outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

Future nazi : need to sort out these millions of corpses in our newly conquered leopardsprawn, it's like a bloody nazi dystopia round here!

shit like this is why I won't give the "you have to cut them slack, they're scared and struggling" defense any time of day:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/oklahoma-city-ends-face-mask-rule-shoppers-after-store-employees-n1198736?cid=sm_npd_nn_fb_ma

Once again, it's a real shame that it won't be just these "muh freedom!" assholes who die.

between the example above and the horrible shitstain of a human who carried the sign reading "ARBEIT MACHT FREI, JB", directed towards the Jewish governor of Illinois, there are a lot of people I want flayed or drawn and quartered rn.

Russia's either peaking or, more likely, they're going to end up right behind the US in caseload.

http://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/russia/

I was expressing skepticism about their numbers a few weeks ago; I guess it was just a matter a time, although the delay still seems odd.

Good article on how the administration, 538, even Fauci leaned too hard on overly optimistic models such as the IHME until this past week to encourage quarantine breaking:

The IMHE model, in particular, has come under increasing criticism — “It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious-disease epidemiology field think is well suited,” Harvard’s Marc Lipsitch told Stat News. That’s especially true after a paper found that on 70 percent of days, the death count fell outside the IMHE’s 95 percent confidence interval (this sounds wonky, but it means that the model gave a range it expected to contain 95 percent of all possible outcomes, and only 30 percent of real outcomes actually fell within it). But in part because it made a name for itself early in the epidemic, IMHE remains a trusted name in the media (on the FiveThirtyEight podcast last week, Nate Silver interviewed its main author and offered praise for the model) and, in fact, its projections have ticked back up recently, though just by a few ticks, with a present estimate of 72,433 deaths by August 4. If the country stays on Wednesday’s pace, it will hit that number by May 4.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/05/what-the-coronavirus-models-cant-see.html

As President Trump presses for states to reopen their economies, his administration is [Removed Illegal Link] from coronavirus over the next several weeks, reaching about 3,000 daily deaths on June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times, nearly double from the current level of about 1,750.

The projections, based on modeling by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and pulled together in chart form by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases now.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/coronavirus-updates.html#link-7b42d0f5

They'll deny, and then once we get there say "who could've known?"

buried in that article is the link to the actual report, which is interesting.

here's the chart where the " reaching about 3,000 daily deaths on June 1" comes from:

https://i.imgur.com/8kOaAhq.png

sure would be nice to know why they think the plateau is going to change back into an incline. i assume it's because of the re-openings, but of course as moodles said, they'll just deny the entire thing exists for a while. transparency

considering that leaked to press, i'll just assume the actual likely outcome is much more dire

People gonna die twice

the range of outcomes on there is pretty dire already. the mean projection (the red line) is 3,000 deaths a day, but the 25-75% confidence range (the red zone) goes all the way up to about 8K daily deaths on the other side, it also goes down to 750 deaths a day.

translated:

if you run their model a million times:

50% of the time, the deaths exceed 3K per day. the other 50% they're less than 3K a day.
25% of the time, the deaths exceed 8K per day. the other 75% of the time they're less than 8K per day.
25% of the time, the deaths are less than 750 per day. the other 75% of the time they're more than 750 per day.

sorry if that's obvious, but there's a ton of info packed in those kinds of charts and i'm always worried people are missing it. but basically THAT model is already very, very dire.

hopefully that's just some mid-tier internal model that is not actually very accurate? it's tough to know with the trump administration

My optimistic take: Unless the CDC data is incorporating additional sources not found in any of the public data repositories, I don't think the current "plateau" is as flat/horizontal as their model suggests (I'm showing USA reported deaths trending ~-9% over past 2 weeks).

Yeah, the range on that chart is pretty huge, tells me they don't have much of a clue.

However, if they really think a big spike tied to re-opening is likely, that's kind of a big deal. Not sure how they explain that one away, but they'll figure out a way.

xp: Lockdown has been successful in NY and NJ, states hit early with a lot of seeding events from travelers from Europe and high public transit use...

Elsewhere in the country, its a different story. 2 months of half-assed mitigation that flattened the curve but didn't offer prospects for containment by less invasive public health measures.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EXLboksU8AMYEIC?format=jpg

This tweet seems like not the right way to think about it? Seems more like the original models were terrible and they redid them with a drastic upward shift? I wouldn't expect them to stay 97 percent range if actual major reworking was done to shift upwards.

The CDC projection for 3,000 deaths a day is getting a lot of attention, as it should. But that is a 50th percentile projection. To date, actual deaths have ranged north of the 97th percentile. The 97th percentile projection for June 1 is 15,000 deaths per day. (1/2) https://t.co/TLNvzR7Ldj

— David Wallace-Wells (@dwallacewells) May 4, 2020

he's used to worst-case thinking cause his primary beat is climate change

It was the persistence of 97th percentile results that clued them in that their models had to be off. Assuming that 97th percentile results are somehow baked into the viral results, regardless of the model, is ass-backwards.

Lot of news in the past few days about how the IMHE model has been wrong. So what are the other models?

Not a fan of Nate Silver (a beef that has existed since his days at BaseballProspectus), but 538 has collected a half-dozen here:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/

It was the persistence of 97th percentile results that clued them in that their models had to be off. Assuming that 97th percentile results are somehow baked into the viral results, regardless of the model, is ass-backwards.

― A is for (Aimless), Monday, May 4, 2020 3:57 PM bookmarkflaglink

yeah, being reactive is the complete opposite of a good model

IMHE just revised model to say 135k dead

lol nbd, just almost double the prediction

is this good news?

https://www.ibtimes.sg/scientists-find-human-antibody-47d11-that-neutralizes-covid-19-virus-infecting-living-cells-44388

It provides a promising avenue for further research, which is always a welcome development.

Especially for researchers

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavirus/frances-patient-zero-died-of-coronavirus-in-december-doctor-says-samples-from-patients-with-flu-like-symptoms-tested-positive/ar-BB13Aj18

Paris doctor confirms COVID-19 presence Dec. 27th, 2019, which is 4 days before the first WHO-reported case in China.

Quoted in full https://pressthink.org/2020/05/the-plan-is-to-have-no-plan/

The plan is to have no plan, to let daily deaths between and one and three thousand become a normal thing, and then to create massive confusion about who is responsible — by telling the governors they’re in charge without doing what only the federal government can do, by fighting with the press when it shows up to be briefed or to ask questions, by fixing blame for the virus on China or some other foreign element, and by “flooding the zone with shit,” Steve Bannon’s phrase for overwhelming the system with disinformation, distraction, and denial, which boosts what economists call “search costs” for reliable intelligence.

Stated another way, the plan is to default on public problem solving, and then prevent the public from understanding the consequences of that default. To succeed this will require one of the biggest propaganda and freedom of information fights in U.S. history, the execution of which will, I think, consume the president’s re-election campaign. So much has already been made public that the standard script for a White House cover up (worse than the crime…) won’t apply. Instead, everything will ride on the manufacture of confusion. The press won’t be able to “expose” the plot because it will all happen in stark daylight. The facts will be known, and simultaneously inconceivable.

“The plan is to have no plan” is not a strategy, really. Nor would I call it a policy. It has a kind of logic to it, but this is different from saying it has a design— or a designer. Meaning: I do not want to be too conspiratorial about this. To wing it without a plan is merely the best this government can do, given who heads the table. The manufacture of confusion is just the ruins of Trump’s personality meeting the powers of the presidency. There is no genius there, only a damaged human being playing havoc with our lives.

Winston, first dog with Covid-19, completely fine.
https://boston.cbslocal.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3859903/2020/05/dog2.jpg

Kerala (pop 35 million) was first in India to get COVID. For past 2 days they have no new cases. The Communist controlled state has implemented “test, trace, isolate, support” & delivers free food & support to homes. In fascist controlled Indian states pandemic continues to grow.

— a$hok (@broseph_stalin) May 5, 2020

what happens in the commie nazi states?

huh, he's actually learned something?

"I used to say 65k and now I’m saying 80 or 90 and it goes up and it goes up rapidly"

Trump: That’s one of the reasons we’re successful, if you call losing 80k-90k people successful
Bret: That number has changed Mr. President. You said 60
Trump: I used to say 65k and now I’m saying 80 or 90 and it goes up and it goes up rapidly pic.twitter.com/v4FbbygF5Q

— Acyn Torabi (@Acyn) May 3, 2020

If u call losing successful
Im a winner

things are gonna change, i can feel it

if assholes could fly this place would be an airport

a deep cut for the true heads:

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Screen-Shot-2020-05-05-at-9.14.07-AM.png

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/05/05/calibration-and-recalibration-and-more-recalibration-ihme-forecasts-by-publication-date/

the IHME model is garbage. we shouldn't have trusted it a month ago, and we shouldn't trust it now.

Just spent about 48 hours in the hospital due to a low platelet count -- basically, it's when chemo turns you into a bleeder in very frightening fashion. And my count isn't too high now, either. :/

I was given the swab test, am COVID negative.

ugh, get better Morbs :(

morbs <3

sounds hard and unpleasant. wish you the best morbs

Morbs glad you’re on the other side. Did you get any sleep?

Bon courage, Morbs. <3

that sounds shitty, and also i'm glad you tested negative. be well morbs

Fuck, that's scary, hope you are ok

Yikes — take care, Morbs.

Did you get any sleep?

That's always a fun morning question from the nurse when they've been waking you up every 2 hours to measure your vital signs.

(I can't even sleep when I know they're gonna do that.)