We Still Have a Government, Right?: Canadian Politics 2020

I was born in St. Joe's.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/st-joseph-s-health-centre-reports-covid-19-outbreak-in-intensive-care-unit-1.5531209

(Isn't that somewhat alarmist use of the word "outbreak," though? Maybe that's all it takes, I don't know.)

I lived in the Junction area through much of the '80s and never got there even once, I'm sorry to say.

http://www.blogto.com/eat_drink/2020/04/toronto-pizzeria-open-1957-announces-permanently-closing/

(More for a Toronto thread, I guess, but COVID-related.)

Weren't you asking about this earlier, Sund4r?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cerb-emergency-benefits-trudeau-1.5532767

Yes, this is an improvement but Singh's solution was better, honestly. Why limit it to people who are making under $1000/mo?

And if this really means a $2k transfer to anyone making under $1k, that means someone who makes $950/mo will have total income of $2950/mo while someone who makes $1050/mo will have total income of $1050/mo. Seems very badly designed if that is really the case. (The website still lists the old rules, though.)

Almost our highest caseload ever today, with still more today left, so I guess we haven't plateaued like I thought.

BC has gotten off so lightly thus far and we have plateaued, otoh anecdotally social distancing was being flouted quite widely during the long weekend so maybe we'll see some movement in a couple weeks. Downtown Eastside also hasnt had an outbreak yet,(theres been one reported case) and it will likely be a real disaster if it takes grip there

Why did you get the sense people weren't socially distancing over the long weekend? I thought the ferry traffic stories were overblown. Still, wish it had been a typically rainy April.

Really scared of a DTES outbreak.

parks seemed busy. the truth about the ferry crossings seems unclear but it seems to absolutely have been the case that people went on vacation for the weekend to places like tofino and the Sunshine Coast from Vancouver (some acquaintances of my gf's Instagram stories showed this kind of thing). I live in strathcona and on Monday walked to hastings-sunrise and back to get cat-litter and saw multiple multigenerational families (grandparents, kids, grandkids) hanging out in their yards.

Concrete good news:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-canada-surge-hospitals-icus-deaths-1.5533391

There's a warning about not being in the clear, but: "And every day that goes by, it's less and less likely we're going to get there." ("There" meaning overwhelmed hospitals.)

The trail I walk where I am is very stress-free. When people approach, one of the party's always side-steps onto the grass well in advance. I did see three small (2-3) groups of people sitting on benches or tables the other day, but I'll hope and assume they were families.

andrew scheer is such a fucking moron

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/parties-negotiate-terms-of-parliaments-return-1.5537696

Caught about 20 seconds of him speaking earlier today, and my first thought--shows how tuned in I am--was "I thought he stepped down."

the world is falling apart and his top priority is parliament holding in-person sessions

conservatives are such weeners

not exactly political, but today's shooting spree started within an hour's drive of where I live.

Awful. glad you’re ok

Yeah,really just horrendous beyond words.

I still find stories like this amazing.

http://www.livekindly.co/cargill-shuts-meatpacking-facility-covid-19/

350 people at a single plant.

(I shouldn't be surprised, I know--I'm sure they haven't had the option of staying home. It's the date I find jarring: April 20, not March 20.)

Was listening to a story about this on the radio today: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-at-least-two-canada-chartered-planes-return-from-china-without-medical/
It's probably a minor issue so far but things could be grim if this becomes more normal.

On a more superficial note, Justin Trudeau has to have one of the most distinctive speaking voices I think I've heard. I can identify that it's him within a few words in either official language, even if I just turned on the radio. Something idk mannered, heavily enunciated, and quasi-theatrical about it. I've seen someone say that he sounds like he has a slight accent in both languages, which might be it.

This seems odd; not sure I see how it is not a free speech issue: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid-misinformation-disinformation-law-1.5532325y6

https://www.google.com/amp/s/globalnews.ca/news/6835881/pandemic-misinformation-law-coronavirus-canada/amp/

Does that work better?

Ugh, wrong link!

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid-misinformation-disinformation-law-1.5532325

More cautious than outside pressure--good job.

http://thepostmillennial.com/doug-ford-predicts-victoria-day-for-lifting-restrictions

maybe don't link that site?

Don't know a thing about it--is the story not accurate?

Okay, I read up on them a bit. Anyway, here's more or less the same story from CTV--if anything, indicating even more caution.

http://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/ontario-premier-walks-back-suggestion-that-covid-19-restrictions-could-loosen-by-victoria-day-1.4906840

The disinformation problem is huge and complicated. In a lot of ways it should be deemed intolerable because it literally endangers others and our reasonable limits on speech come into play. Chaos comes when enough damage has already been done that the ones tasked with enforcing what’s reasonable can’t agree on what‘s true.

I take it the border saves Trump from any citizen's arrests?

The disinformation problem is huge and complicated. In a lot of ways it should be deemed intolerable because it literally endangers others and our reasonable limits on speech come into play. Chaos comes when enough damage has already been done that the ones tasked with enforcing what’s reasonable can’t agree on what‘s true.

I don't agree that the examples given in the article meet the standard of things it should be illegal to say. (My standard for this is pretty high and definitely higher than the SCC's tbf.) Anything that does would be covered under existing legislation, though, so I don't see a need for a new law.

I get what you’re saying, but at the same time I could give you the names of around ten people who now say they won’t be vaccinating their children and will sign a petition against 5G because of one “passionate and dedicated” (their words) mom in one of my local facebook groups. Just a personal anecdote, yes, but I’m running into this stuff everywhere. A relative *urgently* sends me batshit propaganda, anti Bill Gates type videos almost daily now, This person used to be ok. My ethical threshold has definitely been crossed, but when it needs to be put in legal terms, you are right. I don’t really know what the solution is.

I know a couple of people who sound like Justin Trudeau and even have similar delivery! They’re lifelong bilingual Montrealers - and each went to private high school and/or a small anglo university like Bishops!
xpost

Ugh to general parenting fb groups that don’t automatically banhammer antivax talk :/

I agree with you. Unfortunately a lot of people in them take foolish pride in being non judgemental.

This seems like a convincing enough argument against the 'herd immunity' idea that Legault seems to be pitching: https://www.sciencealert.com/why-herd-immunity-will-not-save-us-from-the-covid-19-pandemic

Some alternative perspectives are cited here, though: https://montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/coronavirus-legault-prepares-quebecers-for-idea-of-herd-immunity/

Doesn't seem to be working v well for Sweden, from what I gather?

'Herd immunity' is just code for 'we need to get the economy up and running again'. While I get that keeping things at a relative standstill isn't feasible in the long run, Legault's 180-degree turn doesn't inspire confidence at all. His back-to-school policy has me worried not so much for the kids as for their parents. And what about more traditional – often immigrant – low-income households that comprise several generations, including the elderly?

The WHO issued this timely reminder today:

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/25/844939777/no-evidence-that-recovered-covid-19-patients-are-immune-who-says

'Herd immunity' is just code for 'we need to get the economy up and running again'.

It is also code for 'we don't think it will hurt us personally, just a bunch of people we don't care much about, especially weighed against our own security, comfort and convenience'. This approach should be a last resort, a backstop for if the search for a safe, effective vaccine completely fails.

Indeed. And it's especially problematic insofar as Quebec accounts for approximately half of all Covid-19 cases in Canada and 59% of deaths nationwide, despite being home to only 23% of the country's population.

WHO also issued this correction:

Earlier today we tweeted about a new WHO scientific brief on "immunity passports". The thread caused some concern & we would like to clarify:

We expect that most people who are infected with #COVID19 will develop an antibody response that will provide some level of protection. pic.twitter.com/AmxvQQLTjM

— World Health Organization (WHO) (@WHO) April 25, 2020

Swedish results seem mixed, but not disastrous:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52395866

The follow-up tweet seems significant:

What we don't yet know is the level of protection or how long it will last. We are working with scientists around the world to better understand the body's response to #COVID19 infection. So far, no studies have answered these important questions. pic.twitter.com/DisLjWCa4U

— World Health Organization (WHO) (@WHO) April 25, 2020

This also seems like a key passage from the BBC article:

Sweden, with a population of 10 million, remains amongst the top 20 in the world when it comes to the total number of cases, even though it mostly only tests those with severe symptoms. More widespread checks on key workers are now being introduced.
It has higher death rates in relation to its population size than anywhere else in Scandinavia.

Worldometer counts 217 deaths per million population in Sweden vs 65 in Canada fwiw. (The graphs that come with the BBC article seem misleading as they don't adjust for population size.) Do you see an upside being reported?

Anyway, it does seem that Legault is talking about something closer to a controlled, gradual, monitored easing of restrictions, which might make some sense?

More cases would be expected - that's the whole idea! But in terms of deaths, etc, the results seem equivocal. Nothing disastrous SO FAR. They're "worse off" than the rest of Scandinavia right now, but if their theory holds they'll be better off in the long run. (Obviously I have NO IDEA if their theory works.)

Montreal's "deaths per million" is 459, btw, and we're doing a (relatively) good job with social distancing, much stricter than Sweden. (Of course, most of our deaths are due to a disastrous, depressing long-term care home situation.)

BTW, I do not support this "herd immunity" thing - but after talking with a Swedish friend, I was surprised at how OK it seemed to be going.

Interesting points. It does seem that part of what might be helping in Sweden is that people are voluntarily physical distancing as it is. Probably relates to the thesis of this piece, that, even with the lifting of govt restrictions, economic behaviour will just not go back to 'normal' before we have a vaccine: https://thebulwark.com/we-cannot-reopen-america/

conventional wisdom seems to be accruing that "the virus can stay on hard surfaces" while true isn't the cause of any known transmission, it's all about HVAC and peopled trapped indoors with each other. so i expect the relaxing of distancing to be more about outdoor stuff than about resuming work in close closed spaces

herd immunity kicks in around 80%. a serology study found that NYC had 20% cases. so NYC would "only" have to have 3 more outbreaks of considerable size for it to kick in :-/