outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

Reuters: Former Labradoodle breeder tapped to lead U.S. pandemic task force

Shortly after his televised comments, (HHS Secretary) Azar tapped a trusted aide with minimal public health experience to lead the agency’s day-to-day response to COVID-19. The aide, Brian Harrison, had joined the department after running a dog-breeding business for six years. Five sources say some officials in the White House derisively called him “the dog breeder.”

Harrison decided, the sources say, to exclude FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn from the task force. “He said he didn’t need to be included,” said one official with knowledge of the matter.

Two sources familiar with events say the White House wasn’t getting information from the FDA about the state of the testing effort, a crucial element of the coronavirus response.

When you've screwed the pooch, who better to oversee the results?

the father of a thousand sonsofbitches

Michael Brown had been horse breeder, I think?

really like that image above, hope uhlfelder follows through

I don't find it too surprising that there were cases in California in January, and probably in the NYC area as well. There were direct flights from Wuhan to SF and NYC all through December and most of January, when there was basically zero testing or screening, so it would be more surprising if no cases were transmitted.

The USA has ~4% of the global population, ~32% of active COVID-19 cases & ~26% of global COVID-19 fatalities.

FLU

~50% of the world’s population lives in countries that are lying their ass off about the numbers

does seem like so many more people have perished from this than has been officially registered

FT estimated that 40K have died in the UK, rather than the 17K reported, based on ONS data for excess mortality over the norm for these months. In other places like Italy and Spain excess mortality was running about 80-120% over reported Covid-19 deaths.

What the FUCK is Cuomo talking about? Bloomberg isn't "designing" anything, I hope.

“Michael Bloomberg will design the program, design the training, he’s going to make a financial contribution,” Cuomo said at a news conference in Albany. “He has tremendous insight both governmentally and from a private sector business perspective in this.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/billionaire-mike-bloomberg-will-help-new-york-develop-coronavirus-test-and-trace-program-gov-cuomo-says.html

US may not be lying about their cases, but are sure as shit not testing much

The French government now says that the return to school for students on May 11 will not be obligatory, but rather only on a volunteer basis. Good. I suspect there will be rather few volunteers. We certainly won't be.

kinda want to know just how those cats were tested

I dig it, daddio.

by a very brave veterinarian with a 20-foot pole, i'm assuming

xxp blood antibody test I would think, but yeah... what lab, and what's the channel for veterinarians to submit samples?

Those cats had multiple samples taken at National Veterinary Services Laboratories, probably their lab on Plum Island off the tip of Long Island. Having taken cats to the vet before, I'm positive they were sedated for this.

I could imagine sneaking a swab to the back of their throat under sedation. But even that may not necessary going forward:
there's a (preprint) study that found saliva samples were better for rtPCR screening than the usual nasopharyngeal swabs (in humans).

Madagascar hands out 'miracle' virus cure as it lifts lockdown

Unarmed Madagascar soldiers went door-to-door in the capital Antananarivo, doling out sachets of a local herbal tea touted by President Andry Rajoelina as a powerful remedy against the novel coronavirus.

"We can change the history of the entire world," he said, after downing a dose. "Two people have now been cured by this treatment."

Oh good

xp: Also, NVSL seems to be using rtPCR, just with a different set of reagents.

Performing animal testing should not reduce the availability of tests for people. Testing performed on animals may be based on the published tests used in people, however, reagents are available that are not required for testing people. The NVSL and National Animal Health Laboratory Network (NAHLN) laboratories are using reagents for testing animals that are not required for testing in people.

Ramadan is going to be sad this year.

http://www.cnn.com/2020/04/23/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html

As a doctor in the piece says--assuming the tests are accurate--this can easily be interpreted as good news, in terms of trying to gauge how lethal the virus is.

otoh, it's lethal enough to be the leading cause of all deaths in the USA last week, and there's reason to think it killed even more people than the official tally assigns to it.

the better news in that cnn piece is that nearly 14% of the NYers tested had antibodies, which means most of those should have a measure of immunity to further infection and probably won't be vectors spreading it to others in the medium-term future.

Right, but those deaths happened regardless of how many people are infected; if the deaths are a smaller percentage of infections than previously thought, that's good news. (As for potentially unreported deaths, that's a separate issue.)

as someone who believes there's a good chance that basically everyone is gonna get exposed to this at some point that's definitely good news

there was a similar study out of Santa Clara but it found that the infection rate was actually 50-85x than what was reported which is absurd. it would mean that literally everyone in NYC has it

I regret to inform you that Chris Cuomo's family is infested with quackery:

https://thepuristonline.com/2020/04/the-cuomos-corona-protocol-week-3/

“I added ½ cup of Clorox to my bathwater to combat the radiation and metals in my system and oxygenate it.
I used a “body charger,” which energy specialist Randy Oppitz suggested I borrow from a friend. It sent electrical frequencies through my body to oxygenate my blood and stimulate the healthy production of blood cells to fortify my immune system. It also rebalanced my energy”

From energy specialist Randy Oppitz's LinkedIn:

Last week two of the world's most prominent cancer doctors asked if they could do a breast cancer study of my process. We are currently in discussions which are very promising. Maybe by the end of this summer headlines may read "Cancer cure has been discovered".

https://www.linkedin.com/in/randall-oppitz-0839643a

Chris Cuomo’s wife is the sister of a friend and this friend is also massively woowoo (they’re also London-raised).

That talk of radiation, metals, electrical energy and oxygenation is a pure manifestation of incantations and magical thinking, but magical thinking will never be eradicated for as long as humans walk the earth, no matter how often it fails.

given the direction we're going it may soon be SCIENCE!

has anyone tried applying magnets three times a day to coronavirus? i heard it prevents heart attacks, so maybe it could help (?!)

for some reason though, the only store that still carries them is something called infowars

Frogbs: that Santa Clara seroprevalence study has come under scrutiny, mostly stemming around their use of a Chinese antibody test that has inadequate specificity and a statistical error by the authors. For more details see Andrew Gelman and Balaji S. Srinivasan.

I've yet to see a detailed breakdown on the NYC seroprevalence study.

The Los Angeles area antibody test also came to the same conclusion as the Santa Clara & NYC tests... the virus was far more widely (and earlier) spread than previously believed.

It was kind of buried upthread but CA governor Newsom is now allowing for back-testing of pneumonia deaths in January and December as there have been discoveries of COVID-19 positives in secondary autopsies traced back to Feb wk1.

seroprevalence studies are showing that infection is more widespread than has been documented to date, which is something we have more or less known. how more widespread is obviously vital information as it is a crucial part of any serious plan to ease lockdown restrictions.

the PI of the santa clara study, john PA ioannidis, was a hero of mine but I have been really disappointed by some of his work over the past couple of months and the way he's allowed his work to be interpreted. this is a public health crisis but as everyone on this board knows (and knows better than most MDs and scientists unfortunately) it is also an economic and political crisis, and there are people on the right who are looking for any indication that things can return to normal so they can sacrifice working people for a buck. the paper being discussed is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed; normally a paper of this importance would not be disseminated this widely when there are methodological and statistical issues that can lead to misinterpretation and potentially premature political action. so it is disappointing to see him giving hourlong interviews on his work when it is at its current stage

"there was a similar study out of Santa Clara but it found that the infection rate was actually 50-85x than what was reported which is absurd. it would mean that literally everyone in NYC has it"

they said it COULD be 50-85% higher, they ddin't make a final determination I don't think; it also wasn't a peer reviewed study. That said, the information that more NYC people had antibodies than originally presumed does make me wonder what the true rate of exposure is both in the bay area and NYC.

msf/doctors without borders has launched operations in the USA, because the richest nation in the world is unable to get its shit together

according to the very smart ronald reagan, the 9 most terrifying words were "I'm from the Government, and I'm here to help." but since someone has to help in an emergency, it's apparently down to states (underfunded and lacking resources in many if not most cases) and charities. "run government like a business", they always said, but businesses lose money when they help in an emergency. the driver of business is profit, not public welfare. why would a business help?

"there was a similar study out of Santa Clara but it found that the infection rate was actually 50-85x than what was reported which is absurd. it would mean that literally everyone in NYC has it"

they said it COULD be 50-85% higher, they ddin't make a final determination I don't think; it also wasn't a peer reviewed study. That said, the information that more NYC people had antibodies than originally presumed does make me wonder what the true rate of exposure is both in the bay area and NYC.

― akm, Thursday, April 23, 2020 2:48 PM (twenty-seven minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

if I'm remembering rightly that study said that rate of infection was likely 50 to 85 times higher iirc. as Kevin says though, it hasn't been peer reviewed, and the people who made the study went to the press with it before having it peer reviewed or even publishing it, with is super sketchy

oh yeah and also one of the co-authors of the study wrote an op ed in the Wall Street Journal, that didn't identify him as such, talking about would such an economically costly shutdown have been put in if these "facts" were known (the implication of the study is that coronavirus is similarly as lethal as the flu)

lord that line of argument makes me crazy. like, the CFR or IFR or whatever the fuck could be ZERO with proper care and we would still be looking at a bloodbath if we all get it at once

which is why that POS David Katz, the sole 'expert' suggesting "herd immunity" by intentionally exposing everybody to it, needs to be dropkicked off of the Empire State Building

lord that line of argument makes me crazy. like, the CFR or IFR or whatever the fuck could be ZERO with proper care and we would still be looking at a bloodbath if we all get it at once

― Larry Elleison (rogermexico.), Thursday, April 23, 2020 6:08 PM (six minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

There's also the concrete fact that for covid to only have a mortality rate of the flu in New York based on deaths there so far everyone in New York would have to have covid

googled CFR, IFR, not sure what you’re talking about tbh

Coronavirus Fatality Rate, Infection-to-Fatality Ratio

also, Piece of Shit btw

after a quick tour of international news sites, i am stunned that none are leading with 'moron american president suggests injecting disinfectant'

CFR stands for case fatality rate. the number of people with a positive test who die divided by the number of people with a positive test. this is a number that is grounded in actual data but currently is overestimated because the denominator is limited by the number of tests available. (the numerator is closer to accurate because sicker people are the people being tested.)

IFR stands for infection fatality rate, or the number of people with the disease who die divided by the number of people with the disease. this can only be modeled because we don’t know the true prevalence of disease. models can be biased in one direction or another (ie if only people with symptoms are screened, or if you screen people, say, at a grocery store, who by virtue of not being in their house are more likely to have/have had the disease, this will increase the modeled denominator and make the disease look less deadly)