outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

otoh, it's lethal enough to be the leading cause of all deaths in the USA last week, and there's reason to think it killed even more people than the official tally assigns to it.

the better news in that cnn piece is that nearly 14% of the NYers tested had antibodies, which means most of those should have a measure of immunity to further infection and probably won't be vectors spreading it to others in the medium-term future.

Right, but those deaths happened regardless of how many people are infected; if the deaths are a smaller percentage of infections than previously thought, that's good news. (As for potentially unreported deaths, that's a separate issue.)

as someone who believes there's a good chance that basically everyone is gonna get exposed to this at some point that's definitely good news

there was a similar study out of Santa Clara but it found that the infection rate was actually 50-85x than what was reported which is absurd. it would mean that literally everyone in NYC has it

I regret to inform you that Chris Cuomo's family is infested with quackery:

https://thepuristonline.com/2020/04/the-cuomos-corona-protocol-week-3/

“I added ½ cup of Clorox to my bathwater to combat the radiation and metals in my system and oxygenate it.
I used a “body charger,” which energy specialist Randy Oppitz suggested I borrow from a friend. It sent electrical frequencies through my body to oxygenate my blood and stimulate the healthy production of blood cells to fortify my immune system. It also rebalanced my energy”

From energy specialist Randy Oppitz's LinkedIn:

Last week two of the world's most prominent cancer doctors asked if they could do a breast cancer study of my process. We are currently in discussions which are very promising. Maybe by the end of this summer headlines may read "Cancer cure has been discovered".

https://www.linkedin.com/in/randall-oppitz-0839643a

Chris Cuomo’s wife is the sister of a friend and this friend is also massively woowoo (they’re also London-raised).

That talk of radiation, metals, electrical energy and oxygenation is a pure manifestation of incantations and magical thinking, but magical thinking will never be eradicated for as long as humans walk the earth, no matter how often it fails.

given the direction we're going it may soon be SCIENCE!

has anyone tried applying magnets three times a day to coronavirus? i heard it prevents heart attacks, so maybe it could help (?!)

for some reason though, the only store that still carries them is something called infowars

Frogbs: that Santa Clara seroprevalence study has come under scrutiny, mostly stemming around their use of a Chinese antibody test that has inadequate specificity and a statistical error by the authors. For more details see Andrew Gelman and Balaji S. Srinivasan.

I've yet to see a detailed breakdown on the NYC seroprevalence study.

The Los Angeles area antibody test also came to the same conclusion as the Santa Clara & NYC tests... the virus was far more widely (and earlier) spread than previously believed.

It was kind of buried upthread but CA governor Newsom is now allowing for back-testing of pneumonia deaths in January and December as there have been discoveries of COVID-19 positives in secondary autopsies traced back to Feb wk1.

seroprevalence studies are showing that infection is more widespread than has been documented to date, which is something we have more or less known. how more widespread is obviously vital information as it is a crucial part of any serious plan to ease lockdown restrictions.

the PI of the santa clara study, john PA ioannidis, was a hero of mine but I have been really disappointed by some of his work over the past couple of months and the way he's allowed his work to be interpreted. this is a public health crisis but as everyone on this board knows (and knows better than most MDs and scientists unfortunately) it is also an economic and political crisis, and there are people on the right who are looking for any indication that things can return to normal so they can sacrifice working people for a buck. the paper being discussed is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed; normally a paper of this importance would not be disseminated this widely when there are methodological and statistical issues that can lead to misinterpretation and potentially premature political action. so it is disappointing to see him giving hourlong interviews on his work when it is at its current stage

"there was a similar study out of Santa Clara but it found that the infection rate was actually 50-85x than what was reported which is absurd. it would mean that literally everyone in NYC has it"

they said it COULD be 50-85% higher, they ddin't make a final determination I don't think; it also wasn't a peer reviewed study. That said, the information that more NYC people had antibodies than originally presumed does make me wonder what the true rate of exposure is both in the bay area and NYC.

msf/doctors without borders has launched operations in the USA, because the richest nation in the world is unable to get its shit together

according to the very smart ronald reagan, the 9 most terrifying words were "I'm from the Government, and I'm here to help." but since someone has to help in an emergency, it's apparently down to states (underfunded and lacking resources in many if not most cases) and charities. "run government like a business", they always said, but businesses lose money when they help in an emergency. the driver of business is profit, not public welfare. why would a business help?

"there was a similar study out of Santa Clara but it found that the infection rate was actually 50-85x than what was reported which is absurd. it would mean that literally everyone in NYC has it"

they said it COULD be 50-85% higher, they ddin't make a final determination I don't think; it also wasn't a peer reviewed study. That said, the information that more NYC people had antibodies than originally presumed does make me wonder what the true rate of exposure is both in the bay area and NYC.

― akm, Thursday, April 23, 2020 2:48 PM (twenty-seven minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

if I'm remembering rightly that study said that rate of infection was likely 50 to 85 times higher iirc. as Kevin says though, it hasn't been peer reviewed, and the people who made the study went to the press with it before having it peer reviewed or even publishing it, with is super sketchy

oh yeah and also one of the co-authors of the study wrote an op ed in the Wall Street Journal, that didn't identify him as such, talking about would such an economically costly shutdown have been put in if these "facts" were known (the implication of the study is that coronavirus is similarly as lethal as the flu)

lord that line of argument makes me crazy. like, the CFR or IFR or whatever the fuck could be ZERO with proper care and we would still be looking at a bloodbath if we all get it at once

which is why that POS David Katz, the sole 'expert' suggesting "herd immunity" by intentionally exposing everybody to it, needs to be dropkicked off of the Empire State Building

lord that line of argument makes me crazy. like, the CFR or IFR or whatever the fuck could be ZERO with proper care and we would still be looking at a bloodbath if we all get it at once

― Larry Elleison (rogermexico.), Thursday, April 23, 2020 6:08 PM (six minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

There's also the concrete fact that for covid to only have a mortality rate of the flu in New York based on deaths there so far everyone in New York would have to have covid

googled CFR, IFR, not sure what you’re talking about tbh

Coronavirus Fatality Rate, Infection-to-Fatality Ratio

also, Piece of Shit btw

after a quick tour of international news sites, i am stunned that none are leading with 'moron american president suggests injecting disinfectant'

CFR stands for case fatality rate. the number of people with a positive test who die divided by the number of people with a positive test. this is a number that is grounded in actual data but currently is overestimated because the denominator is limited by the number of tests available. (the numerator is closer to accurate because sicker people are the people being tested.)

IFR stands for infection fatality rate, or the number of people with the disease who die divided by the number of people with the disease. this can only be modeled because we don’t know the true prevalence of disease. models can be biased in one direction or another (ie if only people with symptoms are screened, or if you screen people, say, at a grocery store, who by virtue of not being in their house are more likely to have/have had the disease, this will increase the modeled denominator and make the disease look less deadly)

tbf, physicians inject regulated doses of poisons into humans in the name of curing or abating many serious lethal diseases, such as cancer. but to be even more fair, Trump is a moron who clearly doesn't understand the first thing about medicine.

Disturbing hostage-like situation unfolds as science guy tries to get off stage while President speculates about irradiating people's or injecting them with bleach. pic.twitter.com/qBhb8VVVxu

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) April 23, 2020

I think he's doing a Fred Willard bit.

what is your first reaction to this news from today:

Starting Friday, all 25,000 United Airlines flight attendants will be required to wear masks while on duty, the airline said. United is the first major U.S. airline to mandate masks. The union that represents flight attendants there and at more than a dozen other airlines separately asked the Transportation Department and Health and Human Services Department to mandate the same industrywide.

because mine is just bewilderment that no US airline has mandated it yet, or that the FAA or OSHA or CDC or some state didn't mandate it yet, or at least strongly recommend it? wtf, i have no idea why anyone would be on a flight right now unless it was an emergency, so for the sake of both the workers and the people going through emergencies on planes, wear the fucking masks! jfc

(no airline other than United, earlier today, i mean)

The predicted famine of biblical proportion is going to come right after all this food dumping. Because famines have very little to do with how much food there is. https://t.co/VWUl5ibmmM

— libcom.org (@libcomorg) April 24, 2020

i've got a question. i live in london and my aged parents live in the US. if one of them - or both - gets covid i will want to go visit them. can i?? feels weird. i'm a US citizen.

after a quick tour of international news sites, i am stunned that none are leading with 'moron american president suggests injecting disinfectant'

No-one outside the US pays any attention to what Trump says, he's your problem.

As a US citizen you can return to the US, and there are a few flights still going. However I’ve no idea what happens when you get there, it may well well vary state to state.

(For reference Australia sends every returnees into hotel jail for 14 days unless they are a billionaire)

so they're estimating 21% of NYC is/was infected

haven’t mets fans been through enough

No-one outside the US pays any attention to what Trump says, he's your problem.

let me tell you about that little site called ilx that disproves yr notion here

Fred and Comrade Alphabet are standing in for the rest of the world are they?

You know, we kind of have our own worries at the moment, outside the USA.

i swear every time i complain about ukilxors on the us politics thread pom or someone is there to say "you know US politic affects the rest of the world you can't expect us not to follow it"

Who, apart from the Comrade, posts on US politics threads?

And he's only doing it because he's bored of UK politics.

"Are you now or have you ever been a poster on the the politics threads of the United States"

i don't think one has to regularly pay attention to trump to relish the spectacle of a major world leader saying something so impossibly stupid

in any case, it is currently the lead story on bbc dot com slash news

in the middle of the NYT rolling coverage is this little 5 paragraph piece, titled "Isolating at home has become dangerous for many Italians."

Before everyone else in the West, Italians received and largely obeyed an order to stay at home. “I’m staying home” became a hashtag, then the name of a national ordinance and then a motto hung from balconies and windows.

But while staying home has worked, reducing the rate of infections, bringing down the daily toll of the dead and creating breathing room for hospitals, home has become a dangerous place for many Italians.

Italian households now represent “the biggest reservoir of infections,” said Massimo Galli, the director of the infectious diseases department at Luigi Sacco University Hospital in Milan. He called the cases “the possible restarting point of the epidemic in case of a reopening.”

The family acts as a multiplier, said Andrea Crisanti, the top scientific consultant on the virus in the Veneto region. “This is a ticking time bomb,” he said.

The predicament of home infections is emerging not just in Italy but in hot spots across the globe, in Queens and the Paris suburbs, as well as the working-class neighborhoods of Rome and Milan. It is also a problem that local officials and epidemiologists say is getting too little attention, particularly as the government has announced tentative steps toward reopening in early May.

that's it. uh, care to expand on that?! i think i know what they're saying? is it that most italians have been quarantined at home with their families, and some of those households have coronavirus whether they realize it or not, so there are these little cluster households that all have it and would quickly spread it to others when they start going outside and being near other people again?

or is that wrong? what a strangely empty, frightening little series of paragraphs

oops! i didn't see that it was just a teaser article, and it linked to the full piece here: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-home-isolation.html

The UK broadcast media, particularly the BBC, is slavishly devoted to US politics, which viewers complain about endlessly... and just switch over. I used to post on the US politics threads occasionally until I realized nothing was ever going to happen to Trump and he was probably going to win again.

(sorry for multiple posts; trying to clear up the confusion i caused)

ah, i see. it's about the fact that a lot of people who are diagnosed are then sent home to "quarantine" at home - with their families, who then also get sick. that seems obvious. i would also like to highlight this fun quote:

“As a doctor I would say let’s put tanks in the streets and let’s do a police state,” said Guido Marinoni, the president of the Bergamo doctors’ association. “But the Western world has different realities.”