outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

Massive under-counting of pandemic deaths being probed in NYC:

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-deaths-confirmed-probable-daily-04142020.pdf

New York City today has reported 3,778 additional deaths that have occurred since March 11 and have been classified as "probable," defined as follows: “decedent [...] had no known positive laboratory test for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) but the death certificate lists as a cause of death “COVID-19” or an equivalent"

Today will be the highest amount of reported deaths in the USA, we've already eclipsed April 10th's peak with several hours of reporting left.

so, two Easters from now eh

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-14/harvard-researchers-say-some-distancing-may-be-needed-into-2022

i won't make it. i gotta avoid reading articles like that because imagining that kind of hell for 2 years, even intermittent, is enough to shut down all of my optimism

(not telling anybody not to post it, just venting my own despair)

They buried this at the end of that Bloomberg article (my bolding):

on-and-off social distancing measures might be needed until 2022, unless hospital capacity is increased, or effective vaccines or treatments are developed.

yeah. no effective vaccine and no effective treatment seems likely to lead to no effective response except more social distancing. or so many people have been infected that herd immunity takes over. duh.

Incredibly significant: Video appearing to show Guatemala health official saying deportation flight from US had between 50-75% of people test COVID-19+ -given @ICEgov packs flights, 100+ people *one flight* would be nearly as many cases as ICE has confirmed in custody *right now* https://t.co/4dl6XxO6UR

— Molly O'Toole (@mollymotoole) April 14, 2020

i mean, ICE and trump wouldn't submit migrants to unsafe conditions, lie about their covid status (or just never test them in the first place), and then deport them to another country without letting on about their condition, would they??

jhu usa map: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map

A 106-year old woman has just been discharged from hospital in the UK after recovering from the virus.

If you can live through two world wars and two lethal global pandemics then you are basically indestructible as far as I'm concerned.

ha, yes, a 104-year-old guy in Oregon survived it as well

https://wgntv.com/news/coronavirus/104-year-old-wwii-veteran-recovers-from-covid-19-celebrates-birthday/

Covid symptom tracker
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVplgZfUcAQYhwq?format=jpg&name=large

diar hoe a

https://imgix.bustle.com/rehost/2016/9/13/50f2d253-356b-4347-891c-2154194353e3.jpg

wow what an exceedingly worthless diagram

This is my favorite COVID graphing website for US/Canada. Simple and functional. And you can drill down into counties (at least in California).

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

as if we didn't know

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/antibody-tests-need-be-place-2nd-coronavirus-wave-cdc-director-n1182621

like I said, sex is kind of over for single people, unless Russian roulette is yr fancy

Given the number of deaths, USA either has truthfully had 2.5 - 3 million cases, or our mortality rate is alarmingly high, right?

The US ranks #14 in deaths per 1M capita (86/1M), trailing countries such as Spain(397/1M!), Belgium, Italy, France, UK, Holland, Switzerland, Sweden, Ireland...

...but the state of New York is tracking at 552/1M and not really slowing down sadly.

....and even then, those NY numbers are very under-reported and need to be adjusted as I posted upthread yesterday.

beyond galaxy brain:

“When it’s my time to go, God’s going to call me home,” Smith said. “I think that to live is inherently to take risks. I’m not concerned about this virus any more than I am about the flu.”

Smith supports Trump’s recent insinuation that he may forcibly reopen states whose governors continue to support stay-at-home orders, though it’s not clear that Trump actually has the power to do any such thing. “We are not promised a pathogen-free existence,” Smith said. “We do not have a constitutional right to not get a virus.”

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-loyalists-and-allies-urge-defiance-of-coronavirus-safety-measures

The Lansing protest has been embraced on “Michiganders Against Excessive Quarantine,” a growing Facebook group with more than 320,000 members. Like other critics of the current social distancing requirements, Ponkowski points to the national coronavirus death rates, which have failed to meet the direst predictions, as proof that it’s time to relax stay-at-home orders.

“They were predicting huge numbers of people falling ill and dying, and that wasn’t the case,” Ponkowski said.

It was wholly predictable that when drastic measures produced results, some people would point to those results and claim that it proved drastic measures were never warranted.

imagine when they see how big our military budget is, despite the fact that the US hasn't been invaded like ever

sad lol

imagine the measures we'd be taking if 25,000 americans had been killed over the last month by brown people

neat maps
https://www.inverse.com/science/data-reveal-air-pollution-levels-plummet-as-world-goes-on-lockdown

fucking McKinsey

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-governors-excl/exclusive-new-york-taps-mckinsey-to-develop-trump-proof-economic-reopening-plan-idUSKCN21Y01V

“When it’s my time to go, God’s going to call me home,” Smith said. “I think that to live is inherently to take risks. I’m not concerned about this virus walking out into fast-moving traffic any more than I am about the flu.”

“We are not promised a pathogen-free impact injuries-free existence,” Smith said. “We do not have a constitutional right to not get a virus mown down by 18-wheeler trucks.”

do these people realize that Applebees is not gonna reopen because they chose to be dumbasses

They do not

The thing is, given any kind of easing of restrictions, some places will open, and impatient people will flock to those places, and pretty soon we'll all be right back on lockdown again.

'we need our mojo back'

Dr. Oz just made the argument that we should reopen schools because *only* 2-3% of kids will die.
pic.twitter.com/yKaHEybZqj

— Joshua Potash (@JoshuaPotash) April 16, 2020

Mr. Mojo Risible

tbf it's not the kids who are gonna die, not that it makes this any less dumb

"mmmm....appetizing!"

Some friends of mine that have mostly taken a smart approach to things until now are starting to argue for reopening the NYC economy soon and it's causing me some distress. They're not even people who have suffered any personal economic losses as a result yet (other than maybe in their 401ks). They are posting stuff like "NYC needs to start reopening businesses by May 1!" and "School not starting in September is out of the question!" Like, you might as well say "The hurricane will just have to tack east, end of story."

“It’s simply unsustainable”

I just keep thinking about that tweet about people who "want to speak to the manager of Coronavirus." Maybe it's too glib but it's very accurate.

I spoke to the coronavirus and it didn't give a shit, sorry

man alive, sounds like your friends are bored. so bored. it is the absolutely worst to be that bored.

such survivors.

I mean, the only nod I give the "It's simply unsustainable" crowd is that, considering we have virtually no safety nets in place and a ruling party that actively wants the poor to die off, they aren't wrong - it's not sustainable in terms of our country adequately taking care of the 22 million out of work people (so far!) for many months. That part isn't sustainable.

I think 'managing the discontent' is going to be an increasingly prominent problem that the government is going to have to deal with. in some cases it might mean making a slightly suboptimal public health decision because the discontent is going to come with its own costs.

xp I'm aware it's trite as fuck, but that line about "it is easier to imagine an end to the world than an end to capitalism" - it turns out that's pretty much on the money, yeah.

Boredom is a big factor, I'm itching to get out there and do stuff even though I realize it's not wise.

Also, can't discount the fact that over 20M people suddenly lost their jobs. That's a whole lot of pissed off people that probably want things sorted out sooner than later.

Wisconsin extends stay at home order until May 26, school year officially cancelled

Did cases blow up after election day?

Ohio to reopen, somehow, May 1st.

or begin to reopen I guess

Also, can't discount the fact that over 20M people suddenly lost their jobs. That's a whole lot of pissed off people that probably want things sorted out sooner than later.

― Mario Meatwagon (Moodles),Thursday, 16 April 2020 17:14 (two hours ago) link

People who have the disease "want things sorted out sooner than later" too, but sometimes things just don't work that way. There is no "let's reopen the economy and change our ideas about the acceptable level of death." Even if you wanted to accept that kind of grim calculation, it wouldn't work. The economy would not just go back to functioning normally.

i do not take any reopening announcements or dates seriously