i thought this was insightful
There's really three phrases you need to know to understand the spread of the pandemic in America:* Prisons* Meat packing plants* Nursing homeshttps://t.co/FaS3u17Rwy1/— Covered Dish People (@doctorow) May 2, 2020
― i am a horse girl (map), Saturday, 2 May 2020 00:49 (four years ago) link
^^ yes, in many ways that summarizes the basic problems with America
― epicenter of the fieri universe (sleeve), Saturday, 2 May 2020 00:54 (four years ago) link
Prisoners and nursing home residents do not "spread the pandemic". They are recipients but are hardly active as vectors.
― A is for (Aimless), Saturday, 2 May 2020 00:58 (four years ago) link
The IHME forecast that Trump has been relying heavily on for his projections has finally been removed from the CDC website's resource page.
The IHME's last projection through August 4th was 72.4k deaths, a number that should be surpassed in 4 days from now (May 5th).
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Saturday, 2 May 2020 01:01 (four years ago) link
Aimless stop quibbling. This basically summarizes what the real problems are in America: the prison-industrial complex, the military-industrial complex, lack of health/elderly care, and big agriculture/factory farming. The virus strips the facade bare.
― epicenter of the fieri universe (sleeve), Saturday, 2 May 2020 01:02 (four years ago) link
1, the thread explains that nursing home workers often work in multiple homes because they don't get paid very much so they are actually active vectors and 2, i don't understand your point? anyway i thought it was insightful in how it links these places together and hints at the forces they have in common.
― i am a horse girl (map), Saturday, 2 May 2020 01:20 (four years ago) link
I would just like to note that I was on the money when I said the ihme forecast had a bunch of problems.
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Saturday, 2 May 2020 01:28 (four years ago) link
We're all only in this position because of some pricks who wanted to eat exotic meat.
― Tsar Bombadil (James Morrison), Saturday, 2 May 2020 01:45 (four years ago) link
Wuhan seafood market may not be source of novel virus spreading globallyAs confirmed cases of a novel virus surge around the world with worrisome speed, all eyes have so far focused on a seafood market in Wuhan, China, as the origin of the outbreak. But a description of the first clinical cases published in The Lancet on Friday challenges that hypothesis.The paper, written by a large group of Chinese researchers from several institutions, offers details about the first 41 hospitalized patients who had confirmed infections with what has been dubbed 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). In the earliest case, the patient became ill on 1 December 2019 and had no reported link to the seafood market, the authors report. “No epidemiological link was found between the first patient and later cases,” they state. Their data also show that, in total, 13 of the 41 cases had no link to the marketplace. “That’s a big number, 13, with no link,” says Daniel Lucey, an infectious disease specialist at Georgetown University.
As confirmed cases of a novel virus surge around the world with worrisome speed, all eyes have so far focused on a seafood market in Wuhan, China, as the origin of the outbreak. But a description of the first clinical cases published in The Lancet on Friday challenges that hypothesis.
The paper, written by a large group of Chinese researchers from several institutions, offers details about the first 41 hospitalized patients who had confirmed infections with what has been dubbed 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). In the earliest case, the patient became ill on 1 December 2019 and had no reported link to the seafood market, the authors report. “No epidemiological link was found between the first patient and later cases,” they state. Their data also show that, in total, 13 of the 41 cases had no link to the marketplace. “That’s a big number, 13, with no link,” says Daniel Lucey, an infectious disease specialist at Georgetown University.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/wuhan-seafood-market-may-not-be-source-novel-virus-spreading-globally
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Saturday, 2 May 2020 02:23 (four years ago) link
If someone wants to say that nursing home residents and employees, meat processing plant employees and prisoners are among the worst treated people in the USA, I'll sign up without hesitation. If someone wants to say that because nursing homes, prisons and meat processing plants are considered as full of expendable people, I'm good with that. Imply that those people may be largely responsible for "the spread of the pandemic" and my objecting to that construction doesn't feel like quibbling to me.
― A is for (Aimless), Saturday, 2 May 2020 03:09 (four years ago) link
our Democratic mayor is lobbying to open hair salons as of Monday.
MOTHERFUCKING WHY?
― genital giant (Neanderthal), Saturday, 2 May 2020 03:10 (four years ago) link
people are very attached to their hair
― A is for (Aimless), Saturday, 2 May 2020 03:13 (four years ago) link
i'd like to make their heads unattached from their body
― genital giant (Neanderthal), Saturday, 2 May 2020 04:10 (four years ago) link
maybe there's a youtube that shows how to do that
(sorry, I'll sign off now)
― A is for (Aimless), Saturday, 2 May 2020 04:26 (four years ago) link
Prisoners and nursing home residents do not "spread the pandemic". They are recipients but are hardly active as vectors.Doctorow does not label members of either of those categories as being responsible for spreading the pandemic, nor being active as vectors, in that thread.
― Elon's musk (sic), Saturday, 2 May 2020 04:30 (four years ago) link
But analysts say that without centralized governance and coordination, the national effort remains a competing coalition of state and local outfits hampered by duplicated work, competition for supplies, siloed pursuits of non-transferable solutions and red tape that leaves some labs with testing backlogs and others with excess capacity.All of which leaves the US without a unified, coherent strategy for testing and contact tracing to contain a virus that does not respect state borders and has already killed more than 60,000 Americans.This is what I mean. The DARPA test could be a gamechanger (ugh sorry) but it needs a functioning bureaucracy. The state-by-state patchwork doesn’t seem like it would be enough.
― Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Saturday, 2 May 2020 11:36 (four years ago) link
These protesters defied the lockdown to gather in central London.Their reckless actions are more likely to prolong lockdown and add to the burden on the NHS. pic.twitter.com/o2maYW3DYW— PoliticsJOE (@PoliticsJOE_UK) May 2, 2020
the 5g/anti-lockdown/anti-vax posse, thankfully at what looks like a small turnout in London. Shouldn't really laugh at them ... actually fuck it loool - "fits together like a glove - wake up people!"
― calzino, Saturday, 2 May 2020 17:29 (four years ago) link
Blonde shoulder bag woman clearly heading towards a major breakdown, 'fits like a glove' guy already there
― all things must pasteurize (Matt #2), Saturday, 2 May 2020 17:44 (four years ago) link
It’ll be like nazi Germany but dystopian
― Microbes oft teem (wins), Saturday, 2 May 2020 17:56 (four years ago) link
Nazi Germany without the good points.
― The Corbynite Maneuver (Tom D.), Saturday, 2 May 2020 18:01 (four years ago) link
Future nazi : need to sort out these millions of corpses in our newly conquered leopardsprawn, it's like a bloody nazi dystopia round here!
― calzino, Saturday, 2 May 2020 18:22 (four years ago) link
shit like this is why I won't give the "you have to cut them slack, they're scared and struggling" defense any time of day:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/oklahoma-city-ends-face-mask-rule-shoppers-after-store-employees-n1198736?cid=sm_npd_nn_fb_ma
― genital giant (Neanderthal), Saturday, 2 May 2020 23:46 (four years ago) link
Once again, it's a real shame that it won't be just these "muh freedom!" assholes who die.
― but also fuck you (unperson), Saturday, 2 May 2020 23:48 (four years ago) link
between the example above and the horrible shitstain of a human who carried the sign reading "ARBEIT MACHT FREI, JB", directed towards the Jewish governor of Illinois, there are a lot of people I want flayed or drawn and quartered rn.
― genital giant (Neanderthal), Saturday, 2 May 2020 23:57 (four years ago) link
Russia's either peaking or, more likely, they're going to end up right behind the US in caseload.
http://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/russia/
I was expressing skepticism about their numbers a few weeks ago; I guess it was just a matter a time, although the delay still seems odd.
― clemenza, Sunday, 3 May 2020 04:06 (four years ago) link
Good article on how the administration, 538, even Fauci leaned too hard on overly optimistic models such as the IHME until this past week to encourage quarantine breaking:
The IMHE model, in particular, has come under increasing criticism — “It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious-disease epidemiology field think is well suited,” Harvard’s Marc Lipsitch told Stat News. That’s especially true after a paper found that on 70 percent of days, the death count fell outside the IMHE’s 95 percent confidence interval (this sounds wonky, but it means that the model gave a range it expected to contain 95 percent of all possible outcomes, and only 30 percent of real outcomes actually fell within it). But in part because it made a name for itself early in the epidemic, IMHE remains a trusted name in the media (on the FiveThirtyEight podcast last week, Nate Silver interviewed its main author and offered praise for the model) and, in fact, its projections have ticked back up recently, though just by a few ticks, with a present estimate of 72,433 deaths by August 4. If the country stays on Wednesday’s pace, it will hit that number by May 4.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/05/what-the-coronavirus-models-cant-see.html
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Sunday, 3 May 2020 13:42 (four years ago) link
As President Trump presses for states to reopen their economies, his administration is [Removed Illegal Link] from coronavirus over the next several weeks, reaching about 3,000 daily deaths on June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times, nearly double from the current level of about 1,750.The projections, based on modeling by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and pulled together in chart form by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases now.
The projections, based on modeling by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and pulled together in chart form by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases now.
― mookieproof, Monday, 4 May 2020 16:18 (four years ago) link
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/coronavirus-updates.html#link-7b42d0f5
They'll deny, and then once we get there say "who could've known?"
― Mario Meatwagon (Moodles), Monday, 4 May 2020 16:25 (four years ago) link
buried in that article is the link to the actual report, which is interesting.
here's the chart where the " reaching about 3,000 daily deaths on June 1" comes from:
https://i.imgur.com/8kOaAhq.png
― let me be your friend on the other end! (Karl Malone), Monday, 4 May 2020 17:38 (four years ago) link
sure would be nice to know why they think the plateau is going to change back into an incline. i assume it's because of the re-openings, but of course as moodles said, they'll just deny the entire thing exists for a while. transparency
― let me be your friend on the other end! (Karl Malone), Monday, 4 May 2020 17:40 (four years ago) link
considering that leaked to press, i'll just assume the actual likely outcome is much more dire
― Fuck the NRA (ulysses), Monday, 4 May 2020 17:44 (four years ago) link
People gonna die twice
― genital giant (Neanderthal), Monday, 4 May 2020 17:46 (four years ago) link
the range of outcomes on there is pretty dire already. the mean projection (the red line) is 3,000 deaths a day, but the 25-75% confidence range (the red zone) goes all the way up to about 8K daily deaths on the other side, it also goes down to 750 deaths a day.
translated:
if you run their model a million times:
50% of the time, the deaths exceed 3K per day. the other 50% they're less than 3K a day. 25% of the time, the deaths exceed 8K per day. the other 75% of the time they're less than 8K per day.25% of the time, the deaths are less than 750 per day. the other 75% of the time they're more than 750 per day.
sorry if that's obvious, but there's a ton of info packed in those kinds of charts and i'm always worried people are missing it. but basically THAT model is already very, very dire.
hopefully that's just some mid-tier internal model that is not actually very accurate? it's tough to know with the trump administration
― let me be your friend on the other end! (Karl Malone), Monday, 4 May 2020 17:55 (four years ago) link
My optimistic take: Unless the CDC data is incorporating additional sources not found in any of the public data repositories, I don't think the current "plateau" is as flat/horizontal as their model suggests (I'm showing USA reported deaths trending ~-9% over past 2 weeks).
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Monday, 4 May 2020 17:57 (four years ago) link
Yeah, the range on that chart is pretty huge, tells me they don't have much of a clue.
However, if they really think a big spike tied to re-opening is likely, that's kind of a big deal. Not sure how they explain that one away, but they'll figure out a way.
― Mario Meatwagon (Moodles), Monday, 4 May 2020 17:58 (four years ago) link
xp: Lockdown has been successful in NY and NJ, states hit early with a lot of seeding events from travelers from Europe and high public transit use...
Elsewhere in the country, its a different story. 2 months of half-assed mitigation that flattened the curve but didn't offer prospects for containment by less invasive public health measures.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EXLboksU8AMYEIC?format=jpg
― speaking moistly (Sanpaku), Monday, 4 May 2020 18:17 (four years ago) link
This tweet seems like not the right way to think about it? Seems more like the original models were terrible and they redid them with a drastic upward shift? I wouldn't expect them to stay 97 percent range if actual major reworking was done to shift upwards.
The CDC projection for 3,000 deaths a day is getting a lot of attention, as it should. But that is a 50th percentile projection. To date, actual deaths have ranged north of the 97th percentile. The 97th percentile projection for June 1 is 15,000 deaths per day. (1/2) https://t.co/TLNvzR7Ldj— David Wallace-Wells (@dwallacewells) May 4, 2020
― genital giant (Neanderthal), Monday, 4 May 2020 18:35 (four years ago) link
he's used to worst-case thinking cause his primary beat is climate change
― sleight return (voodoo chili), Monday, 4 May 2020 18:55 (four years ago) link
It was the persistence of 97th percentile results that clued them in that their models had to be off. Assuming that 97th percentile results are somehow baked into the viral results, regardless of the model, is ass-backwards.
― A is for (Aimless), Monday, 4 May 2020 19:57 (four years ago) link
Lot of news in the past few days about how the IMHE model has been wrong. So what are the other models?
― Nhex, Monday, 4 May 2020 20:20 (four years ago) link
Not a fan of Nate Silver (a beef that has existed since his days at BaseballProspectus), but 538 has collected a half-dozen here:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Monday, 4 May 2020 20:24 (four years ago) link
― A is for (Aimless), Monday, May 4, 2020 3:57 PM bookmarkflaglink
yeah, being reactive is the complete opposite of a good model
― genital giant (Neanderthal), Monday, 4 May 2020 20:25 (four years ago) link
IMHE just revised model to say 135k dead
― akm, Monday, 4 May 2020 20:50 (four years ago) link
lol nbd, just almost double the prediction
― genital giant (Neanderthal), Monday, 4 May 2020 20:59 (four years ago) link
is this good news?
https://www.ibtimes.sg/scientists-find-human-antibody-47d11-that-neutralizes-covid-19-virus-infecting-living-cells-44388
― genital giant (Neanderthal), Monday, 4 May 2020 22:34 (four years ago) link
It provides a promising avenue for further research, which is always a welcome development.
― A is for (Aimless), Monday, 4 May 2020 22:38 (four years ago) link
Especially for researchers
― Non, je ned raggette rien (onimo), Monday, 4 May 2020 23:32 (four years ago) link
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavirus/frances-patient-zero-died-of-coronavirus-in-december-doctor-says-samples-from-patients-with-flu-like-symptoms-tested-positive/ar-BB13Aj18
Paris doctor confirms COVID-19 presence Dec. 27th, 2019, which is 4 days before the first WHO-reported case in China.
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Tuesday, 5 May 2020 02:52 (four years ago) link
Quoted in full https://pressthink.org/2020/05/the-plan-is-to-have-no-plan/
The plan is to have no plan, to let daily deaths between and one and three thousand become a normal thing, and then to create massive confusion about who is responsible — by telling the governors they’re in charge without doing what only the federal government can do, by fighting with the press when it shows up to be briefed or to ask questions, by fixing blame for the virus on China or some other foreign element, and by “flooding the zone with shit,” Steve Bannon’s phrase for overwhelming the system with disinformation, distraction, and denial, which boosts what economists call “search costs” for reliable intelligence. Stated another way, the plan is to default on public problem solving, and then prevent the public from understanding the consequences of that default. To succeed this will require one of the biggest propaganda and freedom of information fights in U.S. history, the execution of which will, I think, consume the president’s re-election campaign. So much has already been made public that the standard script for a White House cover up (worse than the crime…) won’t apply. Instead, everything will ride on the manufacture of confusion. The press won’t be able to “expose” the plot because it will all happen in stark daylight. The facts will be known, and simultaneously inconceivable. “The plan is to have no plan” is not a strategy, really. Nor would I call it a policy. It has a kind of logic to it, but this is different from saying it has a design— or a designer. Meaning: I do not want to be too conspiratorial about this. To wing it without a plan is merely the best this government can do, given who heads the table. The manufacture of confusion is just the ruins of Trump’s personality meeting the powers of the presidency. There is no genius there, only a damaged human being playing havoc with our lives.
Stated another way, the plan is to default on public problem solving, and then prevent the public from understanding the consequences of that default. To succeed this will require one of the biggest propaganda and freedom of information fights in U.S. history, the execution of which will, I think, consume the president’s re-election campaign. So much has already been made public that the standard script for a White House cover up (worse than the crime…) won’t apply. Instead, everything will ride on the manufacture of confusion. The press won’t be able to “expose” the plot because it will all happen in stark daylight. The facts will be known, and simultaneously inconceivable.
“The plan is to have no plan” is not a strategy, really. Nor would I call it a policy. It has a kind of logic to it, but this is different from saying it has a design— or a designer. Meaning: I do not want to be too conspiratorial about this. To wing it without a plan is merely the best this government can do, given who heads the table. The manufacture of confusion is just the ruins of Trump’s personality meeting the powers of the presidency. There is no genius there, only a damaged human being playing havoc with our lives.
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Tuesday, 5 May 2020 03:21 (four years ago) link