Joe Biden, Senator from Citibank (oops, DELAWARE), to Run for President

Don't ever focus on national polls.

― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 13 May 2020 bookmarkflaglink

What's the reasoning for this?

presidential elections are won state by state, is i think what Alfred’s referring to?

Fair enough although I'd like to think Trump dropping below a certain % in a national poll would mean he is in trouble.

What Tracer said.

At least until 2016, I think Nate Silver always said that national polls at a certain point were very hard to overturn--that if you had even a three or four point lead you were going to win, because the few states that might have been closer weren't all going to suddenly turn against you in variance with the other states, that they tended to move up and down more or less in waves. Something like that.

Which of course is exactly what happened in 2016, the thing he said doesn't happen, so maybe he's changed his mind.

Sort of weird to pull out Silver in particular on this, since he was the one who right up to Election Day was saying it was quite close and Trump had a real chance; a lot of people thought Clinton was sure to win. And of course Clinton *didn't* have a three or four point national edge; she had a two-point national edge. If she'd had a three or four point national lead she would have won the election.

Right--that's what I meant by "at a certain point," at a threshold of three points or so. During the two Obama elections, he'd have a three-point lead and there'd be a lot of hand-wringing on the Democratic side because a number of states were inside that, maybe one or two points, and Silver would say that all those states are not going to march in lockstep and move in the other direction if the national polls stay around 3%; in that instance, he was saying the national lead was more instructive than state-by-state.

In 2016, you're right--he put Trump at around 30% when most everyone else had him at 5% or less. And the difference was between the perceived 3 or 4% and the actual 2%. That seems to be the gray area in there where national polls become less meaningful.

I was trying to look up a quote from Silver and found this:

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/03/can-you-still-trust-nate-silver/605521/

He seems to have fallen out of favour, but his caution in 2016 was way ahead of virtually everyone else.

NOMINATE SOMEONE ELSE

agree

Have people ever liked the eventual Democratic nominee, besides maybe Obama? Actual question.

I don't believe so, and I have been involved in this stuff pretty deeply my whole life bc of family stuff. Dukakis? Blecch. Clinton, whatever. Gore? Ugh. Only Obama actually moved people.

Clinton actually moved people, too.

Coincidentally... he and Obama won and all the people no one gave a fuck about lost. Hmmmmmmmm

HMMMMMMMMM

This is a bit of a tricky question because "people" -- what people? Decades old memories of what "people" were excited about? Who the f knows. I know that many people in my peer group did not become politically motivated to give more than a shred of 1 shit until Obama came along.

I did intentionally leave out any modifiers specifying which people. I figured it would be more revealing of the assumptions ilxors have about who counts as "people"

tbh i don't appreciate having my opinion squeezed like that. this thread continues to make me feel like shit :( why am i still here

I am older than a lot of people here and I was all in for Mike Dukakis. Hell, I still am.

And I busted my ass going door to door for John Kerry. And I am still mad about what was done to him, and what the fact that it worked has done to politics.

I'm sorry Lechera. You're right that I shouldn't do that. I guess my assumption about "who counts as people" doesn't include posters on the Biden thread. I have revealed myself to myself and it is, as ever, unpretty.

the only person I've ever supported whole heartedly in a primary who then won was Obama. I've backed losers every other time (bradley, brown, dean, warren)

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/what-74-former-biden-staffers-think-about-tara-reades-allegations

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/04/joe-biden-sexual-assault-unnecessary-witnesses.html

He was not on a list of “creepy” male senators that female staffers told each other to avoid in the elevators on Capitol Hill.

is this list public?

Let's rank them.

I wish Biden and his defenders wouldn't lean so much on the fact that he championed legislation that benefited women. You can do that and still commit sexual assault.

for example, uh, Kavanaugh

Biden pledges not to pardon Trump

Former Vice President Joe Biden vowed Thursday that, if elected to the White House in November, he would not use his new executive powers to pardon President Donald Trump of any potential crimes.

The pledge from the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee came during a virtual town hall on MSNBC, when Biden was asked by a voter whether he would be willing to commit “to not pulling a President Ford” and pardoning Trump “under the pretense of healing the nation.”

He was not on a list of “creepy” male senators that female staffers told each other to avoid in the elevators on Capitol Hill.

I think a lot of the coverage of Reade is based on in-the-know reporters having a mental list of who all the senate creeps were and Biden not being on it.

Shitty Congressional Men

They could put together a calendar of them and sell it for charity.

Biden acted like a hideous creep to women right out in public, on camera, alll the time. No need to put him on a secret whisperlist of creeps.

The knives are out for Tara Reade.

Remember, the Washington press likes Joe Biden. A lot. They hated Hillary Clinton (and she hated them), and they thought Trump was a scamp and a rascal. But now they hate Trump, even if they're too cowardly to really attack him (with rare exceptions), and they're remembering how much they've always liked ol' Joe.

the DNC has gone full "good dude backed hard"

Her credit score of 580 proves that she's lying

Trump's international failures have cleared a path for Cuba to join the UN Human Rights Council. This would betray Cuba's political prisoners and further undermine U.S. diplomacy. As President, I will lead by empowering the Cuban people and defending human rights.

— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) May 15, 2020

Joe Biden sucks for many reasons.

🤨

It should be embarrassing that he's going to debase himself like this and Florida Cubans are still going to vote 2:1 for Trump.

It’s good to know Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch are just a bunch of frauds according to noted internet poster milo

So, uh, what’s the incarceration situation like comparing the US (on the HRC until last year) and Cuba? Or Saudi Arabia (also a member until last year) and Cuba?

You can go ahead and tell us, you have all the answers

doesn’t the US have the highest incarceration rate in the world?[citation needed]

We have a quarter of the world’s prisoners, so man I hope so

Debasing yourself for Joe Biden is even more embarrassing than Joe Biden debasing himself for Florida reactionaries.

At least he could theoretically get something out of it.

Who says I don’t get anything out of winding you up?

"I'm just trolling you" I insist as I slowly shrink and transform into a corncob

you have to debase yourself for Florida reactionaries every time you step into Florida tbf

I’m just out of practice. You’ve been trolling US politics threads for at least a couple of years at this point, let me get some reps in

ok hands up if you aren't trolling

Go for it, silby.

I guess I was trolling just now tbf