outbreak! (ebola, sars, coronavirus, etc)

They aren’t there, they’re working from home.

that didn't stop the brave clearwater gym protesters

I thought this was a good overview of what we currently know about where risks of transmission are highest:

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

TLDR: Transmission through the air in an enclosed space is a high risk. Just breathing the same air can do it if you spend enough time there. Sneezing or coughing increases the risk significantly.

it seems good and people i trust are sharing it but the quillette acknowledgement at the end makes me suspicious

lol

You could skip the article and just read the studies he cites (ie follow the links).

For example, the Korean workplace study:
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/8/20-1274_article

https://www.9news.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/cafe-in-castle-rock-endangering-the-lives-of-community-for-reopening-despite-public-health-order-polis-office-says/73-8a77b8f4-6b5b-48cd-809b-1f86f36a4dc0

On Sunday, one of the restaurant's customers said she and her family waited three hours to get their meals.
"I’m here to support this because I love the fact that we all have choices," Holly Burrell said. "That’s what being an American is about."

idiotic individualism>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>rugged individualism

if only it were only the people being self-aggrandizing idiots that would get sick

maybe we can tell them they can camp in these sealed bubbles to protest for a month and just infect them every day

Fauci's ready to remove his muzzle if necessary:

BREAKING: Dr. Anthony Fauci tells me he will warn the Senate on Tuesday that Americans will face "needless suffering and death" if the country opens up prematurely. https://t.co/3d2D0lu6c2

— Sheryl Gay Stolberg (@SherylNYT) May 12, 2020

I thought this was probably going to happen anyway in the Senate? Main reason it didn't happen in the House was probably taking away more Dem opportunities to talk shit, rightfully

navajos being hit especially hard

https://www.cbsnews.com/video/coronavirus-in-navajo

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/05/12/nation/heres-what-fauci-said-about-college-students-returning-campus-fall/

Fauci continued: “If this were a situation where you had a vaccine, that would really be the end of issue in positive way. But as I mentioned in my opening remarks, even at the top speed we’re going, we don’t see a vaccine playing in the ability of individuals to get back to school this term.”

It blows me away that people are being "asked" to go back to work now, but college students & faculty are not even going to go back in the fall. I mean, I agree with the latter! But it's criminal that we're applying one standard to universities and another to, well, everything else.

but Euler, the children are our future

arrrrgh

Interesting metric - and note the actual numbers because the logarithmic scale is misleading

Fascinating discussion on Greek #COVID19 briefing about testing. Apparently, one of the more useful measures is not "tests per million", but "tests per case" - it is a measure that reveals the true aggressiveness of testing. Never mentioned in the UK. I wonder why. Oh. pic.twitter.com/5h40NrASNW

— Alex Andreou (@sturdyAlex) May 12, 2020

that's a good point!

my state is at almost exactly 6 tests per case. hooray!

and also a breakdown of the symptomatic vs asymptomatic test positives.

the children are our future

So, children harbor (and presumably transmit) virus at the same levels as older persons. They just only rarely (< 0.1%) go into full ARDS or heart attack/stroke. And much of the adult workforce can't return if there's no school or daycare.

One solution could be month long summer camps, in which all children are expected to be exposed, but they can't return with the virus to their homes or more vulnerable populations before their disease resolves. Like chickenpox parties, but without the adult immunity. But the sales pitch is beyond me. "Yes, ma'am, we expect the risk of your child dying is under 1 in 1000, and for younger camp staff its less than 1 in 500, but they'd face the same risk or worse if this happens in your communities." I can't make that sound like a noble sacrifice...

Or maybe we should just open unsanitized ball pits but only for families willing to sequester (and face the much higher risk for parents) for 2+ weeks.

Colleges, with tight living spaces in dormitories, petri-dish lecture halls, etc are an easier sell, because at least everyone there is (presumably) a consenting adult...

What a fun camp.

Can't wait to pitch that to my 13-yr-olds. :P

truly god tier galaxy brain poster. hats off to dr sanpaku. death camps for kids to fight a disease that kills like 1% of people who get it

he’s not saying we wouldn’t get our hair mussed

1% of kids will die, but 99% of kids suck, so...I don't know, math is hard.

I agree you do suck

Breaking: Los Angeles County’s stay-at-home orders will “with all certainty” be extended for the next three months, Los Angeles County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer acknowledged during a Board of Supervisors meeting on Tuesday https://t.co/jswRcZ5FkS

— Los Angeles Times (@latimes) May 12, 2020

Wow, good luck trying to get Los Angelenos to stay home all summer.

Getting full compliance might be impossible, but still better than throwing in the towel and telling everyone to go do their own thing.

fuck

Interesting to click through to that article and see that it's already been revised to "through July", fwiw.

You guys are ever eager to label me. But how do you save lives yet open schools? Any place where people (of any age) congregate is a hub for transmission, and every policy should be compared to the muddle through/herd immunity policy we're stumbling towards.

Given the US and UK didn't have the political will/popular compliance for effective containment (as in Taiwan or South Korea), or for measures to expose only those at low risk to aid mitigation, it looks like "muddle-through/herd immunity/1% die" will be the default. And all kids in school will get exposed, and they'll transmit it to their parents and grandparents, and this goes on and on (for as Laurie Garrett estimates 36 months).

where did you get your degree in epidemiology?

extend the new york stay at home order pls

sanpaku - an epidemiologist quoted in the nytimes reckons that by july 2022 the US will only be halfway to herd immunity. he's done two papers on these sorts of questions:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/health/coronavirus-pandemic-curve-scenarios.html

The math for population level epidemiology is not particularly complex. Straightforward differential equations. But one has to make huge assumptions about social distancing compliance so its not terribly predictive. It isn't a granular simulation of subpopulations that have to interact closely, like schoolchildren, their teachers and parents.

What I'd probably propose to local leaders is, fine, open schools in late August, but expect everyone in schooled households to be exposed, and many to get ill. That month-long window is when we try to offer essential workers with children at home to get paid furlough, especially those working at skilled nursing facilities or with other contact with more vulnerable populations. Subsidized food delivery for children's parents/caretakers. No visits to grandma during the first month of school. Etc. One just assumes that during the first month of children's schooling, all the children, their parents, and anyone else in those households is exposed, infected, and potentially infectious even if asymptomatic.

Bababooey

The problem with complex solutions is that every additional complexity reduces the chances that it will work irl.

what do you think the "local leaders" will say to you?

"who are you?"

"sir, this is a wendy's"

Some good news: Both daily new cases & daily fatalities are trending significantly down (~-15%) week over week. The first wave peaked around 4/14-4/15 and is now definitively dropping off nearly a month later.

worldwide?

Ya, was going to ask for clarification myself. When we're dropping stats, can we please add which country/region we're talking about?

Sorry, that was USA figures only.

something to keep in mind with the US figures is that there's two very separate things going on in the new york region vs rest of the country.

https://i.imgur.com/Sy0J6K1.png

Yeah, it would be interesting to isolate the tri-state region and then the rest of the USA. IIRC, the 2nd & 3rd worst hit states are NJ/CT.

more silver linings:

NYC breaks record: 58 straight days with no pedestrian deaths https://t.co/NGEzjuBSgR pic.twitter.com/UobXtHoEGN

— 1010 WINS (@1010WINS) May 13, 2020

I saw maybe yesterday that the confirmed cases in IL from the day before were down...and now I see today that the confirmed cases from yesterday jumped like 4x from the day we saw a dip.

(I'm assuming that's largely a result of increased testing, but still.)