though, the tests are not necessarily as sensitive/ sophisticated as the ones being used in some other countries so there’s a possibility they’re testing a vast number of people but only detecting the more severe cases.

I read a couple of weeks ago that cartel violence was through the roof because the police are occupied elsewhere

(xpost) Whenever I start interpreting statistics (except on I Love Baseball, where everyone will tell you I'm absolutely flawless), double-check my math. I had Russia's infection rate off by two decimal places...They're still a lot lower than other countries with wide-scale testing, but this at least seems reasonable.

Spain - 46.8%
France - 38.8%
Iran - 27.8%
UK - 23.6%
USA - 19.7%
Italy - 15.8%
Canada - 5.8%
South Korea - 2.0%
Australia - 1.8%
Russia - 1.3%

I still have to believe they're under-reporting cases (your point about number of tests seems valid, which I actually wasn't questioning, just the case load).

(I actually didn't have their infection rate wrong, I was just expressing it differently, as 0.01 instead of as 1.3%--and in my mind I was comparing 0.01 to numbers like 23.6 and 15.8.)

I read a couple of weeks ago that cartel violence was through the roof because the police are occupied elsewhere

I'd heard this too but was under the impression it was more to do with the situation between various cartels which isn't necessarily connected to current situation.

I was wondering more about how much demand-side was affected, but yes also about ability to traffic into the US and ability to import chemicals for fentanyl production

Bono has asked South Korea for PPE, medical equipment and diagnostic kits and will pay for it himself https://t.co/V1W6rgIaD2

— RTÉ News (@rtenews) April 12, 2020

If only there was some other way he could have been paying to ensure availabilty of essential medical supplies. Like maybe paying his taxes?

xps the number of cases in Russia jumped by over 2000 yesterday. It’s strongly suspected that it’s being underreported but it is also possible that the immediate measures taken to combat CV (quarantine everyone returning from overseas for 14 days, etc) slowed the initial impact and the country will basically be on the same track as Italy and Spain from this point on. It’s likely to spread geographically too - the Moscow government imposed a permit system to leave the house this weekend but an estimate 1.2m left the city on Friday.

You could say Fauci is dodging here, but if you watch the clip right to the end, I think that's about as blunt as he can be.

http://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/04/12/anthony-fauci-coronavirus-covid-19-shutdown-tapper-sotu-vpx.cnn

i'll always give Fauci ups for having the balls to say the inability to test in the early explosion was a "failing", which very much implied he was referring to the CDC's fuckups.

He's found a good equilibrium during the briefings. Someone will ask him, "The other day, Florida..." and he'll answer, "I won't address Florida, but if you're asking me in general, then yes..."

(Mind you, I left out the part where one day he said, "That's because I fucking hate Florida"--took everyone in the room by surprise.)

that's ok, I hate the part of it i live in too

By training, Fauci would far prefer to address the facts in terms of forming the most effective actions that can be taken in response, always moving forward as the facts on the ground keep shifting. His interviewers are most often trained in politics and they would far prefer to address the facts in terms of their political implications. Fauci knows he is in a political role as a government spokesperson, not just a medical expert and these interviews provide him the best available platform for disseminating the most current advice and stressing the need for public cooperation. He parries the political questions about as deftly as anyone in his position could, while still giving credible answers.

He stands out so much because he is clearly very competent in his public role, more so than any other visible administration official, but also as more competent than his interviewers, whose questions are so often over reaching or beside the point.

I also think he's the best example I've seen yet of something you've heard constantly since Trump's election, often with the series of generals he hired and then fired: that he stays and tries his best to be diplomatic because it would be disastrous if he got 2% more political and got fired. He walks right up to that line, as close as you can get, and stops--he seems to have figured out where it is. (Helped, I think, by the country's deep trust in him...I mean, minus Trump's base and the death-threat people. If Trump were to fire him at this point--and I'm not saying he's not capable of doing that, it's Trump--the fallout would be 1000 times what it was with any of those generals, who were largely in the background.)

Fauci knows he is in a political role as a government spokesperson, not just a medical expert

I have been a Fauci stan from way back (before he was popular). Agree but with a slight quibble: NIH/NIAID are primarily research entities, and are only involved incidentally in treatment. His role is as an administrator of a research institution - though he is, of course, a medical doctor, he hasn't spent a whole heck of a lot of a time being a clinician. Immunology is his jam; he doesn't spend his day with sick patients

As a result I would prefer more of a driver's seat role for CDC - which is more the entity that is supposed to coordinate medical activity as opposed to scientific activity.

As an aside I have spent many fascinating hours around NIH scientists, who are often brilliant and funny and very well-versed in their fields - but who are only tangentially aware of, y'know, people who have diseases. I recently went to a medical conference (on an unrelated issue) and was impressed by the erudition of the scientists, but their expertise was overwhelmingly in how the disease progressed in like, mice. Or fruit flies. So while very impressed by the science I had to keep clamping my hand over my mouth so as not to scream HEY HAVE YOU HEARD OF PEOPLE?

This thing will go through many phases of something-new-to-worry-about (if you don't eat meat, this is not one of them).

http://www.cnn.com/2020/04/12/business/meat-plant-closures-smithfield/index.html

I was wondering more about how much demand-side was affected, but yes also about ability to traffic into the US and ability to import chemicals for fentanyl production

Don't like linking to Vice articles, but here you go:
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/bvgazz/sinaloa-cartel-drug-traffickers-explain-why-coronavirus-is-very-bad-for-their-business

The coronavirus, which causes the disease COVID-19, has thrown a massive wrench in the gears of the global economy. Seemingly every industry that relies on China for labor or raw materials has been affected, most notably companies that make medical supplies and pharmaceuticals, which are essential for treating sick people and containing the spread of the virus. Drug cartels have not been immune.

Jesús said that normally his cooks keep about a month’s supply of chemicals on hand, but they were already running low and having difficulty restocking. A cook from another Sinaloa cartel faction, who identified himself as Enrique, reported a similar problem, saying the price of acetone, which is used to manufacture heroin, has more than doubled over the past 15 days, climbing from around $60 for 20 litres to $150.

Drug cartels have not been immune.

grudging respect

http://www.cnn.com/2020/04/13/politics/donald-trump-anthony-fauci-tweet/index.html

We were talking about Fauci just above:

If Trump were to fire him at this point--and I'm not saying he's not capable of doing that, it's Trump

I still don't think he'll go through with it...maybe he's, uh, distancing himself from Fauci.

The tweet is a warning shot across the bow, which he can do his cagey denial thing like, "people are saying..." about.

Dunno if Trump will fire Fauci but if he did, there is a small dark part of me that would be cool with Fauci saying "fine, enjoy your virus, have fun getting reelected after killing 2 million people."

Then my actual adult brain kicks back in: It would devastate NIAID, which is Faucitown. And it would reverberate forever through the science and public health communities basically forever.

that and kill 2 million people

(ron howard voice: he did enjoy the virus, and did have fun getting reelected after killing 2 million people)

silver linings:

Last month was the first March without a school shooting in the United States since 2002.

— robertklemko (@RobertKlemko) April 13, 2020

Jesus that’s grim

fukkin yikes

wow.

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200410/p2a/00m/0na/002000c

thus far data and anecdata (hospitalist pals) suggests that we are doing a Good Job, Buddy here in northern new mexico. cautiously hopeful that we may come out of this OK, public health-wise, though the tourist industry has taken a huge hit

oh i saw this about copper fiber masks in chile too. xpost

Faraday cage effect protects you from all 5 of the Gs

i am learning all sorts of things about copper today. Makes sense that the customs desks at the airport are all in copper.

in chile that is. I was wondering.

I thought Macron's speech last night was terrible. Firstly, the bad spray tan and wobbly camera gave it a Zoom ambiance---no one wants that! More importantly, he had rather little information and yet went on and on. Most importantly, he proposed the reopening of schools on 11 May, which is ludicrous: the schools were closed first because children are an important vector of the disease, so why open them when the disease is still rapidly spreading? There may be widespread testing available by then, but that's optimistic. As it is, it looks like children, teachers, and parents are going to be sacrificed to "get the economy restarted", so that parents can "go back to work". Président des riches, effectivement. We will be resisting.