but i don't know, it seems like common sense to me.
and also, the precise amount of rain that's going to fall tomorrow in chicago is unknown. but i know clouds will be rolling in and that i better plan my anniversary activities in the morning, not in the afternoon. i don't know with perfect precision, but i am still able to come to an informed decision using the information i have.
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 27 May 2020 19:39 (three years ago) link
Totally, just if people think that there is a 70% chance (while wearing a mask!) they will get COVID from any unmasked infected people they come across, it may drive them to be more hostile toward the unmasked.
― DJI, Wednesday, 27 May 2020 19:42 (three years ago) link
yeah, that's probably true. i have absolutely no sympathy for that kind of thinking, though. learning more about the precise efficacy of wearing a mask may drive them to worse behavior, it may be true. but ime people who are being hostile toward mask-wearers have a whole bunch of factors influencing their decision-making, and the actual efficacy of the mask is, counterintuitively, extremely low on the list
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 27 May 2020 19:47 (three years ago) link
like, i just instantly flashback to some internet derp from the early 2010s commenting "global warming is a hoax. they can't predict the weather tomorrow, you're telling me they can predict the weather in 50 years? get outta here". no amount of more precise information is going to fix their problem. they start with what they want - to not change anything or be inconvenienced in any way - than work their way backward to try to throw doubt on anything that suggests otherwise. you can address the mask efficacy question, scientifically, but by the time you do they'll be on to the next dumb thing
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 27 May 2020 19:49 (three years ago) link
Not to invite a roasting but I was worried about hostility toward the unmasked.
― DJI, Wednesday, 27 May 2020 19:59 (three years ago) link
oh, whoops! i misread your post to say "hostility toward the masked", my bad
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 27 May 2020 20:02 (three years ago) link
Both are bad!
― DJI, Wednesday, 27 May 2020 20:03 (three years ago) link
The efficacy of face masks against the spread of COVID-19 is unknown.
hmm is this really true?
― sleeve, Wednesday, May 27, 2020 3:18 PM (forty-two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink
empirically, the truth is we don’t know exactly and will probably never know. I can be as dogmatic as anyone about the importance of randomized trials when it comes to medications I prescribe, but up till now it has been more or less impossible to design a study on mask-wearing that will really answer the question we want to know, which is whether wearing masks reduces risk of transmission of [viral illness of interest]. I read the major trials a few weeks ago because, like you and karl, I was frustrated by the obstinacy of people whose opinions I respect when it comes to medical evidence who insisted that mask-wearing not be compelled in the absence of convincing evidence in its favor. the trials are mostly small, and the patients in the mask-wearing arms rarely actually wore the masks; not surprisingly, it has been difficult to show statistically a clear effect. this also gets at the deeper issue of what question randomized trials actually test, which even many doctors have difficulty grasping: these studies attempted to probe the effects of recommending mask-wearing; it is much more challenging to study the effects of actually wearing a mask. it is evident that, in more normal times, the benefits of recommending that people with the flu or another viral illness wear masks to protect family members (or vice versa) are likely marginal. what is worth debating is whether those data are necessarily generalizable to our current setting, when the topic of infectious disease and its spread is almost unavoidable, and the number of people who potentially stand to benefit is much greater. common sense, and basic knowledge of droplet kinetics, dictate that wearing masks most likely provides a small benefit that, considered at the scale of all of american society, probably translates to many lives saved.
― k3vin k., Wednesday, 27 May 2020 20:41 (three years ago) link
the benefits of recommending that people with the flu or another viral illness wear masks to protect family members (or vice versa) are likely marginal.
― Mordy, Wednesday, 27 May 2020 21:35 (three years ago) link
Medical lab tech Katie Corley coughed on two petri dishes, one while wearing a mask, and one without a mask. (From her public FB post.) pic.twitter.com/Ez65r2lE2r— Sophie Rapp (@SophieSRapp) May 25, 2020
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EY0zg0XU0AAn5RJ?format=jpg&name=small
― I bless Claire Danes down in Africa (Ye Mad Puffin), Wednesday, 27 May 2020 23:16 (three years ago) link
Yes but please let's keep obsessing about whether an imperfectly worn mask is better than nothing, thxbye
― I bless Claire Danes down in Africa (Ye Mad Puffin), Wednesday, 27 May 2020 23:18 (three years ago) link
so that's confirmed then?
― I am a free. I am not man. A number. (Neanderthal), Wednesday, 27 May 2020 23:21 (three years ago) link
bacteria and viruses are different things
― Rik Waller-Bridge (jim in vancouver), Wednesday, 27 May 2020 23:23 (three years ago) link
yes, and she addressed this, because she is a medical tech
1. I used a cloth mask I made myself with disposable lab coat material.2. I used blood agar.3. The plate on the right looks "old" or "stale" because of the growth. Some of the organisms on this plate are alpha hemolytic, meaning they partially hemolyze blood. The agar itself is made with 5% sheep's blood, so when it's partially hemolyzed, it turns a dark green color.4. As for the growth, it's mostly viridans strep, staph species (not staph aureus), neisseria species, and corynebacterium. Pretty normal oral flora.5. I realize that viruses are 1,000 times smaller than bacteria. The point of the masks is to prevent droplet spread, which carry bacteria as well as viruses.
― I am a free. I am not man. A number. (Neanderthal), Wednesday, 27 May 2020 23:37 (three years ago) link
basic knowledge of droplet kinetics, dictate that wearing masks most likely provides a small benefit that, considered at the scale of all of american society, probably translates to many lives saved.
― k3vin k.
now we're talking, thank you sir
― sleeve, Thursday, 28 May 2020 02:42 (three years ago) link
link from another M.D. friend:
After evidence revealed that airborne transmission by asymptomatic individuals might be a key driver in the global spread of COVID-19, the WHO recommended universal use of face masks. Masks provide a critical barrier, reducing the number of infectious viruses in exhaled breath, especially of asymptomatic people and those with mild symptoms (12) (see the figure). Surgical mask material reduces the likelihood and severity of COVID-19 by substantially reducing airborne viral concentrations (13). Masks also protect uninfected individuals from SARS-CoV-2 aerosols (12, 13). Thus, it is particularly important to wear masks in locations with conditions that can accumulate high concentrations of viruses, such as health care settings, airplanes, restaurants, and other crowded places with reduced ventilation. The aerosol filtering efficiency of different materials, thicknesses, and layers used in properly fitted homemade masks was recently found to be similar to that of the medical masks that were tested (14). Thus, the option of universal masking is no longer held back by shortages.[...]
Aerosol transmission of viruses must be acknowledged as a key factor leading to the spread of infectious respiratory diseases. Evidence suggests that SARS-CoV-2 is silently spreading in aerosols exhaled by highly contagious infected individuals with no symptoms. Owing to their smaller size, aerosols may lead to higher severity of COVID-19 because virus-containing aerosols penetrate more deeply into the lungs (10). It is essential that control measures be introduced to reduce aerosol transmission.
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/05/27/science.abc6197
― sleeve, Thursday, 28 May 2020 04:51 (three years ago) link
i did not realise that the federal govt spent 10s of millions to help develop remdesivir:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/26/remdesivir-coronavirus-taxpayers/
― Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Thursday, 28 May 2020 08:31 (three years ago) link
sigh
More than 100 scientists and clinicians have questioned the authenticity of a massive hospital database that was the basis for an influential paper published last week that suggested the use of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine to treat people with Covid-19 did not help and may have increased the risk of abnormal heart rhythms and death.In an open letter addressed to The Lancet’s editor, Richard Horton, and the paper’s authors, they asked the journal to provide details about the provenance of the data and called for the study to be independently validated by the World Health Organization or another institution.
In an open letter addressed to The Lancet’s editor, Richard Horton, and the paper’s authors, they asked the journal to provide details about the provenance of the data and called for the study to be independently validated by the World Health Organization or another institution.
― Karl Malone, Friday, 29 May 2020 15:12 (three years ago) link
To paraphrase Didier Raoult, the French doctor who started it all, ‘I dare you, run a poll between me and Véran [France’s minister of health], we’ll see who comes out on top’.
― pomenitul, Friday, 29 May 2020 15:16 (three years ago) link
the sad thing about this controversy is it's all centering around a paper that, due to the limits of its design, should not change our view of whether HCQ/CQ works one way or another
― k3vin k., Friday, 29 May 2020 16:00 (three years ago) link
Senator Bob Casey Jr., Democrat of Pennsylvania, announced he has tested positive for coronavirus antibodies after experiencing mild symptoms. He’s the third senator known to have a confirmed case.
― Karl Malone, Friday, 29 May 2020 16:06 (three years ago) link
xpost seriously - even if the study was flawed, there isn't a (non-discredited) study which shows that it IS.
and my friend who takes a maintenance prescription for HCQ actually had his latest RX reduced to 30 pills instead of 90 as his carrier cited there was a shortage in availability, presumably due to the extra people taking it for COVID-19.
― I am a free. I am not man. A number. (Neanderthal), Friday, 29 May 2020 16:08 (three years ago) link
same, i have a friend with lupus who takes it
― methinks dababy doth bop shit too much (m bison), Friday, 29 May 2020 17:06 (three years ago) link
If the one human trial is a good indicator, the efficacy of remdesivir against COVID-19 is very modest. According to that WaPo article, the 'break even' cost for the patent-holding company could be around $1/dose. The eventual price should reflect those two factors... but will it?
― A is for (Aimless), Friday, 29 May 2020 17:20 (three years ago) link
Martin Shkreli to thread
― beelzebubbly (Ye Mad Puffin), Friday, 29 May 2020 17:20 (three years ago) link
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-monkeys-escape-with-covid-19-samples-after-attacking-lab-assistant-11996752
― What fash heil is this? (wins), Friday, 29 May 2020 17:49 (three years ago) link
Did not have that one on my 2020 dumpster fire bingo card.
― soaring skrrrtpeggios (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Friday, 29 May 2020 17:53 (three years ago) link
come ON
― Yanni Xenakis (Hadrian VIII), Friday, 29 May 2020 18:06 (three years ago) link
Looks like Trump made good on his threat and is going to pull the US out of the WHO.
― pomenitul, Friday, 29 May 2020 19:28 (three years ago) link
They should tell him they need six months’ notice.
― santa clause four (suzy), Friday, 29 May 2020 19:31 (three years ago) link
so now researchers have figured out how COVID-19 causes so many different symptoms in different organs: It is a disease of the blood vessels. They hope that this will point toward possible treatments.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30937-5/fulltext
― DJI, Monday, 1 June 2020 23:45 (three years ago) link
Toward the end:
This hypothesis provides a rationale for therapies to stabilise the endothelium while tackling viral replication, particularly with anti-inflammatory anti-cytokine drugs, ACE inhibitors, and statins.
Presumably, since this article was listed as published in late April, this treatment strategy has been attempted in some cases and some preliminary data collected, even if there have not been any trials. I wonder how its going.
― A is for (Aimless), Tuesday, 2 June 2020 00:31 (three years ago) link
people keep touting this blood vessel angle since then but i haven't seen anything really decisive on it (not that i've been paying as much attention the past couple few weeks)
― j., Tuesday, 2 June 2020 00:53 (three years ago) link
not now ebola
https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/01-06-2020-new-ebola-outbreak-detected-in-northwest-democratic-republic-of-the-congo-who-surge-team-supporting-the-response
― mark s, Tuesday, 2 June 2020 10:05 (three years ago) link
USA deaths: after 5 weeks of steady decline, the 7-day moving average is trending positive for the first time since late-April.
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Tuesday, 2 June 2020 17:17 (three years ago) link
what a nightmare
I'm dreading the numbers 4-6 weeks from now
― Yanni Xenakis (Hadrian VIII), Tuesday, 2 June 2020 17:28 (three years ago) link
average new cases and hospitalizations have been ticking up in Austin over the last week+
― Mario Meatwagon (Moodles), Tuesday, 2 June 2020 19:08 (three years ago) link
everything plateaued, so they opened things up without letting real decreases happen, genius move
― Mario Meatwagon (Moodles), Tuesday, 2 June 2020 19:09 (three years ago) link
In all fairness, what even is a "plateau"
― I am a free. I am not man. A number. (Neanderthal), Tuesday, 2 June 2020 19:25 (three years ago) link
In this context, I believe it means something like 'when people really really want to start doing normal things again, no seriously like really a lot, do you even know how boring it is being inside all the time'.
― Fun-Loving and Furry-Curious! (Old Lunch), Tuesday, 2 June 2020 19:28 (three years ago) link
Nothing on the top but a bucket and a mopAnd an illustrated book about birds
― pomenitul, Tuesday, 2 June 2020 19:29 (three years ago) link
otm
― valet doberman (Jon not Jon), Tuesday, 2 June 2020 20:21 (three years ago) link
where is charley harper when we need him most
― Fuck the NRA (ulysses), Tuesday, 2 June 2020 20:27 (three years ago) link
I've hardly thought about COVID all week (and yes, "I'm dreading the numbers 4-6 weeks from now"). Has this been posted on any of the relevant threads?
http://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-06-03-20-intl/h_d9360b4e277953a4490fa5ee17285938
He's always seemed pretty cautious with such pronouncements.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 3 June 2020 14:55 (three years ago) link
The plan is to manufacture doses of the vaccine even before it is clear whether the vaccines work, making close to 100 million doses by November or December, Fauci said. That’s so if it does work, it can be deployed quickly.
― Matt DC, Wednesday, 3 June 2020 15:00 (three years ago) link
I saw that after I posted--he still sounds optimistic.
“Which tells us, that if the body is capable of making an immune response to clear the virus of natural infection, that’s a pretty good proof of concept,” Fauci said. “Having said that, there is never a guarantee.”
He was a 12-18 months person early on with regards to a vaccine, so early 2021 almost fits that timeline--maybe 2-3 months ahead.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 3 June 2020 15:04 (three years ago) link
"The US should have 100 million doses of one candidate Covid-19 vaccine by the end of the year, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and a member of the White House coronavirus task force, said Tuesday.
“Then, by the beginning of 2021, we hope to have a couple hundred million doses,” Fauci said during a live question and answer session with the Journal of the American Medical Association.
uh, what happens between the end of this year and the beginning of 2021? do all other objects get doubled as well? might be a good time to put all your money out on the lawn, make a quick profit for the new year
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 3 June 2020 15:55 (three years ago) link
lol
― all cats are beautiful (silby), Wednesday, 3 June 2020 15:58 (three years ago) link
please touch the Orb of Doubling again Mr. President
― frogbs, Wednesday, 3 June 2020 16:01 (three years ago) link
but the Orb of Doubling carries a 10% chance of losing it all!!
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 3 June 2020 16:02 (three years ago) link